Should India vote for war crime motion on Sri Lanka?

[This article was written for and published by www.rediff.com before the voting at UNHRC on March 22.]

This is a question that is being debated not only in the UN Human Rights Council meeting at Geneva or Sri Lanka, but in India as well. This came about, typically the way Parliament responds to issues these days, after members from Tamil Nadu stalled the crucial pre-budget parliamentary session, says Colonel R Hariharan.

Clearly Indian government is trying to find its famous "middle path" to make up its mind. And 'middle path' as per its standard operative procedure is to buy time. So we see the hapless minister, facing the flak from the media and other political parties, indulging in word play rather than answering question squarely.

Sri Lanka: Making LLRC Report Meaningful

By Col R Hariharan

The Rajapaksa government should be happy with the report of the Commission of Inquiry on Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation (LLRC) presented to the Sri Lankan parliament on December 16, 2011 as it has not pinpointed responsibility on anyone (other than political and systemic weaknesses and the LTTE) for the mess Sri Lanka finds itself after the Eelam War.

The report provides badly needed breathing space for the government, as the Commission has has done a fairly good job if one goes by the President’s mandate given to it. The well written report analyses in detail the reasons for past and present discontent of Tamils and has drawn the government attention to a number issues that had triggered Tamil insurgency.

Sri Lanka Perspectives: October 2011

By Col R Hariharan

Overview

In the first half of the month, the Sri Lanka scene was dominated by the final phase of the local body elections in which President Rajapaksa’s United People Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition scored a massive success underlining his continued popularity.

In the second half, the Commonwealth Heads of State Meeting (CHOGM) held at Perth, Australia came into the limelight as it considered the creation of a Human Rights watchdog for the Commonwealth.  Sri Lanka felt this as targeted move against the country as it continued to be in a state of denial over the alleged war crimes committed by Sri Lanka Army during the last stage of Eelam War. However, the proposal sponsored mainly by Britain, Canada and Australia was not accepted. Similarly Sri Lanka also ran the risk of losing its opportunity to host the CHOGM 2013 when Canada and the UK suggested changing the venue. However, again thanks to the support of Afro-Asian members this was also rejected.    

Myanmar’s chances for ASEAN chairmanship brighten

By Col. R. Hariharan 

Myanmar President Thein Sein must be rejoicing at the visiting Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa’s comment that political reforms in Myanmar looked "irreversible." Reuters quoted the Indonesian Minister as saying, “I wish to believe and I get the sense that they are meant to be irreversible. I did not get any indication that the process will stop.” 

According to the report he said he had urged Myanmar's leaders to release more political prisoners and take greater steps to reconcile with restive ethnic groups. He expected progress in these areas before the country assumes the chair of ASEAN. 

Sri Lanka: FAQs on Channel 4 videos on war crimes - Part 2

Transcurrents.com had carried my earlier blog on Channel 4 videsos

(http://transcurrents.com/news-views/archives/2202#comment-8859). It evoked large scale response from readers. While some of them were the familiar India-bashing type, one of the reader asked a few interesting questions which reflected the suspicions about India's role in Sri Lanka prevalents among sections of Sri Lankans. I chose one to answer that had the most interesting questions. I am giving below my answers to this reader  which are carried in www.transcurrents.com  under the heading "Sri Lanka did not bother to listen to international friends who helped it win the war - Col R Hariharan"

(http://transcurrents.com/news-views/archives/2339  for your reading. 

Since Jazz has raised some interesting questions. I am normally accustomed to abusive language, which Sri Lankans seem to be fond of while discussing India. However, as he has politely worded his questions, I am answering them:

1. Do you believe that military forces around the world conduct ‘clean’ wars? If so, please be kind enough to mention those forces. Do you honestly believe that any kind of ‘war’ can be ‘clean’ in present day context?

Bad days for Armed Forces

Col R Hariharan

Britain has just announced massive cuts in the armed forces. Britain spends $ 38 billion dollars a year on defence; does it need such a luxury when Rule Britannia has been reduced to history books? This is the moot point the nation is trying to answer. The woes of the British military, which once ensured "the Empire on which the sun never sets," appear endless. A Ministry of Defence’s survey of 10,500 Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force personnel carried out in 2009 was revealing. Most of them were suffering from low morale and major concerns over the military equipment they used on the frontline in Afghanistan.

Gen Richard Dannat, Chief of General Staff, went public about the state of his troops fighting in Afghanistan. He spoke of poor pay and acute shortages of essential equipment including helicopters for soldiers in operation. Prime Minister Gordon Brown did not take it kindly; his government denied the outspoken General the appointment of the Chief of Defence Staff. The latest job cuts in defence particularly in the Royal Airforce are not going to go down well. And the Royal Navy's legendary aircraft carriers will be starving without aircraft.

