Friday, February 10, 2012

Sri Lanka Perspectives: January 2012

Col  R Hariharan

Highlights

President Mahinda Rajapaksa faced the uncomfortable consequences of his reported promise to the visiting India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) SM Krishna to enforce the 13th Amendment Plus on empowering provincial councils. In his subsequent interactions Rajapaksa denied it and said he would take action only after the issue is discussed by all political parties.  As the opposition Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) said it was clear the President was trying to buy time rather than decisive action on this issue. If he really awaited opposition parties’ participation in the parliamentary select committee (PSC) constituted for this purpose the issue may never be resolved in the near future.  

Adding to the President’s frustration was the ban on Economic woes of the country are gathering momentum in response to global economic downturn and the ban on import of Iranian oil imposed by the US and the European Union. Sri Lanka imports over 90% of its oil requirements from Iran and as the President said Sri Lanka has no option but to talk to the US to find a way out.

To add to Sri Lanka’s stress is the American Secretary of State Ms Hilary Clinton’s letter to inform Sri Lanka of the US has decision to go ahead with the resolution against Sri Lanka at the next sitting of the UN Human Rights Council which is scheduled to start on 27 February 2012 on allegations of Sri Lanka’s  human rights abuses and war crimes during the Eelam War. She has also invited the EAM Prof GL Peiris to visit Washington to discuss Sri Lanka’s plans on ethnic reconciliation process.

Politics of devolution

President Rajapaksa has denied that he ever told India he would go beyond the 13th Amendment to the Constitution as a solution to the ethnic problem. While answering a question at a meeting with media heads on January 30, the President clarified that on this national question he would consult other parties and take a decision. He said that he had referred the issue to Parliament and the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC). “But unfortunately, neither the United National Party (UNP) nor the JVP has nominated theirs,” he lamented.

The President’s clarification came after both the UNP and JVP parties asked the President to clarify his stand on his reported promise India to go beyond the 13th Amendment. Their statement came after visiting Indian EAM SM Krishna after meeting the President, had said, "I discussed this matter [13th Amendment] with His Excellency the President this morning. The President assured me that he stands by his commitment to pursuing the 13th Amendment plus approach." However, he clarified that he did not discuss a time frame for implementation. "The Government of Sri Lanka has on many occasions conveyed to us its commitment to move towards a political settlement based on the full implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution, and building on it, so as to achieve a meaningful devolution of powers,” he added.  

It is clear that the government is unlikely to go beyond the selective implementation of 13th Amendment without ceding police and land powers to provincial councils without parliamentary consent. Even with that the President is unlikely to go beyond his offer to create a senate that would enhance Tamil participation. And this was probably the package of 13th Amendment Plus which the Indian minister was talking about. Police and land powers had been the bone of contention between the government and Tamil parties which want full implementation as the minimum.

Economic logjam

Sri Lanka finds itself in economic logjam on two counts. These issues are likely to haunt Sri Lanka for some time to come as both are international in nature and defy easy solution.

Balance of payment:  first is a looming foreign exchange crisis after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) effectively suspended its US $ 2.6 billion bailout programme for Sri Lanka after the Central Bank started defending Sri Lankan rupee by selling $ 1560 million in four months to keep the exchange rate stable in the midst of severe export demand. 
According to Lanka Business Online the Central Bank “started to print money aggressively (sterilized intervention) to keep interest rates down.”   Such sterilized intervention triggers a vicious cycle of dollar sales and liquidity injections resulting in a rapid loss of forex reserves creating a balance of payment crisis the website said. The Central Bank was currently in talks with IMF on options to utilise two tranches of $ 800 million that was originally available to it

Looming Oil crisis: Sri Lanka is dependent upon Iran for 93% of its crude requirements. Thus Sri Lanka will be directly affected by the US and EU orchestrated ban imposed upon import of oil from Iran. It will have to find alternate sources of oil; already Saudi Arabia is reported to have declared its ability to supply any oil. Its only refinery at Sabugaskanda can only process Iranian crude. The President Rajapaksa commenting on the issue said: “Finally they [the US and EU] are not punishing Iran. They are punishing us, small countries.” A media report quoted the US embassy in Colombo which said the matter would be discussed when Luke Bronin, Deputy Assistant Secretary in the US Treasury arrives in Sri Lanka on February 2. Bronin is responsible for matters relating to Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes.

