Friday, February 15, 2008

Crisis over LTTE issue result of a Lankan ploy

By M.C. Rajan in Chennai 7-2-08 http://www.mailtoday.in/epapermain.aspx

Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi called on Sonia Gandhi on Wednesday to diffuse a political crisis that has been getting worse by the day.
Last Saturday, finance minister P. Chidambaram had criticised the state government, prompting the chief minister the next day to dare the Centre to sack him. On Monday, the Intelligence Bureau director PC Haldar, was rushed in to appease the CM.

The crisis that has now sucked in the country’s top politicians was borne of an Opposition campaign that LTTE has become very active in Tamil Nadu. The campaign picked up momentum with rumours spreading all over south India that Prabhakaran and his wife Mathivathani had reached the Indian shores.
Mathivathani was supposed to have landed at the Mandapam refugee camp, fleeing the Sri Lankan air force’s incessant bombardment of Tamil areas in north Lanka. Believe it or not, the “first lady of Eelam” had even enquired after the well being of her subjects! Her “mission” apparently was to identify a hospital for her wounded husband. Next, it was the turn of the “supreme leader of Eelam” to turn up to convalesce at a TN hospital, either in Coimbatore or coastal Thoothukudi.
After a fortnight of such rumours, the Congress walked out of the TN Assembly. But interestingly, neither the Centre nor any other agency has any confirmation of the alleged heightened LTTE activities in TN.

Experts feel this is primarily the handiwork of Sri Lankan intelligence. “It is almost impossible,” says Col Hariharan, laughing off reports of Prabhakaran crossing over to Tamil Nadu. “It could well be the mischief of Sri Lankan intelligence agencies. They are the ones who will benefit by spreading such rumours,” he argues.
Hariharan is one of the most credible military analysts in the country and was the head of Military Intelligence for the Indian Peace Keeping Mission headquartered in Jaffna. He had three MI units working for him.


He insists that the Tiger chief could not have fled his jungle hideout. “I know the LTTE. I had interacted with the Tiger leadership. I have seen Prabhakaran at close quarters. This just can’t be true,” he insists.

Colombo, Hariharan points out, has much to gain from creating the impression that Prabhakaran is on the run. “Creating confusion in the enemy ranks can always help in weakening the adversary.”

He rules out the involvement of Indian intelligence, though the IB has been issuing warnings of LTTE plots in Chennai. “The rumours are intended to provide a psychological advantage to the battle-fatigued Lankan forces. Further, it is also aimed at creating an element of doubt about the invincibility of the LTTE chief,” he analyses.

Hariharan points out that there is just one exit route for Prabhakaran: the Naachi Kuda area in north Sri Lanka. This is yet to come under the effective control of the Lankan Navy, but it is highly risky and fraught with dangerous consequences.
The Colonel is not ready to buy the theory that Prabhakaran was critically wounded. “It is only wishful thinking at best. According to my sources and information coming from the island, Prabhakaran has not suffered any major injury,” he maintains.

The LTTE has been cornered in the jungles of Vanni and is fighting with their back to the wall. Still, it seems highly unlikely that the guerrilla leader could have crossed over to India. Hariharan feels that even if Prabhakaran is wounded, it is much easier to take a doctor from Tamil Nadu or elsewhere to the Tiger territory for treatment.
Even before the excitement created by these rumours of Prabhakaran’s sighting could die down, the police claimed to have busted a LTTE conspiracy to assassinate V. Perumal, an anti-Tiger Lankan leader. He was scheduled to attend a marriage in the city. But it wasn’t explained why the LTTE should kill an inconsequential politician.
Intelligence officials were aghast at the stories about the movement of the LTTE leader and his wife. The rumours hit the state when Sri Lankan army chief Gen. Fonseka claiming that Prabhakaran was critically wounded in an air strike. With no denial coming up from the Tigers, he continued to maintain his theory that the Tiger leader was either bedridden or had fled.

Police combed the entire coastline. Nothing came out of these operations. But nothing could be left to chance as Karunanidhi remains embattled ever since he wrote an elegy for slain LTTE leader Thamilchelvan.

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