[This summary was written on November 30,2009 and published in the December 2009 issue of the "South Asia Security Trends" Volume 3 No 10.]
Presidential election
President Mahinda Rajapaksa finally made up his mind hold the presidential election to first, two years in advance of its term, rather than conducting the parliamentary poll that is due. The election is scheduled to be held on January 26, 2010. It is clear the President, who is seeking re-election, is trying to cash in on his soaring popularity after the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the liquidation of its leadership. The President appears to have decided on this because under the proportional representation system Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) would never get absolute majority in parliament.
General Sarath Fonseka, Chief of Defence Staff, resigned his post after growing acrimony with the President. The two main opposition parties – the centre-right United National Party (UNP) and the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) – as pledged to support him as a presidential candidate to oppose Rajapaksa. The General has accepted the offer and has announced that he would be contesting as a common candidate with the symbol of swan. He is likely to prove to be a formidable opponent to the President. The ruling coalition appears to be making a systematic effort to bring down the image of General Fonseka and play down his contribution to military victory. However, the President’s singular lack of sensitivity in handling the General’s personal grievances including security and housing after retirement could affect Rajapaksa’s popularity and work in favour of the General. Fonseka still retains the ability to muster votes across the political spectrum and his candidacy should not be under estimated. However, both the UNP and JVP have internal dissensions that could affect their parties wholehearted support to Fonseka.
Though Rajapaksa has been triumphant in all the provincial council elections held after the military victory over the LTTE, in the post war period his regime has come under severe criticism for corruption, nepotism, lawlessness, lack of accountability of government officials and ministers and gross violations of human rights. Thanks to the inflation due to the war has not abated and the prices of essential goods have soared. The inept handling of the international concerns on war crimes and lack of sensitivity to humanitarian issues shown by Sri Lanka is likely to result in the ending of the GSP+ tariff concessions for export to the EU countries in 2010. Labour unrest is increasing.
Tamils as the largest minority could tilt the balance in a close presidential race and affect the chances of either candidate. Rajapaksa’s handling of Tamil minority during and after the war has not endeared him. In a bid to woo their votes, the government has announced the release of over 130,000 Tamil displaced people retained in camps. Despite this effort the Tamils would rather not vote for Rajapaksa.
However, pro-Rajapaksa Tamil parties are already falling in line to support him. Apart from plantation Tamil parties, the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP) and the Peoples Liberation Organisation for Taml Eelam (PLOTE) have also announced their support. But a sizeable Tamil segment - the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) parties - continues to sit on the fence despite overtures from the President for their support. Their leadership appear to be divided on the issue.
For many Tamils and liberal Sri Lankans, who are unhappy with the style of Rajapaksa, General Fonseka does not provide a better option. Despite his recent statements sympathetic to the plight of war displaced Tamils and on human rights and democracy the General has image as a Sinhala hardliner.
In a bid to forge unity among all minority Tamil and Muslim parties, a convention was held in Switzerland recently. Almost all the Tamil leaders including those of EPDP and PLOTE attended the meeting in which the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) leaders also participated. Despite pious pronouncements on issues of devolution there appear to be no unanimity among them on presidential poll as evidenced by the EPDP and PLOTE announcements of support to Rajapaksa after the meeting. Muslim votes have always been split between the three major Muslim factions in politics. This is likely to continue.
Given this situation both the main candidates may not get the whole hearted support of Tamil community even if Tamil parties decide to support either of the candidates. Although it is too early to make an assessment, as of now the odds are in favour of Rajapaksa’s re-election.
LTTE remnants in faction fight
The Heroes Day – November 27 – this year brought out the deep fissure between two factions among remnants of LTTE, one claiming to still exist in the island nation and the other trying to retain hold over LTTE’s overseas units. Traditionally, Heroes Day was celebrated with a policy statement from V Prabhakaran, the founder leader of the insurgent group. After his death and elimination of the entire leadership in the last stages of war the only leader to survive was Kumaran Pathmanathan (KP). After he was arrested in Kuala Lumpur and taken to Sri Lanka a few months ago, the efforts of the junior leaders among the remnants to claim the leadership legitimacy have intensified. On the eve of the Heroes Day 2009, this had brought to the fore a lot of mutual accusations and recriminations between the Sri Lanka faction led by ‘Col Ram’ and the International faction led by K Arivazhagan.
The Sri Lanka Faction, still swearing loyalty to KP, claims astrength of 300 cadres operating in the island. Col Ram was the former leader of the LTTE in Batticaloa-Amparai region and had escaped capture in the aftermath of Thoppigala operation in 2007. Col Ram and his deputy Lt Col Nakulan were the rallying point for LTTE revival. In a statement Col Ram accused the International faction of embezzling “cash and property worth millions of dollars” stashed overseas by the LTTE. He cautioned Tamil Diaspora against their claims of legitimacy in order to control its overseas patrons and grab the organisations overseas assets.
On the other hand K Arivazhagan, the ovrseas claimant of leadership, in a statement denounced Col Ram and Nakulan as puppets of Sri Lanka intelligence who were trying to deceive the people. Arivazhagan said Ram was in Sri Lankan custody and it was on his information KP was taken prisoner overseas and brought to Sri Lanka.He cautioned the Tamil Diaspora about Sri Lankan intelligence efforts to divide overseas Tamil support for the Eelam cause.
According to Dr. Rohan Gunaratne, terrorism expert and Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, the LTTE set up in the island has been dismantled completely. There were two factions within the LTTE international. One was led by Perinpanayagam Sivaparan alias Nediyawan in Norway that advocated armed struggle to create Tamil Eelam. It still swears by Prabhakaran and sports the LTTE flag. The second faction is headed by V. Rudrakumaran in New York advocated a political approach to create a separate Tamil state.
This assessment appears to be more correct as Col Ram is believed to be in Sri Lankan custody and there is no organised LTTE operation within the island. K Arivazhagan belongs to the Nediyavan faction. Moreover, pro-LTTE Sri Lanka Tamil MP Chandra Nehru while addressing Sri Lankan Tamils living in Singapore has recently cautioned against those claiming to be LTTE leaders still operating in Sri Lanka.
However, LTTE operations overseas are going to be more and more difficult as many countries which had tolerated them earlier are cracking down upon them now. In France, 21 LTTE cadres have been sentenced to varying prison terms ranging from two years to seven years for extortion and intimidation to collect funds for the organisation.
Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, www.security-risks.com
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