Trade and economic prospects
The European Council is likely to take a final decision on the extension of the GSP+ tariff concessions to Sri Lanka in the first week of January 2010, to become effective from middle of June, 2010. The investigation report compiled by the EU Committee on the effective implementation of Human Rights in Sri Lanka submitted to the EU Headquarters on Oct 19, 2009 is likely to influence the decision. The report is said to be negative and highlights a number of human rights concerns in Sri Lanka.
However, Sri Lanka Central Bank has said that Sri Lankan exports would not be adversely affected even if the EU withdrew the concession. Quoting the latest external trade data the Bank expected that exports to continue to increase during 2009 and 2010 regardless of the continuation of GSP+ concessions. Quoting the European Commission’s estimate, it assessed the benefits of lower import duties under the GSP+ scheme for the year 2008 at only 1.4% of Sri Lanka’s total exports. “So the loss of preferential duty margin by around 6-7% arising from a potential withdrawal of the GSP plus facility is not expected to have an adverse impact on Sri Lanka’s exports,” the Central Bank added.
It is assessed that loss of the zero tariff concessions could increase the price of Sri Lankan goods up to 10 per cent in the EU markets and make them less competitive. Apparel industry which forms about 45 percent of exports would be hard hit by the withdrawal of concessions. Opposition parties have warned it would mean loss of jobs and reputation of Sri Lanka.
Internally displaced people
The first ever delegation of Tamil Nadu parliamentarians made a five-day visit to Sri Lanka during the month. The 10-memebr “non official” delegation composed of members from the three political parties of the ruling coalition in New Delhi –– the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK)), the Congress party and the pro-LTTE Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi (VCK) was ostensibly to understand the problems of Tamils, particularly war displaced people living in camps. Evidently, this was a political exercise to remove the stigma that these parties had not helped the Tamils during the war and later in freeing of the IDPs from government controlled camps. In spite of this political intention it was a welcome move as Tamil Nadu politicians were positively thinking about bringing amity between the two ethnic communities in Sri Lanka rather than taking up the Eelam litany to serve their own political ends.
The delegation visited IDP camps and submitted a report to the Tamil Nadu government. It spoke of a promise by President Rajapaksa that 58,000 IDPs would be released within a fortnight. The Sri Lanka government had planned the release even before the delegation’s visit; but it went along to substantiate the delegation’s claim and by the end of the month over 58,000 IDPs were allowed to return home. However, in Tamil Nadu there was only lukewarm interest with the political parties reverting to their original political positions. In particular, the VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan after a brief pause took up Eelam propaganda, trying to immortalize V Prabhakaran as a national hero of Tamils.
The Sri Lankan Minister for Youth Empowerment and Socio, Economic Development, Arumuga Thondaman visited Chennai to brief the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister apparently on Tamil IDP issue. According to him 1.86 lakh IDPs would continue to stay in camps during the monsoon period as their release was condtional to receiving certification from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees on demining and humanitarian aspects. As of now, Sri Lanka government appears to have succeeded in satisfying ruling Tamil lobbies in Delhi and Chennai.
Human rights issues
Even as dust had not settled on the EU investigation report, Stephen Rapp, U.S. ambassador-at-large for war crimes issues, filed a report to U.S. Congress on incidents relating to violations of international humanitarian law and crimes against humanity in the Sri Lanka war between January to May 2009. The report chronicled allegations of war crimes by both Sri Lanka and the LTTE. The Senate subcommittee on the State Department and foreign operations has called for "a full and independent investigation" so those responsible can be "held accountable."
The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has also joined in the call for a similar investigation of Sri Lanka's war. These moves are likely to further strengthen the Sri Lanka Tamil Diaspora’s campaign demanding the trial of Sri Lanka army commander and government officials for carrying out genocide of Tamils during the war.
Given this climate of adverse publicity, it is not clear why the government is dragging its feet on taking strong measures to improve its human rights record. The government had generally been describing such criticisms as part of a deliberate international smear campaign. Even ministers in responsible positions had been making loose comments. Typical was the comment of Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickramanayaka when the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton included Sri Lanka among countries where women were raped during war. Although it could have ignored as a passing reference, the Prime Minister took her to task and linked it to Bill Clinton’s short-lived “affair” with Monica Lewinsky.
What Sri Lanka hopes to gain by such campaign is not clear. The anti-west posturing is probably connected with political rabble rousing for use in forthcoming elections. But already it is making things a little more difficult for Sri Lanka in handling international issues, particularly in the EU, UK and the U.S. And it could get worse when the genocide snowball gathers more momentum.
Political developments
President Mahinda Rajapaksa does not appear to have made up his mind on holding of presidential poll before the parliamentary poll due to be held in early 2010. He would be sacrificing two years of his present term by going for re-election. On the other hand he would like to use his current popularity to gain both a second term and a two thirds majority for his coalition in parliament.
The opposition United National Party (UNP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), despite their ideological differences, appear to be in agreement in fielding General Sarath Fonseka, who has become a national hero after routing the LTTE, as a common presidential candidate against President Rajapaksa. He would be eligible as he is due for retirement when his tenure as CDS ends in December 2009.
Such a move could strengthen the opposition in the President. However, reduce the margin of victory for Rajapaksa who has the political edge. There had been a great deal of speculation in the media about this which has caused concern to the ruling coalition. A subtle campaign is going on to bring down the role of Fonseka by upgrading Rajapaksa’s contribution in winning the war.
Adding insult to the injury the government offered him the appointment of secretary to the Ministry of Sports which the General turned down. We can expect President Rajapaksa to make political moves to dissuade the General from contesting even as the opposition brings pressure on him to contest the presidential poll.
Security
The security forces’ search operations in north and east have unearthed more arms caches during the month. About 60 LTTE members spotted among the IDPs are being sent to rehabilitation camps. Verification of LTTE documents is said to have revealed that the LTTE had supplied arms and ammunition worth Rs 400 crores to Indian insurgent groups particularly in Assam.
Based on information gained from interrogation of prisoners, police have arrested a number of people including police officers and government officials who had been on the pay roll of the LTTE. The CID has arrested Colonel Ranjith Perera and his wife and three others on suspicion of conspiring to assassinate the President. Their interrogation is going on.
However, so far there had been no indication of any fresh LTTE activity.
Courtesy: Security Trends Vol 3 No 9, www.security-risk.com
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