[This assessment of Sri Lanka for the month of July 2009 was written on July 31, 2009 for www.security-risks.com publication SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS. Courtesy: www.security-risks.com.]
After weathering sustained international pressure over humanitarian issues after the war generated at the UN last month, President Mahinda Rajapaksa appeared to be focusing on strengthening his political base at home. He gave a number of freewheeling interviews to the media covering wide ranging issues. Among them two interviews – one in The Hindu and the other in the Time magazine - addressed issues of interest to India and international community respectively. When read with the political developments, the interviews indicated the following trends:
1. The President intends to go for presidential poll early next year although his term ends only in 2012. Ostensibly he would like to get a mandate from the people before he takes up political reforms for implementing the 13th amendment dealing with decentralisation of powers to the provinces (with some ‘add on’). Though the 13th amendment forms part of the Sri Lanka constitution it had not been implemented in full. The President probably wants to strengthen his own base as two coalition partners the right wing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and the leftist Wimal Weerawansa led Jathika Nidahas Peramuna (JNP) had voiced their opposition to the implementation of the 13th Amendment. His success in the presidential poll would also help his party the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) to sweep the parliamentary poll due next year.
2. The repatriation of displaced people of Vanni back to their villages might not be completed by the target date in November 2009. The President attributed three reasons for this: de-mining of villages work is not over, LTTE cadres continue to be weeded out from the camps and their weapons cache are being unearthed, and infrastructure for their normal life is not yet ready. President Rajapaksa would like to do this on his own terms and not at the behest of the West which would be interpreted locally as a weakness.
3. Sri Lanka army would be recruiting additional 200,000 soldiers, to prevent the LTTE from staging a comeback after displaced people return to their villages in Vanni. This is probably an important reason for delaying their return to villages. Tamil soldiers are also being recruited. Unless this was done the President probably apprehends the LTTE to assert once again and extort funds from Vanni people for its resurgence.
4. The President is unlikely to seriously take up the wide ranging reforms proposed by the All Parties Committee for evolving a consensus on devolution under Tissa Vitarana constituted in 2006. Instead he has now convened a meeting of the Committee on Development & Reconciliation (CDR), at which leaders and representatives of 22 political parties including not only the JHU and the JNP, but also the United National Party (UNP), the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and even the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) participated. Significantly the objective of the CDR is to build a consensus among political parties for development and reconciliation. This move is likely to be interpreted by the Tamils as reluctance of the government to devolve powers to minorities promised earlier. The implementation of 13th amendment with some modification is likely to be the only government move towards devolution. This would also materialise after the Presidential poll.
The President’s election moves appear to have caught the opposition UNP and the JVP parties off guard. In a scramble to ensure its own distinct political stature, the UNP has taken a major initiative to realign its perspectives on economic policy and the issue of federalism as a solution to bring ethnic reconciliation. The party conclave abandoned federalism which had formed the bedrock of the peace process promoted by the UNP in 2002. The JVP has come out strongly against the implementation of 13th amendment; instead it has proposed its own set of reforms. Collectively these political developments are likely to further increase the feeling of distrust and insecurity among Tamils.
Local elections in the North
The local elections for Jaffna and Vavuniya municipalities gathered momentum. There were allegations of intimidation of other parties by cadres of the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP) led by Minister Douglas Devananda. The campaign in the Vavuniya Urban Council took a bloody turn when two prominent citizens – one a school principal and the other a well known businessmen were shot dead by unknown persons. There might be more blood shed before the election is held on August 8, 2009. Although the Elections Department has said it would set up polling booths in IDP camps if there were sufficient number of eligible voters, the response to registration so far had been marginal.
International affairs
The International Monetary Fund approved a $2.6 billion loan to Sri Lanka on July 25.The U.S., Britain and France had abstained in the voting to voice their concern about human-rights violations and doubts about Sri Lanka's commitment to change. According to the IMF a clear majority of members particularly Asian countries backed the loan.
The IMF said the loan was intended "to restore fiscal and external viability and address the significant reconstruction needs of the conflict-affected areas, thereby laying the basis for future higher economic growth." The sanctioning of the loan despite opposition from the West would strengthen the public image of President Rajapaksa.
LTTE’s succession pains
Efforts were made during the month at reconciling the two contending factions within the LTTE to control the organisation. On the one side was Kumaran Pathmanathan (KP), the international representative of the LTTE while on the other the faction led by Sivaparan alias Nediyavan, who was assistant to the late LTTE political wing leader Tamilchelvan, known for his opposition to KP. According to columnist DBS Jeyaraj, finally Nediyavan had agreed to accept KP’s leadership.
The agreement envisaged the restructuring of overseas LTTE as a single organization with different departments or secretariats. KP would be “Thalamai Seyalar” (Chief Secretary or Secretary – General) and be in overall charge. There would be various secretariats in charge of specific functions like human rights, resettlement, rehabilitation, reconstruction, peace building, development, negotiations, political action, policymaking, public relations, media relations, resource management etc.
Nediyavan would be in charge of the Department of Diaspora Affairs. He would be responsible for administration of the various LTTE branches and institutions of the Tamil Diaspora. He would function under KP’s overall LTTE leadership and acknowledge him as head. However it is not clear whether these changes have been accepted by the Tamil Nadu pro- LTTE political leaders Vaiko and Nedumaran. They had earlier refused to recognize KP as the leader as they insisted that Prabhakaran was still alive.
It is significant that there had been no move to marshal the remnants of LTTE scattered within Sri Lanka. Apparently, this would be taken up later as at present KP’s statements focuses mostly on political and rehabilitation aspects to seek understanding and help from international community, particularly India. Any talk of taking up arms once again could jeopardize KP’s moves to get the help of international community and this could affect consolidation of LTTE’s overseas assets.
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