But it is not only in Britain the armed forces are going to be unhappy. In general, these are not happy days for armies in the Western world. Already British and French armies are smaller than ever before. Their influence on national policy making is waning as the scope and content of national security is growing well beyond physical security. The process is not uniform and varies with historical military traditions and ethos of different nations.

On one extreme we have Turkey, a later day convert to democracy where the army had been the self appointed of guardian of secularism. In the past, whenever its primacy was threatened, the army came down hard on civilian rulers. But Ankara is fast changing now. A referendum held in September has voted for constitutional reforms to curtail the powers of the military. The package of reforms put up by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) aims at making the armed forces more accountable to civil courts. This is happening in spite of the army’s well founded suspicion that the AKP is a fellow traveller of Islamic fundamentalists.

At the other end we have countries like Sweden and Norway with armies populated large by short-term compulsory service cadres with only a sprinkling of career soldiers. In the West, as memories of the Cold War fade, most of the armies are leading a hand to mouth existence. As an analyst said the military is now seen in Europe more as an employment programme to keep the number of jobless down, than to maintain military power.While a unified EU force may still be distant dream, many member states are cutting down their force levels.

Involvement of European armies in the conflict in Afghanistan has exposed serious shortages in weaponry and equipment. Many of the ISAF armies found problems of replacement and maintenance dogging them. For instance though both Britain and France claim their armies are technically on par with the U.S., true strength of armies comes from their power to hold on to their dominance on ground and protect it from threats in land, air and sea. And this is what they lack. Strapped military budgets are blunting their sharp edges. French military pride fostered from the days of Napoleon’s Grand Armèe seems to be wearing thin as it has become expensive to maintain a well equipped, fighting fit army. To overcome the problems of funding, President Sarkozy had proposed a unified European military or a well equipped intervention force. British military chiefs were also exploring closer links with the French.

Frederick the Great said “Diplomacy without arms is like music without instruments.” In the coming years Europe would probably be playing its muted diplomatic tunes with only chamber orchestras of armies.

The story was no better with the Russian armed forces till President Putin pulled them out of the morass of low esteem and shortages. In the U.S., the role of military that went up during President George W Bush’s tenure is now being pruned by his successor Barack Obama. In keeping with election promise to pull back troops from Afghanistan, Obama’s national strategic policy 2010 talks of giving diplomacy, rather than the military, a larger role in the U.S.’s global power projection. The President substantiated this by sacking General McChrystal, commander of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan, when the General made public his differences with Washington’s war strategy.

In South Asia most of the countries have used their armies as tools for sustaining governments characterised by poor governance and political corruption. These armies with their colonial baggage had been useful in crushing extremism and insurgencies. The Indian National Congress came to power after its non-violent struggle for freedom under Gandhiji’s leadership succeeded. This has probably coloured the early Indian perception on the role of the army as watchdog of the rulers rather than guardian of national security.

Perhaps, there was also a suspicion about former colonial army’s readiness to function under an elected civilian government. This is probably what prompted Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to write a letter to General Lockhart, commander in chief, two days before India became independent. He wrote: “In any policy that is to be pursued, in the Army or otherwise, the views of the Government of India and the policy they lay down must prevail. If any person is unable to lay down that policy, he has no place in the Indian Army or in the Indian structure of Government.” While the armed forces have been following this dictum, successive governments failed to lay down policies not only on national security but also on a host of issues related to security forces and their competency.

The progressive downgrading of armed forces officers in the bureaucratic barometer of order of precedence reflects this mindset. The roller coaster downslide has now put the army chief is on par with the chairman of the Union Public Service Commission. This is more than symbolic.

Even in defence policy making. India is perhaps one country where service chiefs are only on listening watch. This is in spite of using the armed forces continuously for six decades in both external and internal wars of many hues. Even now India’s National Security Council (modelled on its U.S counterpart) presided over by the Prime Minister has besides the National Security Advisor, the ministers of Defence, External Affairs, Home, and Finance of the Union government and the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission as members. Contrast this with President Obama’s National Security Council which has the Joint Chiefs of Staff as a statutory attendee.

So it is not surprising that even issues concerning the combat readiness of the armed forces stagnate for want of timely decision making. It has become routine to recast the recommendations of successive pay commissions (with only civil bureaucrats as members) on armed forces pay and allowances after the service chiefs complain about them. Veterans have been treated shabbily and we see them taking to the streets, returning their medals and burning their artificial limbs to remind the government of unfulfilled promises.

Recently the Supreme Court which sought an independent pay tribunal exclusively for the armed forces, flew into a rage over the “insensitive bureaucracy” at the Centre that was throwing a spanner into the proposal, citing financial constraints. A Bench of Justices Markandey Katju and TS Thakur said,“Sitting somewhere in a plush office in Delhi and finding faults in each proposal is easy. This Defence Secretary must be sent for 10 days to these high altitudes… At least see the conditions in which these people serve.” As the media reports said the judges were critical of the bureaucracy’s apathy towards the armed forces. The Bench noted, “If this was a proposal for the bureaucrats, it would soon be implemented. We don’t expect the bureaucracy to support this proposal…We need to deal with them (armed forces) separately as a distinct class.”

