Sri Lanka Perspectives - May 2010

[This assessment written on May 31, 2010 exclusively for www.security-risks.com is reproduced here with their permission.]

Issues at stake

As Sri Lanka celebrated the first anniversary of its victorious war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s appears to have shifted his to refurbish Sri Lanka’s international image weathered due to allegations of human rights violations and war crimes committed during the Eelam War IV.

There is also the major problem of rehabilitation and reconstruction of the north. The Asian Development Bank has asked Sri Lanka to prune the size of its budget stressing the need for a sustainable budget deficit. The ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda has pointed out that .top priority now was to rebuild infrastructure in the ravaged north and east; and ensure economic stability reaches everyone in the country.

In 2009 Sri Lanka's fiscal deficit shot up to 9.7 percent of GDP well above the target of seven percent set by the International Monetary Fund when it released a $2.6 billion dollar bailout package in July 2009.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) has assessed that 76,568 of the displaced were still residing in temporary camps run by the government. On the other hand 214,227 people sent out of camps in the last few months have reached their home towns and villages across the northern, eastern and central provinces. And majority of them were without livelihood. In addition to this it estimated that 93,329 former inmates of the camps were residing with families that have hosted them.

President Rajapaksa has said he would complete the task of rehabilitation by end 2010. To resolve this colossal problem Sri Lanka needs all the help from the international community to recover from the ravages of war. So the President has little choice but to do mend fences with international community. His efforts to ward off international cricism so far had not convinced his detractors. Both the Human Rights Watch and the Amnesty International have raised their pitch with more evidence on government complicity in violating human rights and humanitarian issues.

On top of all this, the International Crisis Group (ICG) in its report on Sri Lanka issued during the month claimed that it possessed ‘credible evidence’ to show that both the LTTE and the security forces had committed war crimes. It called for an independent international war crimes probe. The ICG held top government and military leaders as potentially responsible for those crimes.

Not to be out done, domestic opposition has also taken the government to task on this issue. General Sarath Fonseka leader of the opposition Democratic National Alliance (DNA) in the parliament also focused on human rights violations during the war although he absolved the army of committing any war crimes. And the issue has also become a foil in the opposition United National Party (UNP) in its fight for survival.

These issues have already done some damage to Sri Lanka. The EU has already suspended import tariff concessions extended under the GSP+ scheme affecting the nation’s exports. Despite Sri Lanka’s strong objections, the UN is in the process of selecting the members of a panel to advise UN Secretary-General Ban ki-moon on the implementation of Sri Lanka’s commitments made on human rights accountability. Irritated by this, Foreign Minister GL Peiris on the eve of his meeting with the UN General Secretary had asked the UN to keep off Sri Lanka. He said: "...There is no justification legal or moral for this step (UN probe) to be taken at this time."
In a bid to take some wind out of the UN sail, President Rajapaksa appointed an eight-member ‘Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation’ Commission (LLRC) to report on the lessons to be learnt from the events in the period Feb 2002 to May 2009. The LLRC was also tasked to study attendant concerns and to recommend measures to ensure no recurrence of such a situation. However, in spite of lofty wordings the commission’s mandate is worded vaguely. In an interview the President has made it clear that if the LLRC points out war crimes he would look into them. So it was not surprising that the UN Secretary General had been lukewarm in his comments on the LLRC.

However, Sri Lanka can derive some consolation that India welcomed the appointment of the LLRC describing it as “an important first step.” The U.S. Secretary of State Ms Hillary Clinton has also welcomed the Sri Lankan initiative in appointing the LLRC. In her statement after meeting with Foreign Minister Peiris, she said the U.S. expected its “mandate will enable them to fully investigate serious allegations of violations and to make public recommendations that commission members and potential witnesses must enjoy adequate and effective protection” underscoring the real concerns about the working of the LLRC. However, she would not comment on the UN panel.

It is significant that the U.S. has lifted the travel advisory on Sri Lanka on the eve of the first anniversary of the end of the Eelam War. This would indicate that in the U.S. assessment LTTE threat does not exist within Sri Lanka anymore.

Indian moves

India and Sri Lanka appeared to have once again appear keen to push through the mutual trade pact - the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) which will bring in greater trade integration between the two countries. However, this could run into trouble in India as political parties in Tamil Nadu could link the issue to issues of resettlement of displaced people and greater devolution of powers to Tamils. At the same time in Sri Lanka there are sections of trade and politics which see the CEPA as a sign of Indian hegemony which have to be convinced to give the go ahead.

Ms Nirupama Rao, Secretary, Indian Ministry of External Affairs has once again drawn Sri Lanka’s attention to the need for speedy implementation of 13th amendment to Sri Lanka constitution that gave a level of provincial autonomy. This issue is likely to gain more momentum in the coming months as there are detractors within Sri Lanka’s ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) who are opposed to it. Moreover it could get entangled in the constitutional revision proposed on abolition of executive presidency and proportional representation electoral system.

LTTE and Tamil Diaspora affairs

The crackdown on LTTE and its supporters among Tamil Diaspora has continued both within and outside Sri Lanka. Police arrested an alleged key woman supporter of the LTTE on her arrival in Colombo from Frankfurt. She is said to have raised funds for the LTTE in Frankfurt.

In Vancouver, Canada Prapaharan Thambithurai, 46, was convicted of "providing financial services, knowing that they will benefit a terrorist group, namely the (LTTE)" and sentenced to six months jail. This was the first case to be tried under new Canadian legislation against financing foreign terrorist organizations. Thambithurai, a low level LTTE fund raiser, pleaded guilty.

The Special Task Force (STF) has arrested two suspected LTTE cadres in Kalmunai and Kalawanchikudi in eastern province for engaging in anti-state activities and promoting the LTTE.

The controversial Transnational Government of Tamil Eelaam (TGTE) held its inaugural sessions in the city of Philadelphia in the U.S. from May 17-19. A committee of 13 ‘experts’ known to be sympathetic to the LTTE cause has been formed. The TGTE claims it would lobby for the support of the inter-national community to find a political solution to the Tamil national question on the basis of Nationhood, Homeland and the Right to Self-determination through political and diplomatic channels.

However, the formation of the TGTE by the former LTTE cadres and supporters has caused a great deal of concern in Sri Lanka. It had been cautioning the inter-national community on the need to curb TGTE in order to prevent resurgence of LTTE in their soil. In particular Sri Lanka has urged the European governments not to provide any political or symbolic support to the TGTE. Sri Lanka is also investigating suspected LTTE activity in Venezuela after receiving a report from its ambassador in Havana.

Despite all these efforts as of now, the Diaspora shaken by the wiping out of the LTTE is disillusioned. It will take quite sometime for the TGTE to cause any major impact as its support inside Sri Lanka is probably minimal and muted.