What is the 'Real Axis of Evil'?

The phrase ‘Axis of Evil’ coined in the wake of rise of Al Qaeda, means many things to many people. But what is the real ‘Axis of Evil’ that India should be worried about?

Well-known counter-terrorism expert B Raman’s examines this core concern while discussing the issue of terrorism in the context of India-Pakistan relations in his mail interview with Jahanzeb Aslam  published in Newsweek Pakistan. His comment “India is fully capable of dealing with Pakistan and has no concerns. What we are worried about is the increasing strategic threat from the developing Sino-Pakistani axis….This developing axis is the real axis of evil.” is noteworthy. Excerpts of the interview titled “The Real Axis of Evil”  is reproduced here for your reading. 

Excerpts:

What has India’s role been in the U.S.-led war on terror?

India’s primary role is exchange of intelligence, knowledge, experience and capabilities, and mutual assistance in legal matters with interested countries, including the U.S.

Can India do an operation like the US did in Abbottabad?

 

By Col R Hariharan

Can Indian security forces carry out a special operation like the US SEALS did in Abbottabad?

The US SEALS struck within the backyard of Pak military establishment but in 40 minutes killed the most wanted terrorist of the decade Osama bin Laden. As the TV and other media had a field day covering the operation and its aftermath, the inevitable question why can't India carryout an operation like that to catch any of the 20-odd India's most wanted terrorists hiding in Pakistan was raised.

In answering it we must be realistic; we should not even contemplate such overseas special operations unless we fulfil three basic parameters for their success: strong national leadership with decision making ability as demonstrated by President Obama, realtime intelligence about the target before, during and after the operations, and technical support system including air lift and communication for special forces. I fear at present we do not fulfil any of these three basic parameters.

An ode to the Indian soldier

March 09, 2011   7:57:38 PM
Manvendra Singh

While India has chosen to forget the sacrifices of its soldiers in foreign land, Sri Lanka has erected a memorial in honour of the IPKF’s fallen heroes.

I was on the lookout for Harpal’s name. Like all those who knew him I too had been devastated by the loss of the Ropar Khalsa. He had that infectious persona. I had last seen him at his unit mess, during the 1987 cricket world cup. Even as the country partook in its cricket craze, there were those who didn’t have that luxury, as they were at war for India.

Guarding India's Seafront

Is it time to pat ourselves on the back? Can India be sure of preventing another terror attack?

By Col R Hariharan
 
Indian security agencies’ successful handling of a series of events involving lucrative terrorist targets in the last quarter of 2010 showed they are succeeding in setting right their woeful performance during the infamous 26/11 Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) attack in Mumbai two years back. The tasks faced by the security agencies would have daunted security agencies of even big powers.

The blue ribbon event was the high profile visit of U.S. President Barak Obama, World’s Number one terrorist target. This was followed by the XIX Commonwealth Games, in which 83 countries took part. The quarter also included two other potentially explosive anniversaries - the 26/11 attack and the demolition of Babri masjid by Hindu zealots. There were also two other adds-on to the security nightmare – the long awaited judgement in the Babri Masjid ownership case and the visit of French President Sarkozy of the French burqa ban fame. But all the events passed off peacefully. Glitches if any were minor.  

Of course, the security agencies were kept on tenterhooks by reports of Pakistan-based Jihadi groups preparing to strike at some of the prominent targets in India. However, terrorists were kept at bay apparently due to the alertness of security elements in place. A number of arrests of suspected terrorists were also made.

No doubt success in this crucial period is a direct outcome of the efforts of the Union Home Minister P Chidamabaram to tone up the internal security set up. His multi-pronged approach and broad-based strategies to improve the command and control of security response systems on a networked basis is slowly coming into place. So the coherence in action has become visible. However, the task of providing muscle and teeth to state and central police and paramilitary forces is not complete. So the much needed progress has not yet reached the ground floor.

 

There is no dearth of money for the action plan. The Centre’s allocation for internal security is now poised to go up to Rs 40,852 crore this year, if we go by the first budget supplementary. This represents nearly a fifty per cent increase over last year’s allocation of Rs.25, 923 Crore in 2008-09.

The expenditure is mainly due to the two schemes for modernisation of state police and central paramilitary forces (CPMF). Both the schemes have been extended to 2010-11. The force levels of the three CPMF (BSF, CRPF and SSB) are being increased by 109 additional battalions. The hardware and software to connect the security control centres in state capitals with State Special Branches are in place. And connectivity is expected to be completed by end December 2010. 

 

One Central Academy for Police Training (CAPT) at Bhopal, two Central Detective Training Schools (CDTS) at Lucknow and Ahmedabad and 20 Counter Insurgency and Anti-Terrorist (CIAT) Schools are also being set up. After a review, the sanctioned strength of the IPS to the state cadre has been increased by 717 to 4730.

Is it time to pat ourselves on the back? Can India be sure to prevent another terrorist attack on the scale of 26/11?

It is difficult to confidently answer these questions with surety if we consider our inability to execute time-bound projects. In this respect, the Union Home Ministry’s record is slightly better; at the state-level leadership has not shown the urgency required to revamp their set up to handle terrorist threat.

This is not mere lethargy. States had always resisted carrying out police reforms. Despite judicial direction, politicians do not want to lose their control over law enforcement machinery. Even after the 26/11 disaster, this mind set does not appear to have changed.

Nothing illustrates this better than the attitude of states to change existing systems. Local media in Maharashtra says the state home ministry has not shown a keen interest in providing training to the lowest rank post of police constables. The Special Forces raised with a lot fanfare still carry old weapons and do not have enough body armour. There are huge deficiencies in police strength in many states. Efforts to fill up these vacancies are tardy.

However, the biggest chink in national security is in coastal security. No doubt it is a complex issue mired in round-robin power games played by diverse ministries. Apart from state governments, at the Centre also it involves coordinating the functioning of many agencies and ministries including defence, ports and shipping, fisheries, agriculture, off shore drilling, maritime trade, environmental protection and international relations. So it is not surprising the Union Home Ministry took two years to embark upon forming a multi-dimensional command structure. Four Joint Operation Centres have been set up under the respective naval commanders in chief. A Sagar Prahari Bal under the Navy has been set up to patrol shallow waters of the coast. A thousand sailors equipped with 80 fast interceptor boats are being trained in phases. Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for coastal security have been finalized in respect of all coastal states and union territories.

The Centre is optimistic that the first phase of the Coastal Security Scheme will be implemented nationwide by March 2011. Its expectations of states and union territories are that states would establish  73 coastal police stations, provided with  adequate manpower apart from 204 boats and 153 vehicles, and 312 two wheelers. 

In the second phase, the Coastal Security Scheme is even more ambitious with an outlay of Rs.1579.91 crore. It hopes to provide states/UTs more 131 more coastal police stations and boats and infrastructure required to make them operational. The Scheme is also to provide support for equipment, computer systems, vehicles, two-wheelers etc. A uniform system for registration of all boats is being introduced. Action is also being taken for issuing ID cards to all fishermen. There is increased emphasis on technology usage; installation of transponders on vessels to ensure identification and tracking is also being initiated. Radar chains are also being strengthened. 

So where is the problem? It lies in our national inability in executing plans on paper in time. Barring Gujarat, Pondicherry, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, other coastal states have made little progress in implementing coastal security projects. Setting up coastal police stations envisaged even in the first phase of the plan is lagging behind. Their infrastructure is not in place. So it is doubtful whether the Coastal Security Scheme would be fully implemented fully even by end 2012.

According to defence analyst Major General Ashok Mehta, “while the Indian navy, the nodal agency for coastal security, has issued elaborate papers on plugging gaps at sea through maritime domain awareness, little has been done in augmenting capabilities of the Coast Guard.”  Only two aircraft or helicopter has been added to the fleet of 48 since 2008 for watching India’s 7,600km coastline.

At the heart of the problem is incompetent political leadership; after all what happened to the Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilas Rao Deshmukh after he messed up the handling of 26/11 terror attack? He was pushed out to a plum post in the Central cabinet as minister for heavy industries. With this law of diminishing return in operation any improvement to national security will come, if and only, when political leadership becomes accountable and demands accountability from the bureaucracy. Otherwise the nation is likely to limp along from year to year explaining why we failed rather than talk of our successes.

Courtesy: GFiles,Vol 4 Issue 11 -  February 2011

URL  http://gfilesindia.com/

Real dimensions of Hindu terror

By now it is clear there had been at least three acts of terrorism by extreme fringe elements of Hindus. It is evident that the ruling Congress Party led by Mrs Sonia Gandhi has decided to focus on this issue to demonise the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Singh (RSS) - the ideological source of the opposition  Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). At the recently concluded 83rd plenary session of the Congress party the RSS was compared to the Nazis. The timing of this 'discovery' to coincide with the opposition campaign to bring the Manmohan Singh government to book for the 2G scam is interesting. The Manmohan Singh government has been in a log jam over the 2G issue which came as the 'Mother of all Scams' after a series of scams have been unearthed. 

