PLA: Implementing the CCP Mandate

Col. R. Hariharan

This paper was presented by Col Hariharan at the Third Annual Conference on “Inside China 2013: New Leadership, Social Changes and Economic Challenges,” jointly organised at New Delhi by the C3S, India International Centre, New Delhi, Institute of Policy and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi, Department of East Asia Studies, Delhi University, and Centre for East Asia Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, on September 6, 2013 at New Delhi.

INTRODUCTION

The long process of China’s Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) modernisation going on since 1978 is conditioned by three things: Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s mandate, national leadership’s guidance, and the dynamics of strategic environment in which the PLA is expected to operate. 

The 18th National Congress of the CCP held in November 2012 brought in fifth generation leaders in a thorough makeover of the national leadership. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang brought in to the politburo standing committee replaced Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao as President and Premier respectively in March 2013. Thus in the next decade or so the PLA modernization process will be guided by the 18th Congress deliberations, under the new leadership according to the strategic environment visualized by them. [1] 

After deliberating on issues, the 18th CCP Congress Work Report identified the broad contours of PLA’s strategic modernization as:

“Building strong national defense and powerful armed forces that are commensurate with China’s international standing and meet the needs of its security and development interests is a strategic task of China’s modernization drive.

“We should attach great importance to maritime, space and cyberspace security. We should make active planning for the use of military forces in peacetime, expand and intensify military preparedness, and enhance the capability to accomplish a wide range of military tasks, the most important of which is to win local war in an information age.”[2]

Translated in military terms, the Congress visualized PLA modernization as a continuous process in keeping with the strategic needs of China to enhance its global power projection. Its stress on maritime, space and cyberspace security are closely linked to informatization process already underway to bring PLA on par with modern armies of the West, particularly the U.S. The digitization process of PLA will go hand in hand as part of the “four modernizations” – the strategic direction provided by Deng Xiaoping for his holistic development vision in the fields of agriculture, industry, national defence, and science and technology. This enables the PLA modernization process to take advantage of the gains of national development.

PLA’s peace time employment envisaged by the Congress would be to further improve its competence in military operations other than warfare (MOOTW) that will include disaster relief as well assistance to the Peoples’ Armed Police (PAP) to handle internal unrest and counter terrorism tasks whenever required. Continued participation of PLA in UN peace keeping operations and anti-piracy missions would be in keeping with China’s growing international influence and desire to increase its international profile as a responsible global power.

PLA and the new leadership

President Xi Jinping in his first address made to the nation on March 17, 2013 as head of state spoke of the Chinese dream. He said “We must make persistent efforts, press ahead with indomitable will, continue to push forward the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and strive to achieve the Chinese dream of great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. “To realise the Chinese road, we must spread the Chinese spirit, which combines the spirit of the nation with patriotism as the core and the spirit of the time with reform and innovation as the core,” he added. 

Since becoming President, Xi had been travelling far and wide throughout the country from Shenzhen “Special Economic Zone” of in the south where China’s economic revolution started to arid Gansu in the North one of the poorest provinces. He has been visiting military training institutions, PLA establishments and naval ships to spread his Chinese dream. Evidently Xi’s Chinese dream will have reform and innovation as ingredients in both economic and strategic security content.

The idea is reflected in retired PLA Colonel Liu Mingfu’s book The China Dream: Great Power Thinking and Strategic Posture in the Post-America Era in 2010. He says “Since the 19th Century, China has been lagging on the world stage….President Xi’s dream is of a stronger nation with a strong military.”[3]

Even before Xi became President in March 2013, as general secretary of the Central Committee of the CCP he had “vowed to unswervingly fight against corruption and keep power reined within the cage of regulations” while addressing a plenary meeting of the CCP’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) on January 22, 2013. He “ordered enhanced restraint and supervision on the use of power.” He stressed, “Power should be restricted by the cage of regulations.”

According to a Global Times report, he asked “efforts to strengthen national anti-corruption legislation and relevant intra-Party regulations to ensure national organs exercise their power within the boundary of laws”.[4] According to the report Xi said “the CPC’s resolve and distinct attitude on handling serious rule-breaking among some of its cadres, including high-ranking officials, showed it is “absolutely no empty talk” that one will be severely punished for law or Party discipline violations no matter how high a person’s official ranking is.”

