Courtesy: Security Trends Volume3 No 9
Worsening export prospects
The month saw further worsening of Sri Lanka’s overall image due to its continued inability to handle international community's concerns on the twin issues of rehabilitation of internally displaced people (IDP) and human rights abuses. The EU report on Sri Lanka compiled on conformity to stipulations for extension of GSP+ tariff concessions is said to condemn Sri Lanka armed forces for “perverting the evidence and silencing witnesses, rather than conducting any real investigations” on human rights issues. The adverse report could affect the extension of the concessions for the period 2009-11.
Sri Lanka is among 16 countries enjoying duty-free access to EU for about 7200 products since December 2005. The concession extended after the Tsunami struck the country is due for extension for the period 2009-11.The EU had given one year reprieve early this year for Sri Lanka to improve its standards of governance. However to qualify for GSP+ concessions, the beneficiaries must also have effectively implemented 27 specified international conventions in the fields of human rights, core labour standards, sustainable development and good governance. This is where Sri Lanka appears to be failing.
If the concession is not extended it could adversely affect competitiveness of Sri Lanka exports to EU, particularly in respect of apparel industry. Other industries likely to be affected are fisheries, gems and jewellery, and rubber products. At least a million people employed directly and indirect are likely to be affected by adverse EU action.
Sri Lanka is unlikely to relent as it sees the issue as affecting its prestige. The government appears to be reconciled to the loss of the EU concession although only in October 2009 the EU is set to take the final decision.
Internally displaced people
The international pressure on Sri Lanka to release and resettle 250,000 people now held in temporary camps mounted during the month. In a bid to ward off such criticism, Sri Lanka has taken action to speed up mine clearance operations, expand rehabilitation programmes for about 10,000 ex-LTTE cadres whose dossiers have been completed, and allow families having relatives who would take them to move out of the camps. About 107 Hindu priests and their families have also been freed. The screening of approximately 160,000 persons had been completed and 110,000 are being issued identity cards. With these measures, the government has claimed by October it would reduce the number of camp inmates to 100,000. It has also decided to set up special courts to clear the backlog of cases against thousands of LTTE suspects including 20,000 cadres who surrendered at the end of the war.
However, these measures have not satisfied the four co-chairs of the peace process 2002, particularly the EU and the U.S. In Tamil Nadu, the simmering public resentment at the treatment meted out to the IDPs is gathering momentum and Chief Minister M Karunanidhi has strongly taken up the issue of providing relief to the displaced people with New Delhi. The Government of India is also coming under increasing pressure to act in this regard.
The US is in consultation with India on this subject as evident from the recent meeting of the U.S. Ambassador to India Tim Roemer with Chief Minister M Karunanidhi to discuss the IDP situation. The ambassador’s statement after the meeting that the US had invested “close to USD 80 million in 2008 and 2009 to make sure that the process continued in a quick, expeditious humane and just fashion,” is significant.
Human rights issues
Sri Lanka government’s hypersensitivity to international criticism of its human rights record came to a pause when it revoked the visa of .James Elder, spokesman for UNICEF in Sri Lanka. It expelled him for alleged spreading information of exaggerated civilian casualties due to Sri Lankan artillery shelling in the final stages of war. UNICEF promptly denied the allegations. Ban Ki Moon, UN secretary-general strongly regretted the decision of Sri Lanka to expel Elder. Relations between the UN agencies in Sri Lanka and the government have been uneasy relations after their strong criticism of Sri Lanka’s handling of human rights and humanitarian issues during the last few years. The expulsion of Elder is likely to further worsen the relations.
The sentencing of Sri Lanka journalist JS Tissanayagam to 20 years hard labour under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) on charges of defaming the government and rousing racism has drawn severe international criticism. U.S. President Barack Obama in his World Press Freedom Day address in May, had drawn attention to Tissainayagam as the symbol of oppressed media. Similarly, Sri Lanka came down heavily upon the British TV Channel 4 when it showed a video of alleged Sri Lankan army execution of Tamil militants in custody, and condemned it as a part of pro-LTTE smear campaign.
India’s response
With Sri Lanka's exports ot EU in peril, India would gain importance as an export destination for Sri Lanka products. However, there are two riders: Sri Lankan apparels have to face Indian apparel industry and Indian investments could dry up as duty free export from Sri Lanka to EU was a major attraction. Regardless of this, Indian government appears to be showing solidarity with the Rajapaksa regime as it has increased its assistance over a wide area ranging from vocational training to mine clearing to infrastructure development.
As an immediate measure of relief India is providing 5200 tons shelter material to Sri Lanka for the IDPs Out of this 2600 tons have already been delivered. A delegation of the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) has already visited Sri Lanka to advice on restoring the agricultural operations in the north. Indian Railways is likely to help Colombo lay at least two rail lines in the areas earlier controlled by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the north.
India’s increasing profile in Sri Lanka is likely to draw greater Chinese economic involvement in the country as a counterpoise. Probably the moves of the two nations are encouraging Sri Lanka to follow its own course regardless of adverse Western reaction.
Political developments
Buoyed by its success in the local elections in Vavuniya, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) is trying to gear itself to play a key role in the national and presidential elections scheduled in early 2010. Its leaders had the first ever political meeting with President Rajapaksa; however, nothing concrete appears to have emerged so far. Despite this, we can expect overtures from the President in the coming months to win TNA support for the ruling coalition. The TNA’s priority would probably be to shed its pro-LTTE image acquired in the earlier years and emerge as guardian of the Tamil cause. The ability of its leaders to do some political tight rope walking in this respect is questionable unless they can forge a common platform.
Security
The security forces have continued their search operations in north and east to recover arms caches and arrested a number of former LTTE cadres and officials.
Copyright: Security Trends www.security-risk.com
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