Is the Congress Party using the Hindu terror issue in a diversionary tactic to shift the public focus from the scam tainted rule of the Congress Paty led coalition? What are the true dimensions of Hindu terrorism? Of course, if we put these acts of fringe Hindu elements in the same terror basket of Jihadi terrorism, which is a world wide phenomenon, it would be a grave mistake. So the 'silent majority' - mostly made up of Hindus and other religions including Muslims should ponder over this question. Whatever be the provocation, Terrorism should not be used as a tool of political expendiency. So if the Congress Party is indulging in it, as it seems, it would weaken the fight against the scourge of terrorism not only in India but in other countries also; after all India has a population mix of Hindu majority and the second largest number of Muslims living anywhere in the world.

In this respect, Mr B Raman's article on the subject is reproduced here for a better understanding.

CONGRESS (I): DEMONISATION OF THE RSS

B.RAMAN

The exercise initiated by Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the President of the Congress (I), and her cohorts at the just concluded 83rd plenary of the Congress (I) to have the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh (RSS) projected and demonised as a Hindu terrorist organisation comparable to the Nazi groups of World War II vintage and the more recent Islamic terrorist organisations speaks of the mental confusion that prevails at the senior levels of her party. It also highlights the total bankruptcy of thinking and the total indifference to sensitive issues that have become the defining characteristics of the party under her leadership in recent months.

2. It is a fact that some members of the Hindu community had during the last three or four years taken to acts of reprisal terrorism against the Muslim community at Malegaon, Hyderabad and Ajmer. It also seems to be a fact that the Hindus suspected to have been involved in these acts of reprisal terrorism were ideologically close to some of the Hindutva groups, including the RSS. The suspected role of some regional office-bearers of the RSS in motivating those Hindus, who had taken to anti-Muslim terrorism, is presently under investigation.

3. But there has been no evidence so far that the RSS as an organisation had any role in encouraging acts of reprisal against the Muslims or in motivating those who had taken to terrorism. The RSS and its leaders seem to have been as much surprised and embarrassed by the activities of these Hindu elements as other sections of the Hindu society.In the past, there had been instances of some Hindus indulging in acts of sporadic violence against Muslims in moments of public anger, but there were no instances of any Hindu or group of Hindus taking to deliberately planned acts of anti-Muslim terrorism.

4.Such deliberate and pre-planned acts of terrorism by elements in the Hindu community, including one or two officers of the armed forces, have been a recent phenomenon triggered off by a growing anger in sections of the Hindu community over what they perceived as inaction or inadequate action of the Congress (I) controlled Governments in dealing with acts of terrorism by some members of the Indian Muslim community and by Pakistani jihadi organisations sponsored by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

5. These acts of reprisal terrorism by some members of the Hindu community called for two pronged action by the Government. Firstly, the arrest and prosecution of those involved. Secondly, action to address the causes of anger in the Hindu community . Instead of doing so, the Congress (I), by launching an unwise and virulent campaign against the RSS, is going to add to the anger in the Hindu community, large sections of which look upon the RSS as an organisation which has been serving the cause of Hinduism in the land of its origin through its religious, social, cultural and humanitarian work.

6. The Hindus are in an overwhelming majority in this country and they have a right to have organisations such as the RSS to preserve the heritage of their religion and to protect and nourish their religious roots. By demonising the RSS as a terrorist and Nazi-like organisation, the Congress (I) under the leadership of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi seeks to insult millions of Hindus in this country who serve the cause of the RSS and discredit their heritage in the eyes of the rest of the world.

7. The anti-RSS campaign of the Congress (I) will not only add to the already existing anger in sections of the Hindu community,but will also play into the hands of the jihadi terrorists by facilitating their objective of aggravating the divide between the Hindu and Muslim communities. Before this campaign starts further damaging the relations between the two communities, the Congress (I) should stop its demonisation of the RSS, which would prove counter-productive. ( 22-12-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Covert Actions

By B. Raman

The strongly-presumed hand of Mossad, the Israeli external intelligence agency, in the successful neutralisation of a Damascus-based leader of the Hamas (Mahmoud al- Mabhouh) while he was on a visit to Dubai in January last has come in the wake of other suspected covert actions of the Mossad in recent months, which were directed against Iranian nuclear scientists, who were reportedly playing a role in the development of the uranium enrichment technology.

2. While all these operations succeeded in eliminating the intended targets who posed a threat to Israel's national security, those directed against the Iranian scientists were copybook examples of covert actions whereas the one against the Hamas leader was not. The Mossad was able to maintain the total deniability of its strikes against the Iranian scientists. Till today, Iranian intelligence officials and police investigators have not been able to find out what happened. Apart from allegations, they have no evidence of the involvement of the Mossad, which has taken care not to leave any trace of its involvement.

3. In the case of the Dubai operation, the deniability has been weak and many tell-tale traces left behind by those who participated in the alleged elimination of the Hamas leader have enabled the Dubai Police to reconstruct in a fairly convincing manner what happened. The employment of an unusually large team of agents for carrying out the action and their inability to make the closed circuit TV in the hotel non-functional have enabled the Dubai police to make a break-through in the investigation.

4. The fact that the Mossad agents decided to go ahead with the operation despite their inability to make the CCTV non-functional strongly speaks of local collusion in the covert action. Since the CCTV was presumably functioning, those in the security control room of the hotel who would have been monitoring the CCTV, would have definitely noticed the Mossad agents forcing their way into the room of the Hamas leader. The fact that they did not raise an alarm for hours, which enabled the Mossad agents to flee Dubai without being intercepted, is an indicator of collusion in the hotel.

5. Even when they travel incognito, Hamas leaders are usually accompanied by at least one person from their security set-up who takes up a room opposite the room occupied by the leader so that they could keep a look-out for any attempt to break into the room of the leader. The fact that no one intervened as the Mossad agents forced their way into the room indicates that either there was collusion by Hamas elements too or the Mossad agents had neutralised the security detail of the Hamas leader before attacking him.

6. The entire story of the covert action will never come out. Particulars of any collusion will remain unknown for some time to come.

7. The Dubai operation of the Mossad was not copy-book perfect, but it was a successful operation in the sense that the agency eliminated a worrying threat to Israel's national security and to the lives of Israeli citizens and other Jewish persons. It was an attack carried out in exercise of the right of self-defence of the Israeli nation and people.

8. Laws of all countries---including India---- provide this right of self-defence and this rigt can be exercised by individuals as well as States.

9. Those opposed to covert actions might argue that despite the repeated resort to covert actions against identified enemies of the State of Israel and its people, Israel has not succeeded in eliminating terrorism and in countering effectively States like Iran which are determined to destroy Israel. Another way of looking at it is that but for such covert actions Israel and the Jewish people might have been forced to their knees by now by their enemies. It is such successful covert actions which have enabled the State of Israel to survive and even flourish.

10. The importance of selective covert actions to ensure the security of a State and its people has been recognised by many States----democratic and authoritarian. Some States----such as the US and Israel---admit that they have a covert action capability. Others don't, but they maintain the capability clandestinely. Pakistan is an example of a State in Asia which has over the years maintained an effective covert action capability for use against India. It has followed the model of other rogue States such as North Korea, Libya, Syria, Iraq of Saddam Hussain and Sudan in using terrorism as a way of waging a covert warfare.

11. Since 1997, India has been a pathetic victim of Pakistan's covert actions waged through different terrorist organisations. Pakistan has been using terrorism as a means of covert action against India since 1981.Between 1981 and 1997, India was retaliating in its own limited manner. The policy of covert retaliation was stopped in 1997 and has been totally discarded since then.

12. None of the Indian Prime Ministers in office since 1997 has had the political will to revert to a policy of at least limited retaliation against the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its terrorist surrogates. The result has been that our national security has been continuously endangered and our people have been dying in their hundreds. When Pakistan, through its intelligence agencies and terrorist surrogates, has been waging a relentless covert warfare against India, we cannot protect the State and the people merely by revamping our counter-terrorism architecture.

13. Unless we create a capability for retaliatory covert actions in a deniable manner and use that capability we will continue to bleed.

14. Between 1981 and 1997, the Prime Ministers in office followed a dual policy of "talk, talk, hit, hit" against Pakistan. They never fought shy of talking to Pakistani leaders and officials. At the same time, they never missed an opportunity to undermine the State of Pakistan covertly in retaliation against its covert actions against India.