On June 18, 2013 Xi called for a ‘mass line’ for co-jointing the interests of the Party with the people in a year-long campaign for a “thorough cleanup” of undesirable work styles such as formalism, bureaucratism, hedonism, and extravagance. (Top leaders of the CCP launched the ‘mass line’ from the second half of the year to cement Party-people ties.).Xi also stressed the CCP members should be critical and self-critical in the spirit of rectifying improper work styles and the campaign should focus on self-purification, self-renewal and self-progression. This jargon reminiscent of Maoist days clearly indicates the Party’s and Xi’s desire to improve the Party members’ ideological commitment, discipline, eradicate corruption and improve their contact with the people.

As a creature of the Party it is impacting the PLA also. This evident from a circular issued by the PLA General Political Department said Xi’s speech showed that the CCP was “consciously adaptable to changing times and can maintain its advanced nature and purity.” Xi’s speech should be studied and combined with the spirit of the CCP’s 18th National Congress, adding that “the minds and actions of the armed forces” should be unified with decisions made by the central leadership”, it added. [5]

According to a Xinhua report of July 22, 2013 President Xi called for unswerving efforts to strengthen relations between military officers and common soldiers through a campaign inside the military. The campaign, which was initiated in April, requires senior PLA officers and the armed police to live and train as common soldiers for at least 15 days in grassroots units every one to five years, depending on their rank. Xi said the campaign will help promote military traditions, improve its work style, strengthen ties between officers and soldiers and reinforce the “construction” of grassroots military units. It also said the PLA General Political Department had issued orders for military officers to solve problems of soldiers and grassroots military units during the campaign. Officers must reflect on their responsibilities and problems through the campaign and make their work more scientific and efficient. The campaign will be part of the implementation of the “mass line,” the Party guideline under which officials and members of the Party are required to “prioritize the interests of the people and continue to represent them and work on their behalf,” it added.

Clearly President Xi’s aim is to prevent development of elitism among Party leaders and military officers lest they lose touch with ordinary people. In this context Xi Jinping’s observations on PLA-Party relationship and PLA soldiers’ professionalism during a visit to the Beijing Military Region headquarters on July 29, 2013 are of interest. According to Xinhua he said, “We must make sure that troops obey the command of the Party and are absolutely loyal and reliable”….Officials and soldiers “especially those medium-level and senior officials” should be educated on consciously sticking to political belief, stance and discipline. He further stated, “They should maintain high-level unity with CPC Central Committee and the Central Military Commission any time and under any circumstances, and resolutely obey their command.” Currently and in the near future an important task in the regard is to strengthen efforts of promoting the goal of building a strong military, Xi said. Combat capability was the only and fundamental measure of the troops, urging accelerated steps to enhance the military’s strength based on information technology. [6]

To summarize, President Xi Jinping’s aim appears to be to ensure the PLA modernization process, which is bringing a lot of graduates and technical people with specialized roles into armed forces, does not encourage Bonapartist tendencies but sustain PLA’s total commitment to the Party.

Visualization of PLA’s role

China’s Defence White Paper 2013 visualizes the nature of China’s national defence policy and PLA’s strategic role as: “China unswervingly pursues an independent foreign policy of peace and a national defence policy that is defensive in nature…. China will never seek hegemony or behave in a hegemonic manner, nor will it engage in military expansion… China’s armed forces provide a security guarantee and strategic support for national development, and make due contributions to the maintenance of world peace and regional stability” [7].

Its stress on the defensive nature of China’s national defence policy and avowal “never to seek hegemony” are only a reiteration of its views of the past. However, it has become necessary now on two counts. China’s loud power assertion of territorial claims in South China Sea and its never-ending territorial pin pricks along its unsettled border with India have increased international perception of China as a bully out to destabilize Asia-Pacific region and South Asia. This has led to the U.S. increasing its strategic readiness in China’s neighbourhood with more powerful neighbours like Japan, India and Vietnam realigning their strategic equations with each other.

DS Rajan in his paper on PLA modernization sees this as China’s military strategy undergoing “a fresh elaboration of operational tasks for the PLA.” [8] According to him the four demands being made now on the military are:

• To conduct ‘Historical Missions in the New Period of the New Century’ involving non-combat operations such as peacekeeping and disaster relief, as President Hu Jintao, said in 2004. This is in keeping with China’s growing global interests and desire to be seen as a global power. 
• To protect the country’s ‘core interests.’ These include maintaining fundamental and state security, safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and ensuring continued stable development of economy and society.
• To build new type of combat capability to win local wars in conditions of informatization and strengthen the composite development of mechanization and informatization, with the latter as leading force.’ This implies integrating C4ISR systems in mechanized forces command, control, deployment and operations and integrating air and naval support.
• To ‘build strong army that is capable of winning wars and strengthening combat readiness.’

STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF MODERNISATION

The ongoing process of evolution of PLA as a modern fighting force started in 1977 after ten traumatic years of Cultural Revolution played havoc with PLA’s cohesiveness. PLA’s strategic modernization falls in four convenient time zones: [9]

1. Period of implosion (1966-76): During this period of Cultural Revolution played havoc with the cohesiveness and operational capabilities of PLA. Military training came to a grinding halt and most of the training establishments were closed down. As a result of political preoccupation, PLA’s command and control structure broke down with specialists and officers denounced as ‘bourgeois. 
2.  Period of introspection and recovery (1977-85): The failure of the PLA in 1979 Vietnam War shook up the leadership leading to introspection on revamping PLA. Military influence on Party was brought down. PLA representation on the politburo and military membership in the Central Committee were progressively brought down to lay stress on professionalism. PLA training institutions were reorganized and the value of defence education was recognized. National Defence University was formed by merging the PLA Military Academy, the PLA Political Academy and the PLA Logistics Academy to promote ‘jointness’ in the PLA. The first simulated combat exercise was held in 1985.
3. Period of strategic rethinking (1985-95): After PLA formations were restructured creating group armies. Training system was further revamped to complement simulated combat exercises. Recruit training was improved. The Gulf and Kosovo wars introduced to PLA the emerging informatized battlefields of the future. In 1995 President Jiang Zemin conceptualized the focus on “two transformations” – fighting and winning local wars under “informatized” conditions, and becoming a force based on quality instead of quantity. To achieve this both the government and the PLA began “to cultivate a new generation of officers capable and competent.” 
4.  Period of strategic change (1995 onwards): Chinese leadership realized the imperatives of hi-tech environment in warfare after U.S. invasion of Iraq and war on terror in Afghanistan. It realized embracing informatized and digitized environment would enable PLA take a leap forward in modernization without waiting for full mechanization. To improve the quality of officers, recruitment of college graduates became the norm. Training of PLA personnel in civilian institutions was also introduced to speed up informatization and digitization to suit 21st century warfare needs.

PLA’s strategic challenges and response

China considers the U.S. as key contender in its power projection. Considering this, the PLA would be keenly analyzing some of the tasks visualized by the U.S. from time to time. The U.S.’s strategic realignments and developments in tactical doctrines and integrated warfare systems would be of special interest to the PLA. 

Of course, China has publicized its rapid advances in science and technology which have speeded up PLA’s modernization process. Of strategic interest are the following developments: [10]

• Rapid progress has been made in reconnaissance and surveillance capability using unarmed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and satellite resources with the positioning of China’s16 Beidou satellites. They now cover the entire area across China and the Asia-Pacific and we can expect South Asia also to come under its coverage as more countries are opting for Beidou communication satellites. Trefor Moss writing in the Diplomat has reported that the China’s maritime agency – the State Oceanic Administration(SOA) – was setting up 11 UAV bases (one in each coastal province) to be ready by 2015.[11]

• Up gradation of PLA Navy (PLAN) fleet strength with more submarine and surface platforms and better anti-aircraft and anti-ship systems in place is progressing well. The Navy’s fleet operation outside the South China Sea is taking its baby steps. While the newly inducted Liaoning aircraft carrier is trying out landing of fighter jets, we can expect a carrier based PLAN fleet streaming in Indian Ocean in the coming years.

•  PLAN had been operating anti-piracy operational task forces since 2008 in Gulf of Aden. Though China had been projecting it as part of the international effort to fight piracy, these operations have refined PLAN’s fleet operational capability in international waters. PLAN ships have also been exposed to an entirely new experience of operating in coordination with ships of Indian Navy and Japanese Self Defence Force on anti-piracy duties in the area.

• According to the U.S. Department of Defense “The road-mobile, solid-propellant CSS-10 Mod 1 and CSS-10 Mod 2 (DF-31 and DF-31A) intercontinental-range ballistic missiles have entered service. The CSS-10 Mod 2, with a range in excess of 11,200 km, can reach most locations within the continental United States. China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV).”[12]

• Although PLAAF flight tested J-20, its first stealth aircraft in 2011, the U.S. Department of Defense assesses “China’s first fifth generation fighter is not expected to enter service prior to 2018, and China faces numerous challenges to achieving full operational capability, including developing high-performance jet engines.”[13]

• Similarly PLAAF which is refining its joint warfare capability, is said to be facing problems in providing accurate ground support using C4I systems as precision guided munitions (PGM) for accurate air strike is yet to be developed.

PLA training exercises 2012-13

PLA training exercises during 2012-13 provide an indication of how it is preparing to meet the strategic challenges. These exercises have been growing in complexity and size over the years. Of special interest are the trans-military region (MR) exercises by PLA along with PLAAF that have been undertaken since 2008. Jinan MR has emerged as central to these exercises indicating its role as strategic reserve. These exercises have shown China’s ability to move large forces using rail and civilian infrastructure and logistics over long distances.

