After five weeks of absence from Sri Lanka watching, the country's political scene on the run up to the April 8 parliamentary poll strangely appears to follow the same rut of words rather than action. The country has been witnessing the same during the last two decades. The recriminations are similar, and the rulers callousness so repetitive. Only the show case trial of General Sarath Fonseka and of course, pre-election violence show a greater degree of viciousness unlike the presidential elections of the past.
The trial of General Fonseka appears to be aimed at deconstructing his image as a national war hero and remove his potential to politically challenge President Mahinda Rajapaksa or tarnish status as the arch priest of victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). With this aim in view three streams of investigation and prosecution appear to be underway. The first one under the military law relates to his participation in political activity while in service, and the second is a corruption charge in military purchase deal, presumably in collusion with his son-in-law.
But these two are not as damaging to the General’s ‘hero status’ as the third charge not yet levied on him. It is spoken of only through innuendos of his role in plotting to overthrow the elected President through a military coup and seize power.
Thus in addition to the General and his family, the entire pantheon of his friends and admirers among retired and serving armed forces personnel, government officials, media men and politicians is likely to be dragged down in this process. Thus, now we have in Sri Lanka vendetta politics on its worst display.
The Rajapaksa government appears to have succeeded in what it set about doing by arresting the General. Whether the charges against the hapless General, who dared to contest against President Rajapaksa are proved or not, his arrest has effectively taken him out of campaigning during the general election. This may well the objective of prosecuting him now, rather than on more serious charge of attempted coup when more details are collected.
His removal from the electoral scene has deprived the opposition parties the only rallying point on which they could come together to fight the ruling coalition. However, lacking a Plan B after the General’s arrest, the opposition parties have started speaking in many voices dissipating their short lived unity of purpose.
The President’s huge mandate from Sinhala population in the presidential poll has placed him in a unique position to resolve the ethnic problem. He had also kindled general expectation that he would take up this after his election.
President Rajapaksa had painted the LTTE led insurgency as the root cause of all evils. If it had been so, ethnic divide should have vanished with the demise of Tamil Tigers. He has offered neither a creative solution nor a chalked out a time bound path for reconciliation. So ethnic divide is still very much alive; and it is at the root of most evils bugging the country. In fact, the elections have given a fresh lease of life to the ethnic issue.
Even after the new parliament is elected no one is sure a political package would be offered as promised by the President. So many promises in the past have remained only that – promises. No one seriously believes political promises anymore, it seems. In the process it has turned the limelight on a whole lot of internationally embarrassing issues including those of governance, transparency, accountability and human rights.
The Rajapaksa stratagem appears to be to play out for time; otherwise it is difficult to understand the purpose of appointing yet another committee “to study the root cause of the ethnic conflict, lessons learnt by the island-nation since sections of Tamils took to militancy in a bid to gain their rights and aspirations, and the challenges faced by the country.” There are enough studies and papers written on the subject already. A historian rather than a committee should be adequate to cull out nuggets of wisdom from them. Committees have a survival instinct and elastic existence.
It seems appropriate that Mahinda Samarasinghe, the Minister for Disaster Management and Human Rights (a curious, but appropriate, combination of portfolios as Human Rights require disaster management now), announced the news of the proposed commission. Despite the lofty objectives proclaimed, the real reason for its creation is probably more mundane - a knee jerk reaction to the UN General Ban Ki Moon’s intention to appoint a commission of experts to probe possible human rights abuses and violations during Sri Lanka's civil war.
As neither the UN nor international community is likely to impressed by such a move, it is also probably an expediency to buy time for political maneuvering rather than address core issues. This is so typical of the ‘Band Aid’ strategy of Sri Lanka government had been following for sometime now.
Sri Lanka’s inability to address the core issues is understandable. Sri Lanka has to unlearn rather than learn a few things that have cramped its style and prevented it from addressing the core issues. These “interlopers” have sapped its strength and turned politics into a circus of short lived daring acts. These “interlopers” are: adoption of “emergency politics” as a political stratagem, erosion of rule of law, and continuing threat to fundamental freedoms including human rights, freedom of expression and the right to dissent.
These issues affect the entire population rather than any specific ethnic group. Unless they are rooted out there will be no credibility in the political process including conduct of free and fair elections. The fall out of lack of credibility of government and rising public cynicism can prevent evolution of democratic solutions to national problems. Such societies become incubators of insurgency movements. The bottom line is the Tamil ethnic issue cannot be resolved unless structural issues are addressed with an open mind without political paranoia.
Unlike the presidential poll, there is a clear lack of public enthusiasm in the parliamentary elections. In his detailed interview to the editor of The Hindu (published on February 13) President Rajapaksa sounded supremely confident of winning the parliamentary election “very comfortably.” In fact, the President talked of the ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) getting a two-thirds majority or “close to that.”
Proportional representation system in parliament makes it difficult for any single party to gain absolute majority. Out of the 225 members of parliament, 196 members are elected directly. The remaining 29 members are appointed from the National List based upon the percentage of votes secured by the contesting parties. So despite Rajapaksa’s confidence, and weakening of the opposition, UPFA securing two-thirds majority may not be such a simple equation.
In this context, Rajapaksa’s seemingly humorous remark on the subject made in the interview is significant. He said “finally, Ranil Wickremasinghe's crowd is there to come back and join me.” It is much more than humour; welcoming deserters from the UNP to UPFA coalition had been part of his electoral calculus in the past. In the process of attracting defectors in the outgoing parliament, he managed to split almost all parties and benefited from its fall out. And we can expect this to happen now also.
Proportional representation system in parliament makes it difficult for any single party to gain absolute majority. Out of the 225 members of parliament, 196 members are elected directly. The remaining 29 members are appointed from the National List based upon the percentage of votes secured by the contesting parties.
The Tamil Diaspora still appears to the dreaming of Tamil Eelam. Dreams do not become reality unless they related to the real world. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has metamorphosed into Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) reverting back to the Federal Party days when the Tamil Tigers were not born. But this cosmetic change is not enough. The historical moment for reincarnation of Federal Party is probably over. The ITAK cannot have the cake and eat it for the Tamil Diaspora support. It has to make hard choices and it appears to be in no mood to do so.
ITAK has to evolve a strategy to deal with the emergence of Mahinda Rajapaksa as an unchallenged leader. He has used a mix of leveraging circumstances, back room deals, arm twisting and street smart political moves to reach this position. Unless ITAK shows it can deal with him effectively to get the best deal for Tamils, it is likely lose its flock. Its dissipation of followers will also probably see the slow dismantling of other exclusive Tamil parties as national parties pick up their cadres offering carrots of power and position.
Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group
URL: http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cnotes6%5Cnote573.html
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