15. Since 1997, our policy has been reduced to one of talk, talk and more talk with no retaliation even covertly. Our political leadership and large sections of our bureaucracy have no concept of the importance of covert action in an asymmetric proxy war. That is the tragedy of our country.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)

Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group, Paper No 3675 date: Feb 19, 2010
URL: http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3675.html

Sri Lanka Perspectives – October 2009

Trade and economic prospects

The European Council is likely to take a final decision on the extension of the GSP+ tariff concessions to Sri Lanka in the first week of January 2010, to become effective from middle of June, 2010. The investigation report compiled by the EU Committee on the effective implementation of Human Rights in Sri Lanka submitted to the EU Headquarters on Oct 19, 2009 is likely to influence the decision. The report is said to be negative and highlights a number of human rights concerns in Sri Lanka.

However, Sri Lanka Central Bank has said that Sri Lankan exports would not be adversely affected even if the EU withdrew the concession. Quoting the latest external trade data the Bank expected that exports to continue to increase during 2009 and 2010 regardless of the continuation of GSP+ concessions. Quoting the European Commission’s estimate, it assessed the benefits of lower import duties under the GSP+ scheme for the year 2008 at only 1.4% of Sri Lanka’s total exports. “So the loss of preferential duty margin by around 6-7% arising from a potential withdrawal of the GSP plus facility is not expected to have an adverse impact on Sri Lanka’s exports,” the Central Bank added.

It is assessed that loss of the zero tariff concessions could increase the price of Sri Lankan goods up to 10 per cent in the EU markets and make them less competitive. Apparel industry which forms about 45 percent of exports would be hard hit by the withdrawal of concessions. Opposition parties have warned it would mean loss of jobs and reputation of Sri Lanka.

Internally displaced people

The first ever delegation of Tamil Nadu parliamentarians made a five-day visit to Sri Lanka during the month. The 10-memebr “non official” delegation composed of members from the three political parties of the ruling coalition in New Delhi –– the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK)), the Congress party and the pro-LTTE Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi (VCK) was ostensibly to understand the problems of Tamils, particularly war displaced people living in camps. Evidently, this was a political exercise to remove the stigma that these parties had not helped the Tamils during the war and later in freeing of the IDPs from government controlled camps. In spite of this political intention it was a welcome move as Tamil Nadu politicians were positively thinking about bringing amity between the two ethnic communities in Sri Lanka rather than taking up the Eelam litany to serve their own political ends.

The delegation visited IDP camps and submitted a report to the Tamil Nadu government. It spoke of a promise by President Rajapaksa that 58,000 IDPs would be released within a fortnight. The Sri Lanka government had planned the release even before the delegation’s visit; but it went along to substantiate the delegation’s claim and by the end of the month over 58,000 IDPs were allowed to return home. However, in Tamil Nadu there was only lukewarm interest with the political parties reverting to their original political positions. In particular, the VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan after a brief pause took up Eelam propaganda, trying to immortalize V Prabhakaran as a national hero of Tamils.

The Sri Lankan Minister for Youth Empowerment and Socio, Economic Development, Arumuga Thondaman visited Chennai to brief the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister apparently on Tamil IDP issue. According to him 1.86 lakh IDPs would continue to stay in camps during the monsoon period as their release was condtional to receiving certification from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees on demining and humanitarian aspects. As of now, Sri Lanka government appears to have succeeded in satisfying ruling Tamil lobbies in Delhi and Chennai.

Human rights issues

Even as dust had not settled on the EU investigation report, Stephen Rapp, U.S. ambassador-at-large for war crimes issues, filed a report to U.S. Congress on incidents relating to violations of international humanitarian law and crimes against humanity in the Sri Lanka war between January to May 2009. The report chronicled allegations of war crimes by both Sri Lanka and the LTTE. The Senate subcommittee on the State Department and foreign operations has called for "a full and independent investigation" so those responsible can be "held accountable."
The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has also joined in the call for a similar investigation of Sri Lanka's war. These moves are likely to further strengthen the Sri Lanka Tamil Diaspora’s campaign demanding the trial of Sri Lanka army commander and government officials for carrying out genocide of Tamils during the war.

Given this climate of adverse publicity, it is not clear why the government is dragging its feet on taking strong measures to improve its human rights record. The government had generally been describing such criticisms as part of a deliberate international smear campaign. Even ministers in responsible positions had been making loose comments. Typical was the comment of Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickramanayaka when the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton included Sri Lanka among countries where women were raped during war. Although it could have ignored as a passing reference, the Prime Minister took her to task and linked it to Bill Clinton’s short-lived “affair” with Monica Lewinsky.

What Sri Lanka hopes to gain by such campaign is not clear. The anti-west posturing is probably connected with political rabble rousing for use in forthcoming elections. But already it is making things a little more difficult for Sri Lanka in handling international issues, particularly in the EU, UK and the U.S. And it could get worse when the genocide snowball gathers more momentum.

Political developments

President Mahinda Rajapaksa does not appear to have made up his mind on holding of presidential poll before the parliamentary poll due to be held in early 2010. He would be sacrificing two years of his present term by going for re-election. On the other hand he would like to use his current popularity to gain both a second term and a two thirds majority for his coalition in parliament.

The opposition United National Party (UNP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), despite their ideological differences, appear to be in agreement in fielding General Sarath Fonseka, who has become a national hero after routing the LTTE, as a common presidential candidate against President Rajapaksa. He would be eligible as he is due for retirement when his tenure as CDS ends in December 2009.

Such a move could strengthen the opposition in the President. However, reduce the margin of victory for Rajapaksa who has the political edge. There had been a great deal of speculation in the media about this which has caused concern to the ruling coalition. A subtle campaign is going on to bring down the role of Fonseka by upgrading Rajapaksa’s contribution in winning the war.

Adding insult to the injury the government offered him the appointment of secretary to the Ministry of Sports which the General turned down. We can expect President Rajapaksa to make political moves to dissuade the General from contesting even as the opposition brings pressure on him to contest the presidential poll.

Security

The security forces’ search operations in north and east have unearthed more arms caches during the month. About 60 LTTE members spotted among the IDPs are being sent to rehabilitation camps. Verification of LTTE documents is said to have revealed that the LTTE had supplied arms and ammunition worth Rs 400 crores to Indian insurgent groups particularly in Assam.

Based on information gained from interrogation of prisoners, police have arrested a number of people including police officers and government officials who had been on the pay roll of the LTTE. The CID has arrested Colonel Ranjith Perera and his wife and three others on suspicion of conspiring to assassinate the President. Their interrogation is going on.

However, so far there had been no indication of any fresh LTTE activity.
Courtesy: Security Trends Vol 3 No 9, www.security-risk.com

Dynamics of Arming Conflict & Unregulated Arms Trade

By Col R Hariharan

[This article is based on a presentation made by the author at a round table conference organised by the Control Arms Foundation of India in collaboration with United Nations Information Office, New Delhi on "Armaments, Disarmament & Non-Proliferation" on 23 & 24 September 2009 at New Delhi.]

Introduction

Thanks to the three revolutions – knowledge, technology, and communication – during the last three decades new global paradigms are emerging with far reaching effects on the lives of nations and peoples. Positive effects include economic liberalisation, improved global networking of peoples, emergence of information technology as change agent, and increasing global awareness among people. Negative fall outs include changes in the nature, scope and intensity of conflicts, increasing consumerism, erosion of family values and increasing criminalisation of societies.

These changes have also enlarged the classical perception of national security as relating to territorial security and domination. It now includes security issues relating to trade and commerce, energy resources, human development and well being, and the new genre of cyber security. Effects of these changes are as follows:

• Scope of conflicts: The traditional progression of conflicts from local to national to regional to international spheres has been short circuited. As a result even local conflicts can draw international attention and influence. The Eelam war in Sri Lanka is a case in point.
• Enlarging conflict domains: More countries than ever before have demonstrated nuclear capability. Similarly increased membership of space club imparting spread of rocket and space technology. Space has become the fourth dimension of conflict apart from land, sea and air. This has resulted in expanding areas of interest and influence of nations.
• Increasing intensity of warfare at subunit level: Weapon and armament developments are focused on conquering new areas of communication, firepower, design, portability and mobility to acquire, reach and destroy targets faster. As a result weapons of high destructive capability like thermobaric weapons are available at the infantryman’s level. Remote battlefield reconnaissance capability has given the ability to destroy targets from command posts located well away from the battle zone.
• Diffusion of military power: Modern technology has enabled smaller nations to assert their power increasing the areas of potential conflict. North Korea’s nuclear weapons development is a typical example.
• Terrorism: Terrorism has become a cost effective assertion of power by weak non state actors to take on powerful states. This was demonstrated by the 9/11 Al Qaeda terrorists strike in the U.S., and the 26/11 Lashkar e-Tayyaba attacks in Mumbai. Terrorists have availed benefits of increase in fire power, mobility and target acquisition capabilities of modern armies to their benefit

Responding to dynamics of change – A Sri Lanka case study

Sri Lanka had been battling the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), a Tamil ethnic separatist insurgent group in a series of Eelam Wars for the last two decades. The LTTE had refined the use of suicide terrorism as a weapon to strengthen its strategic posture. In its three decades existence the Tamil Tigers had grown to a formidable force with a conventional army capable of waging war in land, air and sea. About 80,000 people are estimated to have lost their lives in these conflicts. Of these about 35000 people were LTTE cadres and followers.