According to a U.S. War College report of 2012, “These exercises have allowed the PLA to experiment with operational techniques in areas such as command and control for joint operations, operations in a complex electromagnetic environment, the formation of combined arms battalion task forces, and logistics support. Thus, trans-MR exercises contribute not only to PLA capabilities but also to China’s overall deterrence posture and are important signifiers of overall PLA development and modernization exercises”[14]

China-Russia joint military exercises 2013

China in response to the changes in the international security environment in its neighbourhood has been carrying out war games with Russia. It carried out two joint military exercises with Russia in 2013, namely the “China-Russia Maritime Joint Exercise 2013” and the “Peace Mission 2013.”

Peace Mission 2013 was held in Chelyabinsk in Urals in Russia from July 27 to August 15, 2013 with battalion sized combat groups from Shenyan Military Area Command and Russia’s Central Military Area Command participated in the exercise. JH-A fighter bombers of PLAAF and Su-24 fighters of Russian air force participated in the exercise. The objective of the exercise was ostensibly to jointly train and exercise in planning and carrying out counter terrorism operations. But considering the battalion combat group training supported by armour and air force, probably the objective was to refine BCT operations jointly with air force in a C4I environment. It is significant as the PLA took part in training in another country and transported its troops over large distances.

The Sino-Russian maritime joint exercise termed as China’s “largest ever joint naval exercise” was carried out in the Sea of Japan in the second week of July 2013. with the participation of 18 surface ships including four guided missile destroyers, two missile frigates, a supply ship and three-ship born helicopters, and a submarine. According to Xinhua, Major General Yang Junfei, the Chinese fleet’s commander, said: “This is our strongest line-up ever in a joint naval drill.” China was sending “seven ships, three helicopters and one special warfare unit”, he added. The exercise was to simulate “recapturing ships seized by pirates, as well as search-and-rescue operations and a number of air defence, anti-submarine and anti-ship exercises,” Xinhua reported. Two commando units also took part in the exercise.

Apart from its relevance of this joint exercise to the growing Chinese confrontation with Japan and Philippines in South China Sea, these exercises are sure to enhance the fleet operation, assault landing and joint operation techniques of PLAN.

Peoples’ Armed Police (PAP) exercises

Considering the growing counter terrorism requirements in its western borders, the PAP has increased its training on counterterrorism, riot control, border control, and natural disaster response operations. They are now better trained and equipped than before. The PAP training appears to be focusing on operating in integration with other ground forces in informatization setting. This will enhance PAP’s capacity during wartime as they provide light infantry support to the PLA and be ready to respond to civil unrest that may accompany an external threat in Xinjiang and Tibet.

CONCLUSION

The CCP under the new leadership of Xi Jinping is striving to tighten the Party discipline, fight corruption and improve the linkages between the Party and the people. PLA as the sword arm of the Party will also being impacted by these measures. His approach to the PLA appears to be to ensure the modernization process which is bringing a lot of graduates and technical people with specialized roles conforms to its total commitment to the Party.

As a continuous process, PLA modernization is progressing well to take on expanding roles and missions in keeping with China’s increasing global influence and power. Having completed the restructuring of forces and increased their fire power and mobility, PLA’s stress on informatization and digitization will be to improve its BCT capabilities with air support, increase its strategic mobility, and firepower using missiles on land air and sea. This will be in keeping with China’s increasing power assertion in its neighbourhood and enlarging ambitions to be recognized as a global power.

Some of the areas of development to watch would be PGM, fifth generation fighters, conventional missiles anti-ship cruise missiles, counter-space weapons, and military cyberspace capabilities. These would enhance PLA’s to take on anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) missions.

The PLA’s sophisticated training and exercises involving land forces, navy, and air force have enhanced its capability to carryout long-range conventional strike and regional power projection. The rapid modernisation of PLAN with greater operational exposure is enhancing China’s ability to project its power beyond the Near Seas. In the coming years the commissioning of China’s first aircraft carrier Liaoning with integrated air defence and submarine capabilities would further extend its power projection capabilities.

[Col R Hariharan is a retired MI officer specialising in South Asia and its neighbourhood. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and South Asia Analysis Group. Email:colhari@yahoo.com Blog: www.colhariharan.org].

Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China studies Paper No.1191 dated September 14, 2013 http://www.c3sindia.org/china-internal/3705

Notes

[1] Xinhua report, November 15, 2012 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/special
[2] www.news.xinhuanet.com 17 November 2012
[3] BBC June 5, 2013 http://www.bbc.co.uk/world-asia-china-22726375
[4] Global Times, ‘Xi Jinping vows power within the cage of regulations.’ http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/757583.shtml
[5] Quoted from South Asia Security Trends, July 2013 issue, www.security-risks.com
[6] South Asia Security Trends, July 2013 issue, www.security-risks.com
[7] China’s Defence White Paper, April 2013 quoted by DS Rajan from “The Diversified Employment of China’s Armed Forces, Information Office of the State Council, People’s Republic of China, 16 April 2013 in “China: Enigmatic military modernization programme” C3S Paper No. 1148, May 9, 2013 www.c3scindia.org
[8] As above
[9] Adapted from DS Rajan’s C3S paper quoted above and Kemphausen and others ed., The People in the PLA: Recruitment, Training, and Education in China’s Military, a study of the PLA human infrastructure by Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, 2008.
[10] Extracted from Forecast of U.S. Army Tasks 2013, U.S. Department of Defense.
[11] Trefor Moss, Here come…China’s Drones, The Diplomat, March 2, 2013 http://thediplomat.com/2013/03/02/here-comes-chinas-drones
[12] The 2013 China Report submitted by the U.S. Department of Defense to the U.S. Congress.
[13] As above
[14] Kemphausen and others ed., Learning by Training: The PLA training at home abroad, by Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, 2012.

The legacy of Gen VK Singh

The just completed tenure of General VK Singh as Chief of Army Staff will be remembered as an epoch making one. It was marked by a series of controversies as single handedly he tried to clean up an entrenched corrupt system. I am reproducing an interesting analysis of the legacy General VK Singh leaves behind by Lt General Harwant Singh, former Deputy Chief of Army Staff, that had appeared in the Hindustan Times (Chandigarh edition) for your reading.                                               

Gen VK Singh's legacy

By  Lt-Gen Harwant Singh ( Retd )
                     
Much has been written in the press and much more discussed on TV channels as to Gen VK Singh’s legacy. Equally there have been controversies and allegations on his conduct, relations with the MoD and with senior officers within the army. It is time to examine the issues in their correct perspective and close this chapter of accusations and counter charges. 

Downside of Media 'scoop' on National Security

By Col. R. Hariharan 

The controversy surrounding the outgoing Army Chief General V. K. Singh’s revelations in the last two months provided an excellent opportunity for the Indian Express Editor’s cleverly constructed “scoop” hinting at the panic created in New Delhi when two military units – a mechanized column and a parachute battalion - moved towards the capital on January 16. Its innuendoes at the establishment’s suspicion about the loyalty of the army drew nation-wide attention. It is significant that a factual news story on lessons army learnt from the same military movement published a month earlier in a news website failed to get the same attention. 

What is the state of readiness of our troops -4

Continuing the series of articles on the subject, are agents of arms dealers the real culprits for the glitches in our defence procurement? Contrary to many analysts, I hold the view the legitimate agents provide a valuable interface to understand the needs of the user and identify the right sources for procurement. They should be paid a legitimate commission like any other agents in the commercial world. As they are legitimate, transaction will be above board and accountable. They will be paying income and service taxes and their accounts will be open for inspection at any time. This will bring transparency in the transaction.

In 1986, Government of India removed agents as the middle men and decided to directly deal with arms manufacturers. The species of honest middlemen was kept out and under the table wheeler-dealers tookover. And immediately thereafter the Bofors scam hit the national headlines. There seem to be no stopping of scams.

I am reproducing an article, courtesy DNA India, "Confessions of a former arms dealer" written by a former naval officer in support of my argument. The article shows how a legitimate agent can provide valuable service to the armed forces. When we reform the system (WHEN?  is the 64 dollar question), this aspect should also be paid attention.

Confessions of a former arms dealer

Benoy Bhushan, April 4, 2012

What is the state of readiness of our troops - 3

As muckraking continues in the media with the Army Chief General VK Singh as the centre piece, one thing is clear. All is not well the way manage our defence services and run the defence ministry; and it is affecting national security preparedness.

What is the way out? I am reproducing here a pithy article from TR Ramaswami, a retired bureaucrat, who has come out with a workable solution, courtesy Economic Times 

But who is blocking the change? Sheela Bhatt writing in www.rediff.com contends it is the bureaucracy which wants to preserve their hold and are loath to allow any change. If you are interested read her article "Babus now oppose General Singh's vision for MoD" available at URL:

http://www.rediff.com/news/special/babus-now-oppose-general-singhs-vision-for-mod/20120405.htm

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Defence sector needs to be streamlined and reformed to stay relevant in a changing India

T R Ramaswami, Apr 5, 2012

The leaky-weaky-snafu-cum-imbroglio in the defence sector has provoked very interesting reactions and suggestions. Historically, armies have been around millenniums before the words 'democracy', 'parliament' and 'civil service' came about.