In spite of all this, the armed forces strive hard to meet the near impossible expectations of the rulers and people. People forget that soldiers come from the same society in which corruption, absence of rule of law and human rights violations have become endemic. Twelve months of military training alone cannot completely change the mindset of soldiers coming from rural societies steeped in caste prejudices and politics and human rights violations. Unless there is social change we cannot expect the armed forces to be insulated forever from the pernicious influences.

Added to this is the problem of employing army in counter insurgency operations. In such situations armed forces have become the whipping boys for national maladies mostly because it is convenient. Those who criticise the army of high handedness forget that since 1990 as many as 1,473 of 1,511 cases of human rights violation or abuse levelled against security forces personnel have been proved false after investigation. Traditionally military leaders maintain a low profile unlike politicians or the intellectual class. If the service chiefs comment on vital issues affecting their professional competency or national security, the bureaucracy and politicians get restive and media frowns.

Take the case of New Delhi’s the latest discovery that Armed Forces Special Powers Act, and not inept governance or bankrupt policies, was at the root of the unrest in Srinagar valley. So the government seriously considered the repeal of the Act in parts of unrest in Kashmir to improve the situation. But appears to have taken a more sensible approach to it. But the sad thing is not one political leader of the ruling class had the moral courage to condemn terrorists and political leaders inciting the riotous mobs to carry out intifida – a form of indirect warfare. In the remaining cases 104 personnel were punished. It is easy for policy makers to forget that between 1988 and the first seven months of 2010, 5962 security personnel have lost their lives in Kashmir. But how can the soldiers forget?

So it is no wonder that Indian armed forces are no more a popular career option. I suppose politicians can take consolation that this is the trend world over. With the technology boom triggering growth, better class of people are reluctant to bear the hardship of serving in the Indian army deployed in difficult areas. Huge shortages in officers are affecting the operational capability and overload the officer class which is always expected to "do or die" regardless of problems. This sums up India's military prepardness as we read everyday of new threats in many dimensions developing in South Asian environment.

(The writer is a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, and associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies.)

SRI LANKA PERSPECTIVES - JULY 2010

Col R Hariharan (Retd.)

Initiatives to win over Diaspora

Sri Lanka appears to have scored a major success in winning over a section of the Tamil Diaspora that had actively supported the LTTE to participate in the reconstruction process in the Tamil areas. This was confirmed in a newspaper interview by Kumaran Pathmanathan (KP) who was the LTTE’s international affairs representative now in Sri Lankan custody. His newly formed outfit ‘The North-East Rehabilitation and Development Organisation' (NERDO) located in Vavuniya, was preparing to play a key role in the rehabilitation, reconstruction and resettlement processes in the war ravaged areas. He expected the support for the move from the Tamil Diaspora. KP had influential connections in the Diaspora in his LTTE days.

Justifying his action to collaborate with the government, he said it was essential for Tamils to realise the ground realities in a post-LTTE era in the island nation and review its strategy to meet the new challenges. His said he was only “concerned about the welfare of the people, particularly children, though some seek fresh funding to cause mayhem. People are fed up with war and every effort should be made to alleviate their suffering without playing politics with a purely humanitarian motive.” His effort could find favour with sections of Diaspora who are still suspicious of Sri Lanka government moves.

In his interview, KP attributed the defeat of the LTTE to the change in global political leaders’ attitude to the LTTE prompted by the 9/11 al Qaeda attack and the US led war on al Qaeda. Prabhakaran did not realise the urgent need to change the LTTE strategy accordingly. KP’s observation “there is a new world order today, which does not tolerate armed campaigns and that is the hard reality,” showed a lot of pragmatism.

Apart from these efforts, Sri Lanka with the help of INTERPOL has launched a coordinated effort to dismantle LTTE’s international network using information gathered by the Sri Lankan military intelligence from captured documents. In particular the recent unearthing of highly classified documents and diaries of Castro, former head of the LTTE's international wing, at Viswamadu has given details of LTTE international activists engaged in human trafficking, arms smuggling and financial bases in East Asia, Western Europe, Canada and Africa. This carrot and stick method could induce more Diaspora to support KP’s rehabilitation effort as many sections of Diaspora who consider rehabilitation as the priority.

The increasing public projection of KP in spite of his detention has caused jitters among Tamil politicians who consider it as Rajapaksa’s ploy to destabilise them by allowing KP to participate in politics.

LTTE prisoners

The Commissioner General of Rehabilitation in a media interview has said that 7,948 former LTTE combatants, including about 1,100 females were still undergoing rehabilitation. He said 700 of the 1,100 females were now working in the garment trade. About 400 are being trained as Montessori teachers while others were learning English, IT and drama ‘therapy’. He said families of detained persons were regularly allowed to visit them.