Recently Sri Lanka armed forces succeeded in crushing the military might of the LTTE in the fourth episode of the war that lasted for nearly three years.
The Tamil Tigers, who had become the world’s most powerful non state actor, provide an interesting case study on the existing weaknesses in national and international policies in control, trade and trafficking of arms. It also highlights the global linkages between international arms trafficking and other criminal activity money laundering, piracy, human trafficking etc. Its assets overseas are estimated to yield millions of dollars as regular income.

Even a partial list of arms captured from the LTTE after the war gives an idea of the real dimensions of its arms procurement and trafficking operations. It included assorted artillery pieces -76, infantry mortars – 768, multi-barrel rocket launchers -45, SAMs -11, anti-aircraft guns -91, assorted machine guns -291, small arms (automatic) -14,413. It also procured eight light aircraft, modern night vision devices and GPS equipment for its military use.

LTTE strategies for growth and war

Creation of expatriate support network: In the absence of a political settlement of Tamil grievances, after 1983 there was large scale exodus of Tamil refugees from Sri Lanka. The LTTE either took over or created new support networks among nearly 800,000 Tamil expatriates the world over. It used them for providing financial, material and motivational support to help LTTE’s growth and sustain it in war and peace.

Creation of front organisations: It successfully managed to infiltrate and takeover existing expatriate cultural and social organisations and places of worship. It created NGO fronts which performed relief work and collected funds for such work. These funds were regularly siphoned off to progress war. Some of them gained legitimacy by networking with other recognised global bodies.

Lobbying and political support: The LTTE managed to exploit to its advantage the sympathy among expatriate concentrations for the cause of Tamil minority in Sri Lanka. It influenced strong pro-Tamil lobbies within overseas political parties (i.e., UK, Canada, India) to garner international political support and to carryout psywar and propaganda. Although the LTTE in Sri Lanka is in total disarray, these assets continue to exist even now.

Arms procurement and logistic network: LTTE sympathisers in tandem with LTTE cells procured illegal weapons and modern arms technology globally. LTTE procured most of its arms from Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. The list of countries include China, North Korea, Hong Kong, Cambdia, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in Asia: Ukraine; Bulgaria in Eastern Europe; Lebanon: Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey in the Mediterranean and Eritrea, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe in Africa. It also organised a captive shipping network of 12 merchant ships to transport them.

Subversion of peace process: LTTE illegally brought in most of its weapons during the ceasefire period when an international peace process was in force. It exploited the desire of nations to assist Sri Lanka to end the conflict to its advantage. It is clear that weaknesses of international monitoring were fully exploited by the LTTE.

Action areas

To sum up, the LTTE had demonstrated how the existing international protocols can be subverted to its advantage using existing assets in the form of NGOs, criminal elements, and loopholes in systems of transnational administration for controlling sale and transporting of arms by non state agents. It is clear that it is not enough if nations ratify international arms trade treaty. Nations will have to coordinate their concepts, policy making and implementation of all issues relating to arms trade and traffic on a holistic basis.

Insurgent groups are more modern and powerful now than ever before because they use the advantages offered by globalisation that enables speedier communication and provide real time information on modern military thought and technology. To combat them collective action of nations is required in the following areas to make international arms trade treaty effective –

• International cooperation required both inside and outside the UN orbit. Help and support of India, China, Pakistan, the US and the EU enabled Sri Lanka to militarily defeat the LTTE.
• The nexus of criminals-elements of state– arms traders both nationally and internationally has to be broken.
• Synergy required in fighting money laundering and to curb illegal transfers and trafficking in arms, people and drugs.
• Need for sustained campaign for control of proliferation and trade of arms.
• Greater international attention to defuse and disarm potential areas of conflicts.

Sri Lanka: Importance of being Fonseka

General Sarath Fonseka, Sri Lanka’s Chief of Defence, has been recently hitting the headlines for reasons other than military. Sections of Colombo media have been speculating on the possibility of the General contesting the 2010 presidential poll as opposition candidate against President Rajapaksa. The speculation has refused to die down despite denials by the General. It will probably gather further momentum as the election storm brews further in the political horizon.

Even during his service as army commander, the much-decorated General had always been a figure of media controversy. A man who relished hands-on action than sophistry, General Fonseka’s was known for his off-the cuff, and at times inept, “politically incorrect,” remarks. Often, they raised a lot of dust in their wake. Calling the Tamil Nadu politicians “a bunch of jokers” typified his style. As army commander, his “rough and ready” methods focusing only on results and ignoring hierarchy, adopted during the war did not endear him to some of the officers.

During the war he also tread on a lot of toes not only in the armed forces but also in the corridors of power. He had little patience with critics. He did not take kindly to media that questioned his style or methods and even branded them as unpatriotic.

General Fonseka also showed a Sinhala nationalist streak that endeared him to the Sinhala right wing elements. This came out in clear terms in an interview to Canada’s National Post in September 2008. The General said “I strongly believe that this country belongs to the Sinhalese but there are minority communities and we treat them like our people…We being the majority of the country 75%, we will never give in and we have the right to protect this country…We are also a strong nation.” His said other communities “can live in this country with us. But they must not try to, under the pretext of being a minority, demand undue things.” This remark cut at the very basis of President Rajapaksa’s thesis portraying his government as an equitable option for everyone including the Sinhalas and minorities.

There had been a great deal of public adulation of General Fonseka for his significant contribution in leading the armed forces to victory against the LTTE. A first rate professional soldier, he did not change his style even in picking his successor. He recommended Lt Genearl Jagat Jayasuriya as army commander, superseding seven other generals. President Rajapaksa elevated him as chief of defence staff in recognition of his valuable contribution in winning the Eeelam War IV. However, as CDS he had a grandiose vision. Though the LTTE had been routed and the government had regained full control of all the territories held by the Tamil insurgents, the General spoke of adding 100,000 more soldiers to build an army of 300,000 to wage peace.

The rapidly growing public personality of the General probably overawed political leaders, who were increasingly feeling marginalised. This must have set the alarm bells ringing among them as they were hoping to garner full credit for the victory in the Eelam War. They were getting wary of too much credit going to the apolitical General.

In any case, the war was over and the political rat race was on. So the politicians have started questioning the relevance of General Fonseka’s presence as a popular public personality outside the political spectrum. Second rung leaders of the ruling coalition have started making oblique statements sidelining the contribution of the General in the Eelam War.

From his recent statements, one could make out that the developing environment within the government is not to the General's liking. The army expansions the General spoke of have not come through and his tenure is ending by December 2009. The crowning irony was the offer to appoint him the secretary in the ministry of sports! No wonder the General did not accept the offer.

After the ruling UPFA coalition mauled the opposition in the series of post war provincial elections, President Rajapaksa plans to hold the parliamentary and presidential elections in early 2010. He appears to be hopeful of securing the vital two-thirds majority in parliament that would give a lot of freedom of action for him. In the progressively marginalised General Fonseka the two major opposition parties - the United National Party (UNP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) - see a potential opposition candidate who can give a run for the money in the presidential poll.

In the opposition’s political calculus probably only General Fonseka has a chance of redeeming their reputation as he has a nation wide appeal. The JVP has spoken of its readiness to back General Fonseka to contest the presidential poll. Media reports indicate the UNP backroom politicians are working overtime to convince the reluctant general to join the presidential race.

However, the General has to agree to be pitted against Rajapaksa as opposition candidate. It is not going to be an easy decision to make. It is going to challenge his strategic acumen, so effective in battlefields, in the political arena that is an entirely different ball game. And President Rajapaksa being an astute politician, who has managed to divide every political party, is likely to take every action to thwart opposition plans and persuade the General with other options.

Despite the General’s immense popularity, there are some difficulties in projecting him as an alternative to Rajapaksa. General Fonseka is one of the three architects (the two Rajapaksa brothers being the other) who under the leadership of President Mahinda Rajapaksa brought an end to the legend of Prabhakaran and the LTTE. In the saluting parade held on May 28, 2009 the General had acknowledged the President’s leadership contribution in winning the war. He said: “This battle victory was largely dependent on leadership of the officers and soldiers who fought on the battleground. President Mahinda Rajapaksa, the Defence Secretary and all those here and abroad who offered leadership and guidance to this fight deserve our tribute and commendation.” So he will have the difficult task of sidelining the President’s contribution and pass of as a better candidate.

Unlike the President, the General is not politically savvy. He has little experience in the rough and tumble of peace time politics. Political horsetrading and doublespeak may not figure in his skill sets. During the war he had made some harsh comments about the UNP and its leadership under Ranil Wickremesinghe. Will he able to motivate them now to support him wholeheartedly is a moot point.

