[This article published in the www.southasiaanalysis.org on May 19, 2009 could not be published earlier for technical reasons. Though some of the comments have been overtaken by developments subsequently, still few others are valid still.]
With the death of V Prabhkakaran curtains came down on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) as a viable military entity in the Eelam War IV on Sunday May 17, 2009. He had little chance of survival as troops from three divisions of Sri Lanka Security Forces swept through Prabhakaran’s last hideout in the strip of barely a few hundred metres, north of Mullaitivu. Along with him his trusted lieutenants Pottu Amman, the intelligence chief and veteran leader Soosai who had survived earlier war were also reported killed.
As expected speculation is rife about the way he died - whether he committed suicide biting the cyanide capsule, or grievously injured in operation or wilfully massacred by the security forces. These speculations are of little consequence as he is no more to lead the Tamil Tigers once again. President Rajapaksa confirmed his death in a telephone call to the Indian Foreign Minsiter Pranab Mukherjee yesterday. One can expect the Sri Lanka government to scotch the rumours when they produce the evidence of his death requested by India to close the case against Prabhakaran and Pottu Amman two of the prime-accused in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.
Understandably, the LTTE and its acolytes are in a state of denial of their thalaivar’s death. The Sri Lanka Tamil expatriates who had put their faith in Prabhakaran’s immortality and invincibility are in a state of shock. They had been expecting Prabhakaran to produce a miracle of sorts to turn the tide of war in favour of the LTTE. However, when S Pathmanathan, head of LTTE’s international affairs issued a statement denying Prabhakaran’s death and accused of massacring Political chief Nadesan and Pulidevan, it sent the security forces in a tizzy. President Rajapaksa pointedly omitted reference to finding Prabhakaran’s body in his long speech to parliament. And the security forces were desperately looking for the body! After all the high drama and a lot contradictory stories, around noon today security forces have confirmed Prabhakaran’s body has been found in the Nandikadal lagoon. His body was shown in the state TV with skull injuries. That should silence at least those who want the correct information on his death.
The cream of the LTTE leadership including the occupants of two rows behind the leader’s throne, have been wiped out in the last two days of the three-year old war. Among the list of identified bodies among the 200 plus recovered in the Sunday operations include apart from Prabhakaran, his son Charles Anthony, Soosai, Pottu Amman - Intelligence Wing Leader, Bhanu - military leader, Jeyam - military leader, B. Nadesan - LTTE political head, S. Pulidevan - Head of LTTE's Peace Secretariat, Ramesh - special military leader, Ilango - police chief, Sudharman - aide to LTTE leader's son, Thomas - senior intelligence leader, Luxman - military leader, Sri Ram - senior sea tiger cadre, Iseiaravi - female military leader, Kapil Amman - deputy intelligence leader, Ajanthi - female training in charge, Wardha - mortar in charge, Pudiyawan - Secretary to Prabhakarn and Jenarthan - Special military leader.
A few questions come to mind when we read of Prabhakaran’s death.
Why Prabhakaran did not escape from the battle zone?
It is not easy to answer because it depends upon the moody leader’s mindset in the last stages of battle. There were a few opportunities even as battle in Puthukkudiyiruppu was being fought. Having some knowledge of the way he operates many of us believed that he would make a get away, go into hiding, and stage a comeback to pursue once again his dogged fight to carve out an independent Eelam. This would have required a Plan B in his operational plan. He may not have had such a Plan B to execute and died on the battlefield just he advised his cadres. While this sounds in keeping with the popular image of Prabhakaran as the relentless leader ready to sacrifice his life, it raises the question, was he so desperate to do so because he could not do otherwise due to army and naval blockade. Given Prabhakaran’s penchant for security it is difficult to believe he could not have sneaked out if he had wanted to do so. Perhaps not; only time will tell.
The security forces have claimed the three leaders Prabhakaran, Pottu Amman, and Soosai were killed when they ran into a Special Forces squad while driving out in an ambulance with protection. Why would they expose themselves to collective risk by travelling together in such a fashion?
Considering the high state of secrecy and security that is always there when Prabhakaran moves, it appears unbelievable in the face of it. But battle conditions impose strange compulsions. The LTTE is in disarray in its last hideout; leaders might have been injured and were being evacuated from the zone of active firing. The area of operation was terribly restricted and there might not have been enough vehicles to carry them separately. And on way they could have run into the security forces to meet their end. So only on the basis of transportation the news cannot be discounted.
Who will don the mantle of LTTE? Can it be revived?
If one sees the heights of strength from which the LTTE has fallen, it looks a near impossible task. Apart from eliminating the leadership the war has taken the lives of 15,000-20,000 LTTE cadres, and supporters. And a few hundred thousand people – young and old – who were kith and kin of the LTTE are orphaned now. Probably some remnants of cadres are scattered in pockets in the island and overseas.
There is no experienced and charismatic leader with proven record in the horizon to rally the scattered cadres to motivate them to fight once again and build the organisation with the same vigour as Prabhakaran, because leaders like him don’t come every day. The LTTE has a lot of assets overseas – most of them in benami (fake) ownership. Prbably Pathmanathan would be in the know of these assets. Whether he has the competency and desire to play the lead role using these assets to revive the LTTE is a moot point.
Death of Prabhakaran removes the LTTE from the leadership role accorded to it by the international community when it supported the Oslo Accord. Now there is a void in the power equation; can the dissonant voices of Tamil leaders unite to demand the essential rights of Tamils? But we have been hearing cacophony than united voices; so it is difficult to say so, though I wish I could.
With LTTE no more there as a roadblock, it is for Indian leadership to decide for how long it is going to keep Sri Lanka in low profile in its foreign policy framework.
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