When the war ended last year the army held 11,686 LTTE cadres, including members of the suicide squad as prisoners. They were kept in more than 20 detention centres after the war. Now only 12 such centres, including two meant for women, were operational. All ex-LTTE child soldiers have been handed over to their parents after undergoing rehabilitation training.

Among the detainees 737 hardcore elements have been identified and charge sheets are being prepared to prosecute them.

Conditions in Northern Province

The Ceylon Communist Party has come out with a detailed field report on the prevailing conditions in war ravaged Northern Province. The report has said though the government’s massive physical infrastructure programme was going on, many old and new issues in the environment have denied the people any sense of liberation. On the contrary, they felt betrayed both by the LTTE and the State though both had promised them liberation. People were in a confused, disillusioned, abandoned and demoralized state of mind.

The physical reconstruction programme was focusing on basic infrastructure such as roads and telecommunication. Reconstructed government departments, modernized urban commercial centres and towns were active and flourishing with 15 major banks and financial agencies opening offices in Jaffna. However, vast majority of the population were leading a life below subsistence level.

Army was present everywhere along the roads, in villages and towns. In many areas landmine clearance has been undertaken. Army’s continued presence, reinforcement and expansion of the security forces have become a cause for concern for the people. People were anxious about role of the security forces in controlling and monitoring their social, cultural and religious activities for fear of reprisals. However, incidence of abductions, rape and torture and generalized abuse has drastically come down.

The report said the government simply lacked the political will for undertaking an accelerated, comprehensive and integrated process of resettlement, rehabilitation, reconstruction and development. The rehabilitation effort was pitiful, since the general public and civil society of the country was not being mobilized in the relief process. The government gave permission to only a selected few of them to operate in the Province.

Attack on media network

A dozen men armed with assault rifles and petrol bombs attacked the offices of privately owned Voice of Asia Network in the early hours of July 30. The network controls three FM stations including Vettri FM, a Tamil one. According to the management said in the attack its studios, control room and library were destroyed. Two persons were injured.

The owners had backed the main opposition candidate, ex-army chief Sarath Fonseka, in the last presidential election. Another journalist Eknaligoda, a critic of the government and supporter of Fonseka, who disappeared two days before the election in January has still not been traced. The attacks have not enhanced Sri Lanka’s reputation as a state where media criticism is not tolerated.

Increasing Chinese footprint

Zhang Ze - Deputy Director of the Department of treaty of and Law of the Foreign Affairs Ministry of China and ten Chinese army officers including senior colonels, lieutenant colonels and majors were on a visit northern and eastern provinces East including Kilinochchi, Mannar and Mullaitivu to advise on use of de-mining equipment supplied by the Chinese and to provide knowledge on de-mining tasks.
China has also assisted the army re-deployment process in the north after the war.

Chinese pre-fabricated technology was being used in permanent buildings constructed for the forces. Already the army has established the 68 Division headquarters at Sugandirapuram, Puthukudirippu east of the Kandy-Jaffna A9 road. According to the army commander, although the Jaffna peninsula had seen the largest concentration of forces before Eelam war IV, today the biggest deployment was in the Vanni. With permanent buildings coming up for army in government land, the army hopes to vacate private buildings and land occupied by them.

EU tariff concessions

The European Union has officially announced that Sri Lanka would lose the GSP+ trade concessions in August after it failed to respond to a set of conditions laid down by the Commission. However it was open for negotiations with the Sri Lankan government despite the decision.

The EU also expressed regretted Sri Lanka’s decision to remain silent on the proposals by the EU for Sri Lanka to obtain a temporary extension of the trade tariff benefits by meeting some conditions. In June the EU had offered to delay the suspension of GSP+ trade concessions by six months if Sri Lanka responded to its questions on tangible progress on shortcomings in its implementation of three UN human rights conventions a number of outstanding issues. However, the government had firmly rejected the EU conditional offer.
31 July 2010

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends,Vol 4 No 6 July 2010
www.security-risks.com

Sri Lanka Perspectives - June 2010

By Col R Hariharan

India-Sri Lanka relations

India and Sri Lanka signed seven agreements during President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s visit to New Delhi from June 8 to 11, 2010. The maiden visit after his re-election may be considered a success for the President as India barely touched upon sensitive issues like the UN advisory panel on human rights violations during the war and devolution of powers to Tamil minority in the interactions with the President and his delegation.

Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s statement that “a meaningful devolution package, building upon the 13th Amendment, would create the necessary conditions for a lasting political settlement” showed by and large India had accepted the Rajapaksa approach. India’s stress on rehabilitation issues of Tamils would indicate that its continued focus on this aspect rather than on resuming a dialogue on ethnic issues. The allocation of Rs 1000 crores as assistance to build 50,000 houses for people displaced due to the war and other assistance to improve communication and other infrastructure illustrate this.