In this election, the UNP should be able to gain the traditional Tamil votes that were denied to it in the last Presidential election. The ruling coalition has probably alienated a large number of Tamil voters by its rigid attitude in handling the 2.5 lakh Tamils displaced due to the war. Thus conditions are more congenial for UNP to woo Tamil votes.

However, Fonseka is very much associated with the whole post war architecture for handling the Vanni IDPs. So its negative fall outs are sure to affect his electoral fortunes as well. Moreover, the General had shown a cavalier attitude to the human rights issues, high on the Tamil agenda. So most of the Tamils may not support the UNP if Fonseka is projected as its candidate. This could make a difference as demonstrated in the last election when Rajapaksa won by a wafer thin majority through Southern Sinhala votes after Tamils did not turn up to vote.

It seems General Fonseka will continue to haunt the columns of media as well as the minds of many politicians. Can the General’s strategic ability that helped him do so well in war help him decide his political dilemma? That is a question only he can answer. And that is the importance of being General Fonseka.
Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group URL: http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cnotes6%5Cnote548.html

Sri Lanka: To Colombo from Chennai and After

The 10-member delegation of Tamil Nadu parliamentarians returned to Chennai after a five-day visit to Sri Lanka to gain a first hand understanding of the post war problem of Tamils (if not the plight), particularly of over 250,000 people displaced from their homes during the war and now living in holding camps.

The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi had made clear the delegation was not an official one. Three political parties –– the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK), the Congress party and the Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi (VCK) – who are part of the ruling Congress-led coalition in Delhi, had sent their representatives.


The DMK and VCK apparently attached greater importance to the delegation than the Congress. DMK representatives included senior leader TR Baalu and Ms Kanimozhi, daughter of Chief Minister and DMK leader M Karunanidhi, and a rising star in the party. The VCK leader and sole member of parliament Thol Thirumavalan represented the party. The importance given to the delegation was evident from the presence of Chief Minister Karunanidhi at the airport to receive it on arrival.

Ostensibly, the purpose of the delegation was to show solidarity with Sri Lankan Tamils in the post war period and speed up the return of IDPs to their villages after nearly six months after the end of the war. But the real purpose was probably more political – to reclaim their image tarnished by their failure to meet the expectations of Sri Lanka Tamils in persuading Delhi to bring about a ceasefire in Sri Lanka, particularly in the later stages of Eelam War IV when the LTTE was under siege.

Of course, the VCK tried to have it both ways – as a vituperatively vocal sympathiser of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) as well as a partner in the DMK led united front in the state. Its opportunism did pay off in the parliamentary poll as VCK won a seat in parliament, unlike other pro-LTTE parties like Vaiko’s MDMK which lost the few seats they had held earlier.

Regardless of the political purpose, the visit of the delegation from Tamil Nadu is to be welcomed as it has opened a window of opportunity for Tamil Nadu parties to make a positive contribution in bringing ethnic amity, while ensuring the Tamils get their just dues. After the Sri Lanka Tamil issue dramatically lost public support in the wake of LTTE’s assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, Tamil Nadu politicians made little effort to either help resolve the Tamil autonomy issue or bring about peace in the war torn island nation.

Similarly, their contribution was equally dismal when the peace process 2002 failed due to the LTTE’s egocentric approach and Sri Lanka’s inability to work out a Sinhala political consensus on the issue. Their apathy during the days of the peace process 2002 no doubt contributed to India’s muted role in Sri Lanka in recent years. When the war progressed, most of them failed to see the realities on the ground, probably expecting the LTTE to hold on, if not defeat Sri Lanka security forces.

However, Chief Minister Karunanidhi was more pragmatic despite his latent sympathy for the Eelam cause. He publicly distanced himself from pro-LTTE elements and Prabhakaran from 2007 onwards and steered the DMK through a middle course on this issue to reassert his strength in the parliamentary poll. This had probably emboldened him now to take the politically risky proposition of sending a Tamil Nadu delegation to Colombo.

Though nobody can expect the delegation’s visit to produce dramatic results, it has turned the much needed national focus on this issue in India. It can also claim to have produced a positive result – a promise from President Rajapaksa to ensure 58,000 IDPs would be allowed to return to their homes within the next fortnight. The Sri Lanka government appears to go along with this as it announced the despatch of 2000 IDPs from the camps to their homes in Jaffna a day after the delegation returned to Chennai. It does not really matter that last month the Sri Lanka government had claimed that by October it would able to reduce the number of IDPs in camps to 100,000 from 250,000.

The Asian Tribune quoted Ms Kanimozhi, MP as saying that President Rajapakse had assured them that his government was working on a solution to the ethnic conflict that would meet "not only the legitimate aspirations of members of all communities in Sri Lanka but also the concerns of our neighbour". In this respect, Chief Minister Karunanidhi’s statement at the airport "the Tamils' decades long struggle for equal rights, flagged by Eelam leader S J V Chelvanayakam, will become a reality" is significant.

Though the report of the delegation spoke of the poor living conditions in the IDP camps and shortages faced by the inmates, it has avoided recriminations, which is a positive development. The governments at Chennai and New Delhi should seriously take up the issues raised in the report and regularly follow their progress with Colombo.
Tamils everywhere would now expect more action than rhetoric from both the Sri Lanka President and the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister. We can only hope the Tamil Nadu move was not a flash in the pan; such efforts should continue lest the real issues behind the ethnic animosity in Sri Lanka are wished away by politicians.
Courtesy: http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cnotes6%5Cnote547.html

SRI LANKA: Brief Comments on Happenings

Col R Hariharan

Battling Channel 4:

It appears Sri Lanka is not in a mood to allow the ‘Channel 4 execution video’ controversy to die down. An official briefing was organised for diplomats to prove the video was a doctored one with malefide intentions. The diplomatic briefing was carried in the www.defence.lk official website of the defence ministry with the ominous caption “Rebut or Regret.” While the government was said to be thinking of suing Channel 4, the TV channel also appeared to be in no mood to relent. On September 7 it screen on yet another video allegedly taken by mobile phone camera showing the appalling conditions in which the displaced Tamils are living in the temporary camps in Vanni. The video said to have been taken by a group calling itself War Without Witness is likely to further heat up the confrontation.

Moreover, this confrontation could add fuel to the continuing polemical relations between Sri Lanka and UK. The deteriorating state of relations was evident when the media reported that Dr Palitha Kohona, Foreign Secretary, was not issued a visa by the British High Commission in Colombo for reasons not known. According to the report, the British wanted the Foreign Secretary to come in person to collect the visa!

International ripples on Tissanayagam conviction

As expected the conviction of Tissanayagam has continued to cause adverse international reaction particularly in India and the western world. The pressmen in Chennai had protested against the conviction and wanted him released. Guardian and the Boston Globe have written about it; the UN has also made noises about it. Arrest and subsequent release of three journalists of the pro-JVP ‘Lanka’ on bail has further focused on the perilous state of media men. They also face possible terrorism charges.

However, no change is visible in the mood of the government and the Tissanayagam story is likely to be kept alive. And Sri Lanka appears to be in no mood to change its hostile attitude towards free press. This has also highlighted the continued use of draconian provisions of Prevention of Terrorism Act against media men although the war is over.

Parliamentary elections (amendment) Bill:

The Supreme Court has ruled that some clauses in the Parliamentary elections (amendment) Bill would require to be passed by parliament with a two thirds majority. The opposition UNP, TNA, and the SLMC had challenged the Bill which, proposes to outlaw parties signifying religious or communal identity, in the Supreme Court. The court had held that sub section 7(5) (6) and the words that signify ‘any religion or community’ in sub section 7 (6) and 9 (3) of the Bill in their present form were inconsistent with the Constitution.

After the end of 20 years of shooting war, ethnic reconciliation process is yet to start. In this environment the proposed enactment is likely to face two problems. Increase in the feeling of insecurity of minorities, who want structural changes in the constitution not implemented so far; The provisions of new bill are likely to affect parties with large minority following than large national parties which also have an ethnic veneer under the skin. Secondly, the ruling UPFA coalition does not enjoy two thirds majority and opposition parties are unlikely to extend their support to see the bill through. So the UPFA coalition has the option of keeping it in suspended animation to pass the bill in its present form when it musters adequate support in a new house or amend the bill as directed by the Supreme Court.

Continuing stand off with UN

Sri Lanka revoked the visa of .James Elder, spokesman for UNICEF in Sri Lanka and expelled him for what the Foreign Secretary Palitha Kohona termed as spreading Tamil Tiger propaganda. UNICEF promptly denied the allegations. During the final stages of the war, Elder was accused of spreading news of exaggerated casualties among people trapped in the war zone due to Sri Lankan artillery shelling.