What is the state of readiness of our troops - 2

The unseemly controversy surrounding the Army Chief General VK Singh does not seem to be dying out. It got further complicated when a front page scoop in the Indian Express by the editor-in-chief, hinted at New Delhi's panic reaction when two army units moved towards New Delhi the day General VK Singh's case came up for judgement in the Supreme Court. Although, the sensational story was of dubious construction, and vehemently denied by the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister, the damage has been done to the reputation of the Army Chief and the Army - the innuendoes questioning their patriotism was obvious.

In this context, I am reproducing another article by General VP Malik, former Chief of Army Staff, that appeared in the Tehelka today, courtesy Tehelka Magazine for your reading.   

Army should not look like it's losing its values

VP Malik, Former Chief Of Army Staff

As A former Chief of Army Staff, I have no hesitation in admitting that the unprecedented events of the last few days have deeply damaged the reputation of a very precious institution. One is tempted to say in despair, what is left?

Storm Signals on National Security

by Col.  R. Hariharan 

“Army chief’s letter bomb” screamed TV anchors when leaked contents of a letter from the Army Chief of Army Staff General VK Singh addressed to the Prime Minister reached the media. In his letter he had made ten points to show that the army’s fighting capability. The Army Chief listed ten points which have rendered the army ineffective to face threats to national security. All of them related the lack of timely procurements of armaments and ammunition to the troops. 

The reaction to this national security fiasco in parliament was typical. Many members including the Right and Left, spent more time on the danger posed to national security by the leak, than its damaging contents. Some members like the Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lallu Prasad Yadav, who was no paragon of probity, wanted the Army Chief to be sacked summarily for leaking the letter, without even bothering to find out who did it. His cohorts from UP and Bihar of the Samajwadi Party and Janata Dal (U) echoed the same sentiments.

Strategic power play in Myanmar

By Col R Hariharan

The US Secretary of State Ms Hilary Clinton’s recent visit to Myanmar, the first ever of its kind in the last five decades, is likely to be a turning point in the estranged relationship between the two countries. And that could bring the US-China power play closer home to Myanmar.

Myanmar President Thein Sein had been taking many positive steps to establish the government’s democratic credentials. And as Ms Clinton’s visit comes after a lot of preparatory work by US representatives, Myanmar had high expectations from the visit. From news reports after her visit, the chances of the two countries resuming normal relations in the near future appear to have become brighter.

China's Impact on India-Nepal Relations

By Col R Hariharan

The increasingly loud and belligerent assertion of China’s claims in South China has become a matter of strategic concern for many nations for diverse reasons. It comes at a time when nations with diverse interest in the Southeast Asia from the India to Vietnam to Japan and the U.S. are already concerned about China’s growing strategic strength. Even other nations of the ASEAN group, who do not vocalise their concerns over this development for reasons of real politick, are equally uncomfortable though China is fully established as a trading partner among them.  The recent U.S.-Australian agreement to station U.S. Marines in bases in Australia is directly related to this concern.

For India, it sends clear message of China’s sensitivity to India’s efforts at upgrading its relations in Southeast Asia. Read in the light of escalating strategic collaboration between China and Pakistan including the involvement of PLA troops in the construction of strategic road links in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, and build up of PLA force levels in Tibet with better strategic access to Indian borders, the possibility of Chinese belligerence  shifting to India’s Himalayan frontiers has increased.

What is the 'Real Axis of Evil'?

The phrase ‘Axis of Evil’ coined in the wake of rise of Al Qaeda, means many things to many people. But what is the real ‘Axis of Evil’ that India should be worried about?

Well-known counter-terrorism expert B Raman’s examines this core concern while discussing the issue of terrorism in the context of India-Pakistan relations in his mail interview with Jahanzeb Aslam  published in Newsweek Pakistan. His comment “India is fully capable of dealing with Pakistan and has no concerns. What we are worried about is the increasing strategic threat from the developing Sino-Pakistani axis….This developing axis is the real axis of evil.” is noteworthy. Excerpts of the interview titled “The Real Axis of Evil”  is reproduced here for your reading. 

Excerpts:

What has India’s role been in the U.S.-led war on terror?

India’s primary role is exchange of intelligence, knowledge, experience and capabilities, and mutual assistance in legal matters with interested countries, including the U.S.