In a bid to build closer relations both countries agreed upon taking a number of steps. These include improving interconnectivity with the introduction of Colombo-Tuticorin, Talaimannar-Rameswaram ferry services, Indian assistance to improve Palaly Airport and Kankesanthurai Harbour, and conducting a feasibility study for linking electricity grids of the two countries. India has also offered to extend the bandwidth to set up satellite-interactive terminals in Sri Lanka.

The joint statement issued after the meeting between the President and Indian Prime Minister indicated some cautious steps taken to build closer strategic relations. These include: India’s assurance to examine a Sri Lankan suggestion for establishing a joint information mechanism on the likely oil and gas fields straddling India- Sri Lanka maritime boundary; promotion of dialogue on security and defence issues including an annual defence dialogue; and promoting the use of space technology for a variety of services. The Treaty on Mutual Legal Assistance on Criminal Matters and Agreement on Transfer of Sentenced Prisoners signed during the visit would provide for structural improvement to security and legal framework.
The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) proposal was not mentioned in the joint statement, although measures for developing “a framework for sustainable economic partnership and addressing outstanding issues” of the Free Trade Agreement found a place in the joint statement. This would indicate that CEPA would come up sooner than later. The agreement on establishing Indian consular presence in Jaffna and in Hambantota also should be viewed in the context of furthering trading interests rather than strategic linkages.

China-Sri Lanka agreements

Chinese Vice-Premier, Zhang Dejiang led a 30-member delegation to Sri Lanka on a three-day official trip close on the heels of President Rajapaksa's visit to India. It showed Sri Lanka’s careful balancing of relations between India and China.

During the visit Sri Lanka signed six agreements for enhanced cooperation in highways development, information technology and communications, development of maritime ports and the second phase of the Hambantota Port Development project (for which China has offered financial assistance of US$ 200 million) and maintenance of the Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall built by China.

Vice Premier Zhang, when he met President Rajapaksa on June 12, also discussed the progress of projects including the Norochcholai Coal Power Project, the Hambantota Port Development and the Mattala International Airport.

International issues

Sri Lanka has reacted angrily to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s appointment of an expert panel to advise him on human rights violations in the final stage of the island’s civil war. The UN panel announced on June 22 is headed by former Indonesian Attorney General Marzuki Darusman, with Ms Yasmin Sooka, a former member of South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission and Steven Ratner, an American law professor, as members. According to a UN spokesperson the advisory panel’s mandate was limited to advising the secretary general and it was “not a fact-finding or investigative body.”

President Rajapaksa rejected the UN move, and the External affairs minister G.L. Peiris called it “an unnecessary interference” and said the government should be given “a free space to make its own findings.” The government has also said it would not issue visa for the UN panel members to visit Sri Lanka. China, Japan, India and Russia had been generally supportive of Sri Lanka government move to investigate the human rights aberrations on its own while the West, particularly the EU and the United States had been for an international panel.

Although the issue has whipped up national sentiments among the people, both General Sarath Fonseka, army commander during the war who is under arrest now, and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s US based activist and a member of the Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam Rudrakumaran have offered to co-operate with the UN panel. This is likely to further embarrass the Sri Lanka government who see an international conspiracy to demean the country’s achievement in these moves.

As though to confirm this conjecture, the EU also announced on June 22 that it would extend GSP+ tariff concessions to Sri Lanka after August 15 for “a limited additional period, subject to a clear and written commitment” to undertake 15 specific actions it considered as related to human rights within a six-month period from July.

The 15 areas for action included implementation of the Sri Lankan constitution’s 17th Amendment, the repeal of emergency regulations, co-operation with UN human rights bodies, release of a list of detained LTTE combatants and other suspects, and an end to harassment of journalists.
Prof GL Peiris, External Affairs Minister, rejecting the conditions said the government would not “surrender decision making powers, very sensitive and crucial matters to any foreign government.”

This does not augur well for Sri Lankan exports, particularly ready made garments which are heavily dependent upon EU markets. In the coming months we can expect Sri Lanka government to scale down its rhetoric and take some action repair its international relations.

National budget

Sri Lanka budget for the current year, already delayed by seven months, aims to reduce the budget deficit to 8% as against last year’s 9.9% deficit. This would represent the biggest reduction in deficit in recent times. With a view to spur growth targeted at 7% this year the government halved the import tax on cars and cut levies on electronics goods in the run up to the budget. The government hopes to increase tax revenue to at least 17 percent of GDP over the medium term, from 14.5 percent in 2009.

However, its meagre increase in wages for government servants and levy of additional taxes on food articles are likely to stir up public protests.

Sri Lanka’s budget plans are apparently in conformity with the International Monetary Fund’s conditional loan to replenish Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves. Under the IMF’s $2.5 billion loan programme, during the month the fund approved the release of fifth tranche of $ 408 million. This would indicate the IMF is satisfied with the government’s measures to tighten fiscal discipline.