Human rights woes

Sri Lanka’s anxiety increased as it is now clear that the allegations of human rights violations and war crimes during the Eelam War IV would be coming up for discussion in the UN HRC meeting starting from February 27. It was not helped by Ms Hilary Clinton’s letter to Prof GL Peiris, Sri Lanka’s EAM informing him of the US decision to go ahead with a resolution against Sri Lanka at the UN HRC meeting. She said the decision was “to help guide our thought on future action.” 

She has also invited him to Washington in March to discuss his plans to “move ahead on reconciliation, accountability and provincial council elections in the Northern Province.” The timing of the letter, coming closely on the heels of Indian EAM’s visit where the issue of devolution came up would indicate an element of coordination between India and the US on Sri Lanka despite India’s reservations on its course of action.  ,

Miscellaneous

Trilingual initiative: President Mahinda Rajapaksa launched a tri-lingual initiative in Colombo on January 21. It aims at ensuring Sri Lankans – Sinhalese, Tamil and English. The initiative was launched in the presence of former Indian President A.P.J.Abdul Kalam. A 10-year plan for a Trilingual Sri Lanka was also launched on the occasion. Speaking at the official residence of the President, Kalam welcomed the initiative and outlined the characteristics that a noble nation possessed. Later, speaking on ‘Ignited minds of the youth as the greatest resource of the Nation,’ at a public gathering. Kalam urged the youth to rise above, aim high, and be unique.

Colombo container terminal ownership: China Merchants Holdings (International) Ltd became 85% shareholder in the consortium formed to build a new terminal at the Colombo Port when the other partner Aitken Spence PLC sold the 30% stake it held in the consortium - the Colombo International Container Terminals Limited. Sri Lanka Ports Authority hold the rest of the shares in the consortium.

Violence against visiting Sri Lankans: President Rajapaksa in a message to Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa has requested her to “Take care of our people who go there. Ministers, our relations etc.” He was commenting on the attack on Sri Lankan industrialist, Thirukumar Nadesan, who was attacked by a slogan shouting mob in Rameswaram where he had gone to worship with his wife Nirupama Rajapaksa, Deputy Minister and sister of President Rajapaksa. Police have arrested some people involved in the attack; however, local fishermen’s associations have condemned the attack.  

UN advisory group on peace keeping: One of the heroes of the Eelam War and currently the Deputy Permanent Representative of Sri Lanka to the UN, Major General Shavendra Silva, has been selected to represent the Asia Pacific Group in the special Advisory group on Peace Keeping Operations. This advisory body will address some of the crucial issues related to United Nations Peace Keeping. General Silva is considered a ‘war criminal’ by some Tamil Diaspora groups.

Wikileaks on extrajudicial killings: According to a Wikileak cable quoted in a Sri Lanka media report the US ambassador to Colombo Robert Blake wrote in February 2007 that ex-foreign minister Mangala Samaraweera had “confirmed that the Government uses a group called the ‘Lion Cubs’ to engage in these extrajudicial activities. It is widely rumored in Sri Lanka that Army Commander Fonseka, with the knowledge and approval of Defense Secretary Gothabaya Rajapaksa, has set up special cells within military intelligence to go after suspected LTTE cadres and sympathizers in Colombo, Jaffna and other places.”

India –Sri Lanka relations: Despite periodic hiccups India-Sri Lanka bilateral trade had surged by over 70 % while touching an all time high of $ 5 billion. Indian companies have invested over $ 100 million in the island. Indian High Commissioner to Colombo Ashok K Kantha, highlighted this during Republic Day celebrations held in the High Commission. 
Written on January 31, 2012
Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, Vol 6 No 1, January 2012
URL: www.security-risks.com

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