Pakistan's army: Divided it stands

[Recently I read a provocative analysis by Pervez Hoodbhoy on what is happening in Pakistan and how Pakistan army has contributed to the present state of disorder there. I am sharing it here with the readers. It presents a scary picture because an unstable Pakistan is a potential danger not only for India but South Asia as a whole.] 

By Pervez Hoodbhoy, 12 August 2011 

[Why is the Army getting weaker? The problem is not the lack of materiel – guns, bombs, men, and money. These have relatively easy fixes. Instead it is the military’s diminished moral power and authority, absence of charismatic leadership, and visibly evident accumulation of property and wealth. More than anything else, the Army has sought to please both the Americans as well as their enemies] 

Pakistan bleeds from a thousand cuts. If things had gone according to plan it is India that should have been hurting now, not Pakistan. The army’s 25 years-old low-cost, high-impact strategy of covert warfare would have liberated Kashmir and secured Afghanistan from Indian influence.

Can India do an operation like the US did in Abbottabad?

 

By Col R Hariharan

Can Indian security forces carry out a special operation like the US SEALS did in Abbottabad?

The US SEALS struck within the backyard of Pak military establishment but in 40 minutes killed the most wanted terrorist of the decade Osama bin Laden. As the TV and other media had a field day covering the operation and its aftermath, the inevitable question why can't India carryout an operation like that to catch any of the 20-odd India's most wanted terrorists hiding in Pakistan was raised.

In answering it we must be realistic; we should not even contemplate such overseas special operations unless we fulfil three basic parameters for their success: strong national leadership with decision making ability as demonstrated by President Obama, realtime intelligence about the target before, during and after the operations, and technical support system including air lift and communication for special forces. I fear at present we do not fulfil any of these three basic parameters.

Sri Lanka Perspectives - November 2010

 By Col R Hariharan (Retd.)

POLITICAL

Swearing of the President

Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn in as President for a second term on Nov 19, 2010. In a marked departure from the austere swearing-ins of the past, this time it had all the trappings of a coronation. After the swearing-in, colourful celebrations included a military parade with a fly-past of air force jets, a special display by Navy and a cultural display.  The pompous nationwide celebrations with huge cut outs of Rajapaksa showed that orchestration of  Rajapaksa personality cult is well under way and is likely to gather momentum.

Notable foreign representatives on the occasion included Bhutanese Prime Minister Lyonchhen Jigmi Thinley, Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Sang Giuowei and Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Hu Zhengyue, and Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed. India was represented by Minister of State for External Affairs Ms Parmit Kaur. In a clear departure from past practices, the ceremony started with only Buddhist religious observance instead of multi-faith prayers. The main opposition United National Party boycotted the ceremony.

Jumbo cabinet

President Rajapaksa’s new cabinet has been shaped on the basis of constitutional amendments. DM Jayaratne was made be the Prime Minister setting aside media speculations that President’s brother Basil Rajapaksa would be the choice. Basil will now be handling  planning and development portfolio. For the first time a new category of 'senior ministers' with 11 members has been introduced. They included trusted members of his earlier team. In addition to this 61 cabinet ministers and 31 deputy ministers have also been inducted.

Thus in all 104 members out of 161 members of the President’s United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) have been included in the cabinet! He appears to have accommodated as many members as possible in the cabinet to prevent any defection from the ruling coalition. Apparently, political expedience appears to be the priority rather than efficiency of governance.

In spite of such large number of ministers, the President has retained the vital portfolios of defence, finance and planning, ports and aviation and highways under him. The senior ministers have been given other important portfolios indicating though their attendance at cabinet meetings was optional! The President’s strategy appears to be to keep coalition flock together and allow ministers and deputy ministers to perform only nominally. It indicated Rajapaksa’s lack of faith in retaining of the loyalties of the members of his coalition despite his mass popularity and lack of effective opposition.

Tamil politics

Heroes Day celebration: The deafening silence that greeted November 26, the birthday of Velupillai Prabhakaran, which used to be celebrated by the LTTE and its supporters as Maveerar Naal (Heroes Day) in Tamil areas of Sri Lanka showed the extent of disillusionment with the ideal of a separate Tamil Eelam. A former LTTE leader Athavan, now settled in Vanni, in a poignant statement issued on the occasion castigated the Tamil Diaspora for using the name of Prabhakaran and the Tamil Tigers for selfish reasons unmindful of the plight of former cadres and their families in Sri Lanka.