Political moves

The government appears to have taken some action to use Kumaran Pathmanathan known better as KP, former international representative of the Tamil Tigers held in captivity, to build better relations with pro-LTTE Diaspora. In a carefully orchestrated move it allowed KP to visit North with a Diaspora delegation ostensibly to consider some rehabilitation project. In the coming months its political impact could be far reaching.
June 30, 2010
South Asia Security Trends Vol 4 No 6
Courtesy: www.security-risks.com

Sri Lanka: Focus on economic development and foreign relations

Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa has sworn in a new set of 76 ministers – 37 of cabinet rank and 39 deputy ministers – as against the jumbo ministry of 106 ministers in the earlier government. A few more ministerial appointments are likely in President’s bid to stitch a patchwork quilt to meet the interest of sundry coalition partners.

With 144-memeber strength in the house of 225, the President has gone about his government formation from a position of power.

The changes indicate the President’s current priorities – economic development and foreign policy as against the only earlier earlier – winning the war and eliminating the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). And the two priorities are inextricably interwoven particularly after the unhappy consequences of inter-national allegations of aberrations of governance that has eroded Sri Lanka’s good will.

Evidently, the President is fully conscious that economic development is imperative to put the country back on rail after it was drained of its resources and energies both during the uncertain peace impasse and the wasteful war during the last three years. There is a huge backlog of paying for the war – the public debt incurred for the war, reconstruction of infrastructure damaged due to the war and investments to kick start normal life in Northern Province.

There is also secondary fall out of war – inflationary economy, unemployment due to dislocation in hospitality and tourism services, and the negative impact of withdrawal of GSP+ tariff concessions on exports to the European Union countries. Tertiary fall out includes conforming to conditionality of international creditors which insist on lean government and curbs on non budgetary expenditure.
So it is not surprising the President chose his brother Basil Rajapakse as the minister for economic development. He served as the President’s wartime organisational hatchet man and key member of the troika that structured the victory over the LTTE.

This is going to be a key ministry as it will be involved in planning and apportioning large resources to various projects. Translated in simple political terms the ministry will wield a lot of power. Evidently, the President is again putting his trust in his brother to show visible results in the economic front just as he had done in support of operations during the war.

The Rajapaksa family hold has been further firmed in with the swearing in of President’s elder brother Chamal Rajapaksa as the speaker. Earlier he was in a less visible appointment as minister for ports. With the President’s eldest son Namal Rajapaksa also becoming a member of the House, the third generation of the family has now been anointed into corridors of power.

Foreign ministry was Sri Lanka’s weakest link in the crucial period of war. Sri Lankan diplomacy, or lack of it, cost the country dearly. When it entered the peace process in 2002 it commanded wide respect and managed to muster support of nearly 50 nations and international organisations that were ready to underwrite the financial burden of bringing peace.

However, during the war Rohitha Bogollogama as the foreign minister could not prevent the erosion of goodwill and weather international criticism that had snowballed against Sri Lanka on issues of governance and human rights. This has hamstrung Sri Lanka’s foreign policy in a number of ways. Thus the newly appointed external affairs minister (as the foreign minister has now been rechristened) Professor GL Peiris will be starting his new job with the burden of the backlog of his predecessor.

The suave and articulate professor with impeccable academic credentials brings in the much needed intellectual input lacking earlier in the foreign ministry. As minister for international trade in the earlier government, Peiris had a good equation with India, although the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) he had tried to promote between the two countries never came through due to internal opposition. Similarly his efforts to stave off the EU’s decision to withdraw GSP+ trade concessions, though creditable, could not achieve positive results.

Given this background, his role as external affairs minister is going to be tricky. There a few external issues he would be facing. He has to work out a face saving method to get out of the mess that has been created in handling the human rights issues with the West and UN agencies. Secondly, if he can succeed in the first task, his second task will be of harmonising external affairs and international trade policies to Sri Lanka’s advantage. This would aim at restoring the economic and trade support links with the West. However, this is going to be a tough job in the prevailing climate of paranoia and suspicion of the West.

The affable Professor Peiris’ ability to steer the country away from present course and initiate a course correction to foreign policy is going to be critical for Sri Lanka’s foreign relations. Professor Peiris would need President’s policy directions in this regard; whether he can persuade the President to do so is the moot point. Unless such an initiative is taken, mere change in language and rhetoric may not help to smoothen the ruffled feathers of some the influential friends of Sri Lanka. The country needs their financial assistance and vast markets to get the economy in order.

The President assisted by his two brothers had handled Sri Lanka-India relations during the earlier government. And the war against the LTTE became central to the relations and the core issue of devolution of powers to Tamils was put in cold storage. India went along with the President’s scheme of things as it removed the LTTE as its militant methods were blocking the evolution of a peaceful resolution of the ethnic issue.

However, with the LTTE no more, India is expected to raise the devolution issue once again. As the 2011 Tamil Nadu assembly election nears, New Delhi will have no choice but to demand action rather than mere rhetoric. Geography has destined India and Sri Lanka into a closely knit strategic environment. The increasing Chinese foot print and influence in Sri Lanka is undoubtedly a matter of concern for India. So both the countries have no other option but to address these concerns. With economic development becoming a core issue for Sri Lanka, Indian help and economic assistance is essential now more than ever before.