Ban Ki Moon, UN secretary-general strongly regretted the decision of Sri Lanka to expel Elder. According to U.N. spokesman Ban would raise the issue with Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa at the earliest opportunity. This is only the latest episode in the on going stand off between UN agencies in Sri Lanka and the government. It came about due to the UN agencies’ strong criticism of Sri Lanka’s handling of human rights and humanitarian issues during the last few years.

Death of Prabhakaran & Pottu Amman:

Sri Lanka has not yet issued the death certificates of Prabhakaran and Pottu Amman to India which had requested for them. The two were indicted in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case and the death certificates would enable the removal of their names from the list of absconding accused.

In this context it is significant that on September 9 the Colombo High Court has allowed the dropping of the names of Prabhakaran and Pottu Amman from the indictment in the Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar assassination case.

(Col. R Hariharan (retired) is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com )

Courtesy: www.southasiaanalysis.org

Sri Lanka Perspectives – August 2009

Local elections in the North

The month saw the first move towards normalcy in the war torn Northern Province with conduct of largely trouble free elections for the Jaffna Municipality and the Vavuniya Urban Council on August 8. Though these elections were only local, they were an indicator of post war Tamil perceptions. The success of the elections proved that remnants of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had neither the will nor the capacity to interfere with the process.

Though only 20% of the total of 100,000 voters was polled in Jaffna, according to observers it actually worked out to 40% of available voters as many did not receive their voting cards. The ruling United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) spearheaded by the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP), its anti-LTTE Tamil coalition partner, won 13 of the 23 seats of the municipal council paving for the election of its nominee as the mayor.

On the other hand, in Vavuniya the voter turnout was 52%. However, the ruling coalition had a rude jolt when the pro-LTTE coalition - the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) - came out as the largest party winning five of the 11 seats while the moderate Peoples Democratic Front (PDF) came second. The verdict indicates strong support to the two issues propagated by the TNA - preservation of Tamil identity and demand for autonomy. It was also a public disapproval of the government policy of detaining 300,000 war displaced Tamils of Vanni in temporary camps instead of allowing them to return to their homes. The President can be expected to make plans for realignment of his support base among Tamil political parties to ensure he gains Tamil votes in the next presidential as it could become crucial.

However, in the elections for the Uva Provincial Council in the south held at the same time, the UPFA came out on top polling 72% of the votes and securing 25 of the 34 seats. The main opposition United National Party (UNP) polled only 22% of the votes and won only seats. The Leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) was routed. It polled only 2% of the votes polled and secured only one seat. This indicates the strong support the President is enjoying in the south, following his victory against the LTTE.

Continuing woes of displaced people

The international criticism of Sri Lanka’s performance in handling humanitarian and human rights issues gathered further momentum as monsoon rains flooded some of the camps added to the misery of displaced people detained there. Both the U.S. and the UK came out with strong statements asking Sri Lanka to rehabilitate them speedily.
The government and the UN agencies were blaming each other for establishing the camps in low lying areas and providing poor infrastructure facilities. There appear to be differences within the government on the issue of repatriation the displaced people to their villages. The Defence Secretary had made it clear that unless the inmates were screened for identifying LTTE elements in their midst, they would not be allowed to go. On the other hand other ministries have been trying to soft pedal the issue citing the need to complete the mine clearance operations going on in many parts of Northern Province. It was clear that the government was dragging its feet over the issue perhaps due to internal differences.

However, perhaps in deference to Sri Lanka’s promises to India and the mounting international criticism probably one third of the inmates are likely to be released during September. Further delay in this respect is likely to embarrass the Indian government which could come under public pressure in Tamil Nadu.

Human rights issues

The President expressed his concern over growing high handed behaviour of police and ministers which reached a new high during the month. One minister was arrested for freeing an arrested person from a police station. A senior police officer and his wife are being prosecuted for kidnapping, torturing and killing three students. A crackdown against police corruption and misconduct is under way. According to the head of police as many as 189 policemen were under investigation during the month. However, there is a strong nexus between politicians and corrupt police elements and the cleansing operation is unlikely to yield satisfactory results in the near future.

Sri Lanka army plans

The Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Sarath Fonseka, in his first public appearance in nearly three months speaking on ‘Winning Military Strategies - Lessons for Managers,’ said the Sri Lanka Army’s strategy of acting like guerrilla organisation, restructuring of the Army, ending corruption, increasing its strength and firepower and organizing a direct chain of command that went from the top to grass root levels as the key elements that ended the LTTE terrorism. It is significant that he had touched upon corruption – an issue that had plagued armed forces for a long time. He also said that most of the targets engaged by the air force and navy were based upon the revamped military intelligence.

General Fonseka’s emergence as a strong leader has had its ripples on politics as well. He has disowned an e-mail containing a statement purported to have been issued by him which had been circulating. The statement containing extremely right wing views and Indian slant was highly critical of present political leadership as a whole. Though the e-mail lacked credibility it appears to have created ripples in political circles.

LTTE’s survival pains

The tentative efforts made to rebuild the leadership-less LTTE with the installation of Kumaran Pathmanathan (KP), its senior most surviving leader and international representative as General Secretary, collapsed after his dramatic arrest in Kuala Lumpur and rendition to Colombo on August 6. Sri Lankan intelligence in coordination with Malaysia and Thailand carried out the operation and took him into custody when he had gone to Kuala Lumpur for a meeting with two Sri Lanka Tamils related to the late Nadesan, political head of the LTTE. KP was flown to Colombo via Bangkok in a special Sri Lankan aircraft.

There had been lots of speculation about the circumstances of his apprehension. They range from involvement of foreign intelligence agencies in the operation, some LTTE blacklegs turning informers, and the hands of expatriate Tamils turning against KP. Whatever be the truth behind the arrest, it was a remarkable achievement of Sri Lanka intelligence. With KP’s arrest, the LTTE’s succession struggle is likely to start all over again and the process may not be smooth. Sivaparan alias Nediyavan, related to the late LTTE political wing leader Tamilchelvan, and who opposed the rise of KP earlier, was tipped as successor. The Norwegian police are reported to be keeping a watch on Nediyawan who is living in exile there.

The Sri Lankans have made a number of arrests and recovered sizeable quantities of arms from caches in Colombo and Vanni based upon information given by KP. India will undoubtedly welcome the arrest of KP who is suspected to have been involved in Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination plot and other cases of gun running in India.

[This analysis of activities in Sri Lanka during Aug 2008 was written on August 31, 2009 for South Asia Security Trends published by www.security-risks.com who hold the copy right.]

Emerging trends in Sri Lanka - An Indian perspective

By R Swaminathan

A quarter century of LTTE-led militancy and terrorism in Sri Lanka came to an end in May 2009. Some of the trends that have been and are emerging in “post-war” Sri Lanka need to be noted and considered by policy-makers in Sri Lanka, India and elsewhere.

Sri Lankan Government

The armed forces of Sri Lanka are entitled to their happiness and pride in having “eliminated” the capabilities of LTTE to mount conventional military operations. Some competent analysts have gone to the extent of praising President Rajapakse as the first leader to have successfully terminated terrorism by military means alone. The Sri Lankan Government (SLG) has claimed that the armed forces of some countries have approached Sri Lanka for training in counter-terrorism techniques.

With the “intoxication” induced by all these goodies, the doubt arises as to whether the overall vision of SLG is becoming blurred by “triumphalism” and/or by the “chauvinistic” demands of its supporters, leading to the ignoring of ground realities. The president and his advisers seem to have concluded that the military defeat of LTTE has at the same time ended the struggle of the Tamils for “equal” citizenship. I would like to sound a note of caution that, while the militant leaders of a major terrorist group have been eliminated or neutralized, the seeds of militancy and terrorism will remain as long as the basic grievances and deprivations are not addressed and effectively resolved. The seemingly low priority accorded to any meaningful progress in evolving a consensual political solution to the Tamil ethnic issue poses the threat that, with the basic causes existing and a solution by peaceful dialogue being indefinitely delayed, other groups or leaders may emerge who once again feel pushed into militancy. US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia and former Ambassador to Sri Lanka (Robert O Blake) has also warned that Sri Lanka's failure to share power with minority Tamils after the end of the war could lead to renewed violence.

History has shown that a political solution, delivered or credibly promised, is an essential component of reconciliation, in situations as in Sri Lanka. Positive and negative examples can be found in India (the partition of India instigated by the British policy of “divide and rule” when discussions - as advised by Rajaji - might have resulted in an indigenous solution, secessionist and anti-north noises in Tamil Nadu, militancy in Punjab and Mizoram, etc.), erstwhile Soviet Union, China and in many other areas of the world. History has also shown that a mono (ethnic / linguistic / theistic / ideological) State cannot survive for long in a nation whose peoples are multi (ethnic / linguistic / theistic / ideological). Such states have either to perish (as in the Soviet Union) or change (as in USA in mid-1880s, China during its economic turn-around); but the nations survive, with their multi ethnic / linguistic / theistic / ideological nature intact. The lessons of history can be ignored only at one’s own risk.

