Sri Lanka Perspectives – August 2009

Local elections in the North

The month saw the first move towards normalcy in the war torn Northern Province with conduct of largely trouble free elections for the Jaffna Municipality and the Vavuniya Urban Council on August 8. Though these elections were only local, they were an indicator of post war Tamil perceptions. The success of the elections proved that remnants of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had neither the will nor the capacity to interfere with the process.

Though only 20% of the total of 100,000 voters was polled in Jaffna, according to observers it actually worked out to 40% of available voters as many did not receive their voting cards. The ruling United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) spearheaded by the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP), its anti-LTTE Tamil coalition partner, won 13 of the 23 seats of the municipal council paving for the election of its nominee as the mayor.

On the other hand, in Vavuniya the voter turnout was 52%. However, the ruling coalition had a rude jolt when the pro-LTTE coalition - the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) - came out as the largest party winning five of the 11 seats while the moderate Peoples Democratic Front (PDF) came second. The verdict indicates strong support to the two issues propagated by the TNA - preservation of Tamil identity and demand for autonomy. It was also a public disapproval of the government policy of detaining 300,000 war displaced Tamils of Vanni in temporary camps instead of allowing them to return to their homes. The President can be expected to make plans for realignment of his support base among Tamil political parties to ensure he gains Tamil votes in the next presidential as it could become crucial.

However, in the elections for the Uva Provincial Council in the south held at the same time, the UPFA came out on top polling 72% of the votes and securing 25 of the 34 seats. The main opposition United National Party (UNP) polled only 22% of the votes and won only seats. The Leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) was routed. It polled only 2% of the votes polled and secured only one seat. This indicates the strong support the President is enjoying in the south, following his victory against the LTTE.

Continuing woes of displaced people

The international criticism of Sri Lanka’s performance in handling humanitarian and human rights issues gathered further momentum as monsoon rains flooded some of the camps added to the misery of displaced people detained there. Both the U.S. and the UK came out with strong statements asking Sri Lanka to rehabilitate them speedily.
The government and the UN agencies were blaming each other for establishing the camps in low lying areas and providing poor infrastructure facilities. There appear to be differences within the government on the issue of repatriation the displaced people to their villages. The Defence Secretary had made it clear that unless the inmates were screened for identifying LTTE elements in their midst, they would not be allowed to go. On the other hand other ministries have been trying to soft pedal the issue citing the need to complete the mine clearance operations going on in many parts of Northern Province. It was clear that the government was dragging its feet over the issue perhaps due to internal differences.

However, perhaps in deference to Sri Lanka’s promises to India and the mounting international criticism probably one third of the inmates are likely to be released during September. Further delay in this respect is likely to embarrass the Indian government which could come under public pressure in Tamil Nadu.

Human rights issues

The President expressed his concern over growing high handed behaviour of police and ministers which reached a new high during the month. One minister was arrested for freeing an arrested person from a police station. A senior police officer and his wife are being prosecuted for kidnapping, torturing and killing three students. A crackdown against police corruption and misconduct is under way. According to the head of police as many as 189 policemen were under investigation during the month. However, there is a strong nexus between politicians and corrupt police elements and the cleansing operation is unlikely to yield satisfactory results in the near future.

Sri Lanka army plans

The Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Sarath Fonseka, in his first public appearance in nearly three months speaking on ‘Winning Military Strategies - Lessons for Managers,’ said the Sri Lanka Army’s strategy of acting like guerrilla organisation, restructuring of the Army, ending corruption, increasing its strength and firepower and organizing a direct chain of command that went from the top to grass root levels as the key elements that ended the LTTE terrorism. It is significant that he had touched upon corruption – an issue that had plagued armed forces for a long time. He also said that most of the targets engaged by the air force and navy were based upon the revamped military intelligence.

General Fonseka’s emergence as a strong leader has had its ripples on politics as well. He has disowned an e-mail containing a statement purported to have been issued by him which had been circulating. The statement containing extremely right wing views and Indian slant was highly critical of present political leadership as a whole. Though the e-mail lacked credibility it appears to have created ripples in political circles.

LTTE’s survival pains

The tentative efforts made to rebuild the leadership-less LTTE with the installation of Kumaran Pathmanathan (KP), its senior most surviving leader and international representative as General Secretary, collapsed after his dramatic arrest in Kuala Lumpur and rendition to Colombo on August 6. Sri Lankan intelligence in coordination with Malaysia and Thailand carried out the operation and took him into custody when he had gone to Kuala Lumpur for a meeting with two Sri Lanka Tamils related to the late Nadesan, political head of the LTTE. KP was flown to Colombo via Bangkok in a special Sri Lankan aircraft.

There had been lots of speculation about the circumstances of his apprehension. They range from involvement of foreign intelligence agencies in the operation, some LTTE blacklegs turning informers, and the hands of expatriate Tamils turning against KP. Whatever be the truth behind the arrest, it was a remarkable achievement of Sri Lanka intelligence. With KP’s arrest, the LTTE’s succession struggle is likely to start all over again and the process may not be smooth. Sivaparan alias Nediyavan, related to the late LTTE political wing leader Tamilchelvan, and who opposed the rise of KP earlier, was tipped as successor. The Norwegian police are reported to be keeping a watch on Nediyawan who is living in exile there.

The Sri Lankans have made a number of arrests and recovered sizeable quantities of arms from caches in Colombo and Vanni based upon information given by KP. India will undoubtedly welcome the arrest of KP who is suspected to have been involved in Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination plot and other cases of gun running in India.

[This analysis of activities in Sri Lanka during Aug 2008 was written on August 31, 2009 for South Asia Security Trends published by www.security-risks.com who hold the copy right.]