So Sri Lanka will have to find a winning equation in handling these three inter-related issues with India. So even if the President continues to handle relations with India, he would need the hands on involvement of both Basil and Peiris in giving form to it. Will be Peiris be allowed to play an increasing role as external affairs minister in handling India? We will have to wait and see as the relations between the two countries move into domains that had never been fully explored before.

Sri Lanka: News in the Making

Time for national reconciliation, Obama tells Rajapaksa
"I urge you to seize this opportunity to provide the leadership that will allow all Sri Lankans to come together and meet their aspirations to live in a country that is rooted in tolerance, respect for human rights, accountability, the rule of law, and freedom of the press- all elements essential for national reconciliation."...
http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/srilanka/Time-for-national-reconciliation/Article1-505688.aspx

EU to suspend Sri Lanka trading privileges over rights: officials
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Sri Lanka: Emerging Trends after the Presidential Election

Elections always leave their footprints to indicate emerging political and social trends of nations. The just concluded presidential election in Sri Lanka is no exception to this.

The election has proved the limitations of poll forecasts. Even where these are done by unbiased agencies, the impact of ‘swing factor’ in voting preferences affects the accuracy of forecasts. President Mahinda Rajapaksa had always remained the favourite at least among non-Tamil voters. As expected, he swept through some of the traditional opposition strongholds with high margins; this would indicate his lead was beyond the impact of any swing factor. Otherwise he would not have captured 17 of the 22 electoral districts.

The popular vote for the President is perhaps in recognition of his leadership role in ending the 26-year old Tamil insurgency. Probably for the same reason 40.2 per cent of the voters (4,173,185) preferred General Sarath Fonseka, a political novice. It would be reasonable to place relative popularity of the two candidates on this count at 6:4 in favour of Rajapaksa.

During the six months of peace after the war ended, President Rajapaksa could not clean up his administration and improve governance which came under severe criticism during the war. Presumably, the voting public were ready to overlook these aberrations and vote for another term of Rajapaksa’s rule because the General, supported by a jerry-built coalition, could not win their confidence in his political avatar.

If we go merely by numbers, General Fonseka supported by both the UNP and the JVP, secured less votes than the UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe when he contested the last presidential poll without the JVP support. But if we go by the dismal performance of the opposition parties and strong showing of the ruling UPFA in the provincial council elections held before the presidential poll, for a beginner the General’s performance was commendable. Thanks to him, both the opposition parties also probably managed to save their face by putting him up as a common opposition candidate. Otherwise, either of the parties might not have matched General Fonseka’s score.

However, in the north and east where the Tamils are in substantial numbers, votes polled were in favour of General Fonseka. Similarly electorates like Nuwara Eliya, where plantation Tamils are in large numbers, preferred General Fonseka. The General’s Tamil votes were probably more in appreciation of his recognition of Tamil grievances than any other issue.

The runaway victory of Rajapaksa shows the ruling coalition as of now could win a majority in the parliamentary poll. So if Tamils really want to improve the situation they will have to carefully plan their strategy in supporting either of the coalitions. It is going to be a hard choice between pragmatism and emotions.
In the Tamil dominant Northern Provinces barely 20 percent of the eligible voters polled. The displacement of population due to the war, fear of revenge killings, and Tamil apathy to the election in which two architects of the Eelam War were fighting each other, probably reduced the voter turnout. In future elections in the north, we might not see more than 30 per cent voting unless the voters’ lists are updated taking into consideration internal and external migration of Tamil population.

The election in the north and east has shown the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which supported Fonseka, continues to retain its influence over loyal section of Tamils voters. On the other hand Rajapaksa’s votes, particularly in the north, probably represent the limited influence of two Tamil parties – Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP) and the Peoples Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) that had supported him. Similarly, the influence of Tamil Makkal Vidutahali Pulikal (TMVP) led by Pillaiyan in the east could be ephemeral during the parliamentary poll.

The election has exposed the limited reach of SLFP and the UNP among Tamils. They will have to work hard to make inroads into Tamil strongholds in the north. It is doubtful whether either party would gain any advantage by migration of Tamil parties’ leaders to the party ranks. So we can expect the Tamil parties to continue their piggy back ride on them in the parliamentary poll also.

The TNA will face a big challenge in handling the pulls and pressures of parliamentary poll alliances. It has hardly any time to consolidate its position at the grass roots. It will also face more dissent in making hard choices. The marriage of convenience between the UNP and the JVP for the presidential election would be under serious threat as the parliamentary poll nears. There are more chances of it coming undone. This is going to make the options of TNA even more difficult.

Muslim votes continue to be divided between the two main political coalitions. Probably the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) support was useful in helping Fonseka coming on top in the east. Whether it could do so when the opposition is not united in the parliamentary poll remains an open question.