War consists of a series of actions by the parties involved in the confrontation, but peace is a combination of a state of mind and harmony between all the different ethnic groups that populate Sri Lanka. The president had earlier hinted that a political solution would be offered once the military operations ended. There was also the hint that when the report of the All Party Representative Committee (APRC - under Tissa Vitharana.) was finalized, it would be implemented. Later, the non-participation of the TNA in the formulation of a policy for reconciliation was stated to be delaying progress. The president subsequently convened the All Party Meeting for Development and Reconciliation – without any linkage between political solution (power devolution) and reconciliation. Meanwhile, local body elections were held in Jaffna and Vavuniya without a clear definition of the issues, with very low turnout and with mixed results. President Rajapakse has also reportedly stated that he needs a fresh mandate for working towards a political solution. It is difficult to comprehend as to why separate mandates are required to wage war and to make peace, as making peace is the natural culmination of a successful war effort. These apparently dilatory tactics generate scepticism about a real intention to evolve an equitable political solution. Robert Blake has also warned that if SLG keeps on delaying announcing a political solution, "there is a possibility that they will alienate the Tamil community further and again exacerbate the divisions, and perhaps even give new opportunities for the LTTE”.

It should be obvious that rehabilitation, reconciliation, development and restoration (of democracy) are the most essential measures to be taken without delay. There should be no rigidity in attempting these measures sequentially, as apparently opined by SLG, and efforts need to be made to tackle them almost simultaneously. With the elimination of the military capabilities of the LTTE, SLG can negotiate from a position of strength. It should recognize that the LTTE had indeed brutalized Tamils everywhere and that the LTTE, despite its own grandiose claims, was never synonymous with all Tamils of Sri Lanka. The Sinhalese can and should deal with their Tamil fellow-countrymen in a non-patronising but magnanimous manner and seek national reconciliation. Although the president has repeatedly promised to be generous to the Tamil minority, the fine points of the government’s position are yet to emerge. The deep disappointment of USA with President Rajapakse for relegating the devolution of power in the Tamil majority areas to the back-burner until after the presidential election has been publicly expressed by Robert Blake. He has urged that SLG should figure out ways to have an early dialogue with the Tamil community.

The decision to prohibit the use of ethnic or linguistic identities in the names of political parties is fraught with dangerous possibilities in a multi-ethnic and multi-lingual country. One can only hope that better counsels would ultimately prevail.

Armed Forces

It is not unknown for grateful governments to grant higher ranks to military leaders who have successfully led the armed forces to a significant victory. However, the quick restructuring of the command setup, with the appointment of General Fonseca as Chief of Defense Staff and the vesting of extraordinary powers in the CDS and the Defense Secretary, are intriguing. The accountability of the armed forces to the civilian authority of a cabinet may be diluted.

Normally, the end of war operations results in the reduction in the strength of the armed forces, through demobilization and diversion of excess manpower. However, SLG proposes to expand the armed forces and regularly deploy military units in the north and the east. These new (permanent) deployments are likely to be in the nature of cantonments, i.e. family stations. Depending on the ethnic profile of the deployed forces, this may become another cause for resentment. Also, apart from any effects on the demographic profile of these areas, these trends raise the distinct possibility of the armed forces becoming an additional and credible power center in Sri Lankan politics.

Internally Displaced Persons (IDP)

More than 250,000 refugees (somewhat euphemistically referred to as Internally Displaced Persons - IDP) are in “relief” camps and additional thousands had been semi-permanently “displaced” in earlier years. There are credible reports that the conditions in these camps are as good as could be expected in the current circumstances, but there are contradictory reports (including one by a BBC correspondent who had recently visited one of the camps) that these are in fact internment camps. The president has said that these IDP cannot yet go back to their homes, which (in his words) are “jungles”. A delay in total de-mining of their home areas is one of the reasons cited for their continuing in the camps. The “screening” of the refugees is another cause for delaying their rehabilitation. The claim that more than 40,000 Tamil families have already been rehabilitated in their homes severely strains the credibility of an analyst.

Makeshift hovels in unsatisfactory conditions would be fertile breeding grounds for resentment and the seeds of further future unrest are being nurtured there. The frustration, anger and neglect of legitimate grievances of an already marginalized Tamil population are bound to make ethnic reconciliation and lasting peace distant dreams. There is need for a sense of urgency in resettling the refugees in their old homes. International support and help would certainly be available if the SLG comes out with viable and verifiable procedures. In the meantime, SLG could usefully bring in more transparency in the administration of these camps, by forming monitoring groups with members from different shades of the political spectrum, including Tamils.

The US has also demanded that steps should be taken to ensure that the international community, the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross and others have access to the camps, so that it could be verified that everything that goes on in these camps is up to international standards. The Tamil leadership should, at the minimum, pursue this idea vigorously. They should also demand that their representatives should have access to the camps and to the refugees.

Human Rights

A certain amount of restrictions on human rights would have to be expected when a government is prosecuting a war. The situation should, however, be reversed as soon as possible after the war ends. On the contrary, the current indications are that the president and SLG are increasing intolerant of criticism or dissent, particularly from the media. The “white car” activity and “missing persons” phenomenon are said to be continuing. Except during Eelam War IV, Sri Lanka has had a fairly good record in the area of human rights – if one considers ethnic violence from both sides as an unfortunate national aberration. President Rajapakse would be well advised to take personal initiative to improve the respect for the human rights of all citizens and residents of Sri Lanka.

Economy

Every war imposes severe economic hardships on all citizens. Conversion from a war-driven economy to a peace-dictated economy is even normally slow and painful. The general downturn in global economic activity would make it even more difficult for SLG. There is a school of thought which believes that, if the policies of SLG do not bring about a quick turn-around in the peace-time economy, the sufferings of the people would increase. The possibility that economic discontent may bring the Sinhalas and the Tamils together in their common disaffection against the SLG’s handling of the economic difficulties is also being spoken about. In my personal view, the ethnic division has been made so deep-rooted in the last few decades that the economy has probably reach a near-collapse situation, for the ethnic animosities to be forgotten in attempts to forge a common anti-SLG front. The highly developed survival instinct of the president and his supporters may not let such a situation come about.

Tamil Leadership

The civil leadership of Sri Lankan Tamils had surrendered, not necessarily voluntarily, their leadership role to the LTTE for more than twenty years. They now seem unable to recognize and discharge their new (but natural) responsibilities and opportunities. Their public inactivity and seeming non-involvement in the speedy evolution of a political solution, coupled with the president’s ability to take unquestioned unilateral actions, give the impression that they also subscribe to the SLG’s view that the entire Tamil movement had been defeated when the LTTE was administered its military defeat. It is time that the Tamil leadership get out of their LTTE-imposed stupor and start functioning again as responsible leaders of a marginalized and “deprived” community.

It would perhaps be out of place for me to suggest courses of action to the Tamil leadership, but they could usefully consider some of the following measures:

a. Openly and clearly disown the militancy of LTTE and seek a peaceful resolution within the framework of a unified Sri Lankan nation.

b. Use the delays imposed by the president, to organize themselves into cadre-based parties working amongst the people, with whom they have had little interaction or meaningful contact for two decades.

c. Be politically active and mobilize public opinion throughout Sri Lanka, in favour of ethnic reconciliation at the national level.

d. Consider a coordinated effort by all the Tamil parties, through a “Joint Action Committee”, to demand and urge forward movement on the package for political devolution – instead of merely of waiting for crumbs to fall from the presidential table.

e. Behave as “Sri Lankan” political parties and not look for inspiration and support from outside the country.

Sri Lanka - India

The emerging trend seems to be to sideline India as much as possible. In the field of economic relations, India is increasingly being relegated from its traditional “first choice” role for collaboration in major projects, particularly in the field of infrastructural development. Reports speak of Sri Lanka and China having signed agreements worth USD 350 million relating to the bunkering facility at Hambanthotta and the expressway from Colombo to the Kattanayake Airport. While the Hambanthotta deal can be understood as being part of a composite project, it would be difficult to justify the exclusion of Indian companies from bidding for the expressway project. The Government of India and Indian companies have to take note of this disturbing trend and devise measures to restore India’s leading role in Sri Lanka’s economic development. Special emphasis would be necessary on projects related to the Tamil-populated areas. Preparedness on the part of Indian companies to make significant investments in Sri Lanka and tax incentives for such investment may be useful steps. Essentially, India could try to be more cooperative and helpful on the economic front.