The Tamil Political Parties Forum (TPPF): All Tamil political parties excluding the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) have formed the TPPF to take up issues affecting Tamils in one voice. A TPPF delegation met President Rajapaksa on Nov 26 and handed over a letter expressing their concerns. The TPPF asked the President to find a political solution to the ethnic question within a united Sri Lanka so that Tamil people can fully participate in the governance in the North and East. “The implementation of the 13th amendment in full will be a positive beginning of the political process in this regard,” the TPPF said. The TNA is also said to be in informal touch with the TPPF so that they can come to a political understanding. Presumably this is in preparation of the Northern Provincial Council elections which are likely to be scheduled in March 2011.

DEFENCE

Joint exercise: Sri Lanka army, navy and air force carried out the first ever joint exercise in the last week of Nov 2010. Around 2500 armed forces personnel participated in the exercise code-named 'Cormorant Strike’ carried out along the coast in area Silawaturai, Mannar in Northern Province. According to defence sources Commando Regiment and Special Forces made amphibious landing during the exercise and participated ground operations. The objective of the exercise was to train leaders at different levels in planning, command and decision making . The selection of the Mannar coast for the regiment-group sized exercise across India’s Rameswaram coast is interesting. Probably the exercise was also to send a warning to LTTE’s international elements trying to revise the Eelam separatist movement among the Diaspora.

LTTE massacre of military prisoners: The army has opened a mass grave in Viswamadu jungle in Mullaitivu district where 26 armed forces personnel who were taken prisoner were shot dead by the LTTE were buried. The prisoners included 18 SLN sailors (including two naval officers) and eight army personnel. The naval prisoners were survivors of a LTTE Sea Tiger attack in 2007 in which Navy lost three Dvora craft. The security forces are in the process of identifying the dead. 

Army de-mining program:  The U.S. has donated US$500,000 worth of items including several vehicles, trucks, ambulances and equipment to Sri Lanka Army providing further assistance of de-mining operations underway in the North. India, Japan, Australia and the U.S. are among the countries assisting de-mining operations. While so far 856,203,415 square meters have been de-mined, parts of Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts still remain to be de-mined.   

FOREIGN AFFAIRS 

Hambantota port inauguration 

President Rajapaksa fresh from a visit to China, formally inaugurated the Hambantota Port on November 18. The just completed Phase-I of the Chinese assisted project was launched in January 2008. The $360 million Phase-I includes a bunker terminal. The Chinese government provided 85% of the funding while the remaining 15% was to be met by the Sri Lanka Ports Authority.  The launch of the second phase of the development of the port is said to have commenced on the same day.

Around 29 companies a majority of them Chinese are reported to have expressed interest in investing in various industries in the Hambantota Port. The Chinese companies have shown interest in manufacture and assembling of automobiles. At present Sri Lanka automobile market is dominated by India and the Chinese entry is likely to pose a stiff competition to the Indians. 

India 

Not to be outdone by China, India is also trying to increase its visibility in Sri Lanka. India’s External Affairs Minister S M Krishna paid a three day visit to Sri Lanka from November 25. He attended the 7^th India-Sri Lanka Joint Commission meeting on November 26 with his Sri Lankan counterpart Prof GL Peiris. According to Indian press note Joint Commission discussions covered all areas of bilateral relevance, including trade, services and investment, development cooperation, science and technology, culture and education. 

Krishna in a media briefing on arrival reminded Sri Lanka on the need for a structured dialogue mechanism with a mutual understanding of both parties in finding a political solution to the ethnic issue. He also said India would continue to assist Sri Lanka on various issues such as resettlement, rehabilitation, de-mining and agriculture development.

He alos inaugurated Indian consulates in Jaffna and Hambantota. While the Jaffna consulate would lessen the hardship of Tamil travellers to India, the Hambantota consulate would facilitate greater trade and investment from India likely when the area around the port develops and marine traffic increases.

Krishna also inaugurated the pilot project to construct 1000 houses for internally displaced people in Vanni. This is a part of India-aided project to construct 50,000 houses. He also flagged off the work on the Medawachchiya-Madhu railway line being constructed by Indian engineers with India’s assistance. Work will also begin simultaneously on the Madhu-Talaimannar and Omanthai-Pallai railway lines, which are being revived with Indian assistance. 

Pakistan President Zardari’s visit

Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari paid a four-day state visit to Sri Lanka at the invitation of President Rajapaksa from November 26. Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, and Defence Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar and a business delegation accompanied the Pak President.

Following bilateral talks between the two presidents, four agreements relating to visa abolition of diplomatic and official passports, agricultural cooperation, and assistance in Customs matters and agreement on the fields on arts and creative studies were signed on November 28.

November 30, 2010

Reproduced from South Asia Security Trends Vol 4 No 11

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