Col R
Hariharan
[This
background paper was used for a TV discussion by Col Hariharan on February 22,
2013. It was based on open source information]
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Two improvised explosive devices (IED) kept in tiffin boxes strapped to
bicycles had exploded minutes apart, in Dilsukh Nagar, a congested
Hyderabad suburb, around 7 pm on February 22. So far 17 people are reported to
have died. Over 100 people were injured – some of them seriously – in the
explosions. The area, which was also the scene of an earlier terrorist strike, has
two cinema theatres. The explosions occurred 200 yards from a popular Sai Baba
temple which is crowded located in the area where devotees throng on Thursdays.
Forensic
evidence from the site is being collected. NIA and NSG teams have reached Hyderabad
and to assist local police in investigations. Delhi and Maharashtra police are
also in close touch with Andhra Pradesh police to help their investigations
with their own input. In fact
Maharashtra police is sending a seven-member team to Hyderabad. Media reports
indicate Ammonium nitrate, freely available for agricultural use, was used in
the IEDs triggered by timers. The media cited a Delhi Police interrogation
report of November 2011 in which Maqbool, an IM suspect had revealed that he
and Imran had reconnoitred Dilsukhnagar and Begum Bazaar localities of
Hyderabad on the instructions of IM founder Riyaz Bhatkal. While media has played
up this angle, police appear to be not so sure of IM involvement in the explosions.
At the government level there were contradictory
statements from different functionaries in the same department as well as at
the Centre and State. Both the political class and the Police (perhaps prodded
by them) have been reactive to the barrage of media conjectures claims which
could prejudice objective analysis.
COMMENTS
Intelligence failure
Everyone talks of intelligence failure in this
incident because that is the easiest way of explaining all other shortcomings.
Terrorists, unlike other kinds of extremists, operate in extremely secretive
ways. Many times the operatives may not know the whole scheme of things in
carrying out a particular strike. They also plan lone wolf operations involving
only one person. So the question of predicting terror strikes with 100 percent accuracy
is near impossible. Ideally there should be a central structure to correlate all
inputs and analyse them to evolve to identify preventive and offensive
strategies in vulnerable areas and on likely targets. In the current terrorist strike, it is too
early to objectively assess as all investigative reports will have to be
studied.
Strengths and weaknesses
The level of cooperation between the Centre and
states both vertically and laterally is better than before. Time delay in the
sharing process can be reduced by using networked information sharing, but
information instead of being routine can be addressed to specific persons
earmarked in the state for counter-terrorism. In this case the available
information was apparently treated in a routine manner. However, it must be
stressed ultimately it is the state authorities’ responsibility to take a call
on acting upon the information. So there is no point in blaming AP Police for
not taking adequate follow up action because we do not know what action was
taken. It would appear the police were either looking for corroboration of the
information about IM suspect recceing the target area last year, or decided
take limited action when they failed to validate the information. This would
show lacunae in intelligence gathering and decision making at the state level.
This should be rectified. But this is an ongoing process and there is no end to
it.
The other weakness is political; in every incident
both opposition and ruling parties try to score brownie points. There is a
requirement for mature and informed discussion between parties in normal times
for evolving broad based counter terrorism strategies. Otherwise with
opposition parties ruling in some states, there will always be suspicion that
the Centre is trying to impinge upon their powers. This suspicion is one of the
reasons the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) proposed by Mr P
Chidambaram has not seen the light of the day. This is a political issue that
requires attention.
Lastly, both Centre and states have to resolve
their problems in credibly communicating to the public. Had the Prime Minister
spoken on the subject before the Home Minister dished out a pedestrian
statement in parliament, it could have sent a message that the government was taking
the matter seriously. The problems at the state level were similar but appeared
to have been managed better as the situation developed.
Suggestions for further action
Media’s role: With the spread of
news at the speed of light, it is natural TV channels compete in nit picking.
However this confers on them greater responsibility to ensure larger interests
of the nation are not trifled with. There is an apparent refinement in their
process since 26/11 with different anchors specialising in a subject. This is
welcome. However, even in analysing current topics, much time is wasted in
discussions on still bringing the issue back to hardy perennials – Islamic vs
Hindu “terrorism,” historical grievances of communities and prejudices of
ideology, dogma and creed. Talk show anchors should aim at choosing the right
guys relevant to the issue rather than allowing religious/caste constituencies
and political pundits taking control of every issue. Ultimately such discussions should inform the
public objectively rather than ending up in increased decibel levels.
Public confidence: The
objective of terrorism is to destabilize the state by carrying out daring acts
of huge magnitude affecting the ordinary people. Every terrorist act
succeeds in chipping away public confidence in the government and themselves
little by little. To counteract this the government must carry out a thorough
analysis of the whole incident and the actions taken, identify failures and
acts of negligence and take follow up action to rectify them. After a period
these details should be summarised and make them available to the public in a
transparent way. This is our biggest weakness; so we do not believe our
government is taking the right action because we do not know whether they did.
This is what has happened in Hyderabad just as it happened in other places
where terrorists struck. So to an extent terrorists have already succeeded; can
we expect the government to take action?
(Col. R Hariharan,
a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, is associated with
the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China
Studies. E- mail:colhari@yahoo.com Blog: www.colhariharan.org)
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