[This assessment of Sri Lanka for the month of May 2009 written on May 31, 2009, published in the South Asia Security Trends Journal, June 2009 issue, gives an overall assessment of events in Sri Lanka and likely trends in the ensuing month. As the South Asia Security Trends holds the copyright it may not be reproduced in any form without their permission.]
The month of May 2009 will go down as the most momentous in Sri Lanka’s history. Sri Lanka security forces fighting the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) insurgents for nearly three decades wiped out the entire LTTE leadership including its elusive leader Prabhakaran in the Eeelam War IV going on since April 2006. With the elimination of the first and second line leadership of the LTTE by May 19, 2009, the insurgent group is in mortal danger of dying without revival, unless a suitable leader is found quickly.
As it happens when important leaders die under unclear circumstances, there was some initial controversy over the death of Prabhakaran even after finding his deadbody. However, it is now certain that he along with the entire 18-member leadership were killed in operations on night May 17/18. Selvarasa Pathamanathan, LTTE’s international representative, in an interview to the BBC acknowledged the deaths a week later and announced that the body would now carry on the fight for dead leader’s ideals peacefully. However, intelligence wing of the LTTE and the pro-LTTE leaders in Tamil Nadu and among the Diaspora appear continued to be in a state of denial of the deaths. This would indicate a possible succession battle is in the offing within the LTTE to decide on the future course of action of the body as well as its leadership.
The emergence of a single leader who can command the loyalty of supporters overseas as well the scattered LTTE cadres might be difficult process and a collective leadership might be attempted. This is likely to weaken the effectiveness of the insurgent group particularly when Karuna, the breakaway LTTE leader of Batticaloa, now an MP and a minister, appears to be attracting the leaderless flock of LTTE in the island to surrender and join him.
Sri Lanka’s war against Tamil separatists had been going on in the island since 1983. However, in the past in the absence of a strong national leadership determined to achieve its goals and inept or incompetent higher direction of war, the security forces never won a decisive victory against the LTTE. But the unflinching support President Mahinda Rajapaksa had provided to the armed forces enabled it to achieve total military victory. He also geared up all national policies – development, economy, foreign policy, infrastructure - towards achieving this goal. But the security forces’ achievement has been tarnished by the death of nearly 20,000 of the 200,000 civilians trapped in the tiny strip of war zone with the LTTE in their midst in the Mullaitivu coast in the last phase of offensive from April onwards.
President Rajapaksa managed to ward off a Western effort to condemn Sri Lanka in the UN Human Rights Council for its gross humanitarian violations during the war, when it met in Geneva on April 26. On the contrary, he managed with the help of India, China, Pakistan, Russia, Cuba and other countries, to get the majority votes in the UNHRC to pass Sri Lanka’s resolution congratulating the country for defeating terrorism. Emboldened by this success, Sri Lanka is likely to harden its stand on allowing international watchdogs to probe its human rights record.
However, it could work against Sri Lanka’s interests as human rights lobbies in the European Union and the US are strongly lobbying for strong action including economic sanctions against the country. This could affect the renewal of the EU’s duty free GSP plus tariff concessions extended to Sri Lanka (already on one year extension), as well as the approval of IMF loan of $1.9 billion dollars.
As China, Iran, and Libya are extending economic aid to counter the western influence, in order appease the Sinhala chauvinist lobbies, Rajapaksa might delya the consideration of Tissa Vitharana’s all-party committee recommendations on devolution of powers indefinitely. He is likely to use implementation of the 13th Amendment of the Consitution in parts as a carrot to appease India and the western lobby in the meanwhile. With the strong support of the Sinhala public behind the President after his military success, influence of both India and the West is likely to waken further in influencing Sri Lanka policies. They will have to evolve effective political and economic strategies to counter this. India's course of action on this count might depend upon the emergence of clarity in the US-China economic convergence taking place now and its impact on South Asia.
India-Sri Lanka relations
In Tamil Nadu almost all political parties participating in the parliamentary elections had focused on the plight of Sri Lanka Tamils in the war zone to must popular votes for their parties. All the Dravidian parties sacrificing commonsense and political morality overnight became supporters of the demand for an independent Tamil Eelam much to the consternation of Sri Lanka. It boosted the morale of Sri Lankan Tamils agitating worldwide for action to stop the war, particularly in UK, France, Germany, Norway, the US and Canada.
The political pronouncements in Tamil Nadu also gave false hopes of survival to Prabhakaran and the LTTE leadership in their last days. However, the large scale success of the ruling Congress party led coalition in the election showed that the Indian electorate, particularly in Taml Nadu was not prepared to be swayed by either the call of support for Tamil Eelam or the LTTE, despite their sympathy for the civilians in the war zone. The election results are likely to downscale the importance of the Sri Lanka Tamil issue in India’s foreign policy calculus when the new government settles down in the coming months.
Security Forces plans after Prabhakaran’s death
President Rajapaksa has rewarded the three security forces chiefs with higher ranks. Thus army commander will now be a General, while the Air Force and Navy chiefs become Air Chief Marshal and Admiral respectively. There had been widespread public adulation of armed forces for their military success. In some places the celebrations projected this as a victory of Sinhalas over Tamils indicating the strengthening of Sinhala chauvinism.
A major international irritant in Sri Lanka war had been the handling of 289,915 internally displaced people from the north now housed in 42 camps in Jaffna, Mannar, Vavuniya and Tincomalee including 2122 patients undergoing treatment in Trincomalee.
The camps run under the control of the army have been criticized for severe restrictions imposed upon the inmates as well as poor living conditions and shortage of basic essentials including food, water and living space. Already the army claims 9000 LTTE cadres among the inmates have surrendered. They are being segregated and sent to separate rehabilitation camps. There had been widespread international demand for handing over the camps to NGO control and providing free access to the public. Ideally these people should be relocated back in their villages. The government after a great deal of international pressure, have now agreed to do so in six months. But from the concept of development plans being implemented there it appears the government proposes create clusters of villages for them to keep them under the watch of the armed forces.
The Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka revealed in a TV interview that the strength of the army would be increased by 50 per cent to 300,000 to ensure the LTTE does not stage a come back anywhere. He said. "We have won the war, but we have not abandoned our campaign to defeat the Eelam Project." The army is probably planning to establish permanent garrisons in key centres in the north to carry out counterinsurgency operations as well as well ensure control over civilian population. This is likely to further increase the suspicion of Tamils already feeling insecure over the intention of the government and dely hte process of ethnic reconciliation.
The planned large scale expansion of the army is a disturbing aspect as it has now become a power centre that could affect the process of national policy making. India had contributed to strengthening it in the past. However, the increasing influence of China and to a certain extent Pakistan, which supplied arms and equipment during the war, within the armed forces is a possibility and it might come at the cost of India.
Strategically, Sri Lanka is likely to become an important cockpit of global contention between India, China and the US in the coming years. India would do well to keep Sri Lanka in its overall strategic picture particularly in issues relating to ocean defence. Internally, the leaderless LTTE rank and file flowing out of Sri Lanka as refugees is likely to seek safe havens in Indian coastal states. They hold the potential to cause mischief once the LTTE recoups. Vigorous action should be taken by central agencies to screen new arrivals to weed out likely LTTE cadres. It would be best to encourage repatriation of refugees once the elections are held in the northern province and a local government is established there.
Copyright:www.security-risks.com
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