The election has demonstrated the Sinhala- Tamil divide as a hardy perennial in Sri Lanka politics. This cannot be wished away by homilies. With the parliamentary poll around the corner, President Rajapaksa will have to create a sense of trust and security among Tamil population by positive action, particularly as he has been elected by massive Sinhala votes. Presumably this is what prompted the President immediately after the election to talk about his intention to meet Tamil aspirations (including constitutional amendment).

However, four aspects of government conduct during and after the election are disturbing. These are: the personalisation of politics, witch hunting within the government including army, muzzling of free press and disregard for electoral rules of conduct.

It was personalised politics that induced the ‘psychological warfare’ against General Fonseka and key opposition leaders like Mangala Samaraweera. It started with hundreds of armed soldiers and policemen surrounding the hotel in which the General and his family, along with some political leaders were staying. The ‘siege’ for nearly the whole day was show strength to buttress claims of Fonseka plotting a coup or to assassinate President Rajapaksa. It had its impact with the General in turn talking of a government plot to kill him.

It did not end there. The humiliation of the General who led the army to victory six months back continued with a raid on his office and 15 retired army men of his staff were arrested for alleged conspiracy to assassinate President Rajapaksa and his family. The high drama is sure to have sent a clear warning to the opposition leaders not to take those in power lightly. This unhealthy trend could continue during the run up to the parliamentary poll.

There had been strong allegations of interference of ministers and government officials in the poll process. There had also been a number of violations of Election Commissioner’s orders including armed violence, intimidation and misuse of government media during the campaign period. In one such instance Dr. Jayalath Jayawardena MP belonging to the UNP has accused the supporters of Deputy Civil Aviation Minister Sarath Gunaratne of trying to chase him and other UNP members away from the counting centre to create the “necessary environment to rig” the Presidential poll.

After the election, the government has systematically tried to single out those considered as opposition supporters and take action against them. It has carried out the biggest ever purge in the military sacking those considered a ‘direct threat to national security.’ According to media reports 14 military officers including five Major Generals have been issued letters of compulsory retirement. This witch hunt sets a political precedent that could create schism within the armed forces affecting its efficiency and morale in the long term.

Media that had supported the General are also facing the flak. The editor of Lanka, a pro-JVP paper was arrested. The visa of a Swiss reporter, who asked a slightly embarrassing question at a press conference, was withdrawn till the President rescinded the order. The office of the website Lanka e news was sealed to prevent airing of critical comments. These are only a few of such incidents of threat to the media.

As expected, these actions have drawn adverse international attention. Both the U.S. and the European Union have urged the Sri Lankan authorities to investigate reports of "irregularities" during the country’s recent election and ensure the safety of the defeated opponent. Leaders of opposition and civil society have also expressed their serious concerns.

But in the past the government has shown little concern or sincerity in handling complaints of governance and lawless conduct. The ruling coalition and the government have to change their style and create a peaceful environment for conducting the parliamentary poll by their actions. Unless they do this, the credibility of the poll and its conduct could become suspect.

President’s likely actions

The President has to walk the talk to show his readiness to act on three major issues: meeting Tamil aspirations, cleaning up the image of his government, and attend to urgent demands of post war economy. The process of wooing Tamil is going to be tricky as it has to be done without antagonising Sinhala ‘vote banks.’ We can expect the President to increasingly allow free movement to the north, speed up visible development projects and rehabilitation effort in the war ravaged villages, and announce substantive reduction in high security zones occupied by troops. He is also likely to try and get the TNA leaders under his wing, taking advantage of existing differences among them.

After showing the opposition that he was in no mood to ‘forgive and forget,' his political priority would be to gain absolute majority for the UPFA in parliament. However, it is not going to be an easy task as he has to clean up the image of his government. That would require substantive improvement in rule of law, withdrawal of the state of emergency and quick disposal of cases of the LTTE prisoners and suspects held in custody. We can expect him to take a series of measures on these aspects but their outcome could get corroded due to the current atmosphere of confrontation.

Even after six months since war ended, Sri Lanka is yet to gain its full benefit. The $40-billion economy has to be put on its feet. Foreign investments in government securities to the tune of about $ 1.6 billion have been made. Both India and China are involved in upgrading infrastructure. In spite of this, Sri Lanka has a few problems.

High food prices and swelling numbers of unemployed could turn the population restive. The President cannot dish out liberal largesse to the people as he is required to introduce cost cutting measures as agreed upon when the International Monetary Fun granted a loan of $2.6 billion. With their own problems of economic management, both the EU and the U.S. might not be forthcoming to bale out the President, particularly as they have been unhappy with his style of governance and cavalier attitude to their concerns. In such a situation, we can expect the President to lean on both India and China for substantive increase in economic assistance.
Courtesy: www.southasiaanalysis.org
URL http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cnotes6%5Cnote568.html