Politically, India has little option but to continue her unobtrusive, non- interventionist, persuasive role in working towards the Tamils being treated as equal citizens the same as the Sinhalas, Muslims etc. The recent statement of the Indian High Commissioner (Alok Prasad), linking a broad-based political settlement to the resettlement of war displaced, should be welcomed. India would not be alone in such an approach. Robert Blake has bluntly stated that continued US aid to Sri Lanka would depend on how expeditiously the Rajapakse government alleviates the lot of the hundreds of thousands of internally displaced Tamil refugees and "on the progress that is made towards political reconciliation and devolution power."
In matters relating to relief and rehabilitation, India could and should be much more pro-active, supportive and involved. It should never be forgotten that Sri Lankan Tamils are natural allies of the Indian people and the government, and that India cannot but help them to attain their legitimate aspirations.

Conclusion

In this critical crossroad of Sri Lankan history, it is for President Rajapakse to decide on his place in that history. Does he want to be known as the Sri Lankan version of Abraham Lincoln, who rendered justice to all citizens irrespective of their ethnicity and helped build a unified multi-ethnic Sri Lanka? Or would he be satisfied with being the president who perpetuated the ethnic division and fractured the country for a long time to come?

[The author, R.Swaminathan, is President & DG, International Institute of Security & Safety Management, New Delhi; and former Special Secretary, DG (Security), Government of India. The paper was prepared to form the basis of his presentation at the National Seminar on India's Foreign Policy: Continuity and Change, organized by the University of Pondicherry on 27 and 28 August 2009, at Pondicherry. He can be contacted at rsnathan@gmail.com]

SRI LANKA: Some Comments on ‘Execution Video’

A highly disturbing video showing the mafia style execution of a naked man said to be a Tamil prisoner, with his hands tied behind his back, by a soldier was shown on Headlines Today TV today. Yesterday British audience saw it on Channel 4. The video footage claimed to have been shot with a mobile phone camera by a Sri Lankan soldier sometime in January 2009 was sent to the media by the Journalists for Democracy in Sri Lanka, a group of Sinhala and Tamil journalists living in exile.

[The comments given below were made on specific issues raised by the Headlines Today TV and as mentioned in the TV broadcast do not minimise the gravity of the accusation made in the video.]

Genuineness of the video

The Sri Lanka authorities were quick to dismiss the video as a doctored one “to defame the Sri Lankan government and armed forces.” Sri Lankan argument cannot be dismissed off hand as the LTTE has mastered the psychological warfare techniques. And Sri Lanka had made a special effort during the course of the three-year old Eelam War IV to counter the LTTE propaganda with its own psychological warfare ploys. Doctored videos have figured in the past as part of the warfare.

Regardless of public perception, the Sri Lanka government has to make an effort to establish it as a fake one because the video has planted a seed of doubt in public mind. To this extent the purpose of those who produced the video and disseminated it to the media has probably been achieved. .

Under the circumstances, the genuineness of the video will probably be never known unless it undergoes a forensic examination. This has to be done by a neutral agency as the Sri Lanka authorities have already dismissed it as a fake. And in the current environment in Sri Lanka, the government is unlikely to entrust the task of authentication to a neutral agency.

Is such an action possible?

There had been a number of complaints of human rights violations in the past in Sri Lanka in which perpetrators of killings and abductions have not been identified or brought to book. As a result among sections of public doubts continue to linger about the sincerity of authorities in investigating and prosecuting such cases. Commissions of inquiry appointed to inquire into them have not enjoyed the freedom or autonomy to do their jobs satisfactorily. Their conduct had not been transparent or above board. Witnesses have been intimidated, and the media freedom to probe such incidents has been curtailed due to fear of retaliation.

This is not related merely to the Eelam War or the Tamil issue but to the larger attitude of the authorities to the rule of law. Some of the ministers have been a law unto themselves and their conduct in a few instances has lowered the dignity of their office. This has been a cause of concern to President Mahinda Rajapaksa also. Increasing instances of police lawlessness has been repeatedly figuring in news reports during this month. Unless there is a genuine effort to clean up of the way the government and administration conducts itself both in private and public, peoples the confidence in the rulers is likely to deteriorate.

And Sri Lanka is not the only nation where such human rights violations, including custodial killings, have been reported. Indian and Pakistani media have been splashing the news of similar instances in their countries. However in Sri Lanka the damage done by such reports is much more as the nation is already facing a problem in reconciling the fractured trust between Sinhala and Tamil communities. So any report that affects the process of reconciliation has to be attended to. Unfortunately this is not happening. And the tragedy is that the feeling insecurity among Tamils is not helped by videos depicting cold blooded killing of unarmed men by soldiers.

On international perceptions

Sri Lanka’s poor human rights record has repeatedly figured in UN forums including the UN Security Council. Whether the video is genuine or not, it adds yet another foil to the human rights activists to take it up in international forums. We can expect this to happen in the coming months. How much it will improve the human rights in Sri Lanka is a question that can be answered by its government only.

SRI LANKA: Monsoon Miseries of IDPs

The Menik Farm complex and its temporary shelters, showcased last month as model for camps for people displaced due to the war, has become camps of misery for the residents as monsoon rains are lashing the area.

Sri Lanka media of all shades of opinion have highlighted the terrible conditions created by incessant monsoon rains particularly in camp 2 and camp 4. Tents and temporary shelters are down or collapsed making them unliveable. Some camps do not have access to even water supply. Cooking is not possible and cooked food is not reaching the needy. Toilets are choked or busted. Storm drainage is either not existing or flooded. "As rain waters filled with sewage matter, maggots and human excreta rose in tents sheltering some 20,000 IDPs" is one description of the condition from the media.


And apparently the local administration and the NGOs working at these camps find the task of providing relief to those beleaguered in the flooded camps beyond their limited capability. And monsoon season is not yet over. The logical sequence of the tragedy would be outbreak of epidemic diseases like gastro enteritis striking the affected people. Another hidden danger is that land mines tend to get shifted due to flooding.

Everyone knew this was waiting to happen; monsoon rains have a pre-ordained regularity about them. The NGOs and the media spoke and wrote about it. The authorities and humanitarian agencies, who sited some of the camps in low lying areas, also knew the area was prone to flooding during the monsoon rains. Yet they went ahead and created the camps probably because they did not expect the residents of these camps to be stationed there indefinitely. Probably they were situated as they were for ensuring better physical security than any other reason.

In June itself the government had said the UN agencies were responsible for construction of drainage systems and flood preventive measures at the camp sites. So it was not surprising when the Minister of Resettlement and Disaster Management, Rizad Bathiudeen put the blame on them now. He said "The UN agencies involved in the IDP camps had taken the responsibility of constructing the drainage systems and flood preventive measures. So the Government cannot be blamed for the poor condition of the drainage systems which burst and failed." But the issue is not who is to be blamed, but providing relief to the affected people.

Unfortunately this simple truth appears to have been forgotten as the release of civilians has become a political issue. The opposition United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil Wickremesinghe recently asked the government to expedite the release of civilians held in these camps and inform parliament of the steps taken in this respect. The UNP leaders had strongly criticized the government for detaining innocent people.

And in his hard hitting repartee, Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa had a different take. He accused the opposition of playing politics in what was essentially a national security issue. He highlighted the danger of LTTE operatives living amidst the IDPs in camps. He also pointed out the problem that could be posed if they gain access to the arms and explosives hidden in Vanni.

This aspect cannot be ignored by the government as arms and military equipment caches of LTTE are being unearthed almost everyday and quite a few investigations have been taken up to uncover LTTE�s support network among civilians. But at the same time, the government has an obligation for the welfare of civilians at large. It is not clear how the release of pregnant women, small children and the aged would compromise security. Their continued stay in camps would be only an exercise in humiliating a population that was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

It is clear the Sri Lanka government has suborned all other issues to the continued war against the LTTE. Unfortunately, the humanitarian issues have become casualties in this mix up of priorities. And politicisation of the issue has further messed up action.

A delegation of concerned citizens including Mangala Samaraweera, MP and leader of the breakaway group of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) recently met the Indian External Affairs Minister SM Krishna and made a representation regarding the IDPs. The group sought India to pressurize the Sri Lanka government to demilitarize the camp administration and the rehabilitation process.

It is not clear what action New Delhi has taken on the subject of IDPs. They are likely to continue their stay camps well beyond six months. Indian High Commissioner's message in Colombo on the occasion of the Independence Day conveyed to Sri Lanka that a "broad-based political settlement" of the ethnic conflict would enable the Rs.500-crore relief, reconstruction and rehabilitation package for the nearly three lakh war displaced to be utilised in a more effective and efficient manner.

Does this mean the relief and reconstruction package would come into play when a broad based political settlement is made? Given the political developments in Sri Lanka, India might have to wait a long time for that to happen.

In the meanwhile, what about the IDPs plight? Human dignity is beyond mere supply of relief and construction materials. Will some of our worthy parliament members, who spoke eloquently about the agony of Tamilians in the run up to the elections, take up the issue? Or is it business as usual?
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