UN Arms Trade Treaty & Tackling Armed Non-State Groups

By Col R Hariharan (Retd.)

[Excerpts from this article were included in a presentation made by the author at a conference “Towards a United Nations Arms Trade Treaty by 2012” organised by the Control Arms Foundation of India at New Delhi on February 16 & 17, 2010.]

Introduction

The United Nations is poised to bring an international agreement on global arms trade and finalise ‘a strong and robust’ Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) at the conference to scheduled for July 2012. Already 153 nations have voted in favour of the resolution towards this while 19 countries including India abstained while one voted against it.

Can ATT help to check the rising tide of terrorism and other forms of violence by armed non state groups (ANSG)? This question is of immediate relevance to South Asian nations, particularly India and Pakistan, who are facing sustained ANSG inspired violence for a few years now.

This article tries to answer this question and examine some of the priority areas for action for using the ATT advantageously in the fight against ANSG violence in South Asia.

Rising scourge of terrorism

Terrorism has become the number one scourge of 21st century. According to the January 2010 strategic comment of the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) there is likelihood of violent extremism remaining high in 2010 due to continued geo-political conflict in Afghanistan and Kashmir.

This is evident from the ever increasing number of lives lost due to violent extremism of armed non-state groups (ANSG) in India and Pakistan – the two nations most affected by the ANSG. In the year 2009, a total of 13,801 people lost their lives in these two countries due to ANSG related activities (see Table 1 for details). This means on an average of 38 lives are lost daily representing 3.8% of estimated loss of 1000 lives every day world wide due to ANSG related activities.

Table 1-Fatalities due to violent extremism 2009
Pakistan	India
Civilians 2307	Civilians 722
SF personnel 1011	SF personnel 431
ANSG persons 8267	ANSG persons 1073
Total killed 2009 á 11585	Total killed 2009 â 2226
Total killed 2008 á 6716	Total killed 2008 ↔ 2611

Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal February 2010

In real terms, the damage caused by ANSG activities is much more than fatalities. Given the practice of joint families in Asia, 13,800 fatalities would affect the lives of about 138,000 members of their families forever. As most of these fatalities are among the people of younger age group, their death in the most productive period represents substantial loss of human resources of nations.

Control of armed extremism comes at a high cost to the state draining its resources. The state is compelled to expand, train and arm police, paramilitary and security forces to fight extremists. Often states have to divert funds from social welfare sector to sustain counter terror operations. , Terrorist also damage infrastructure and dislocate normal life of people. Poor people, particularly daily wage earners are the most affected by such disruptions. ANSG actions also create social unrest and friction within the community.

Arms trade and ANSG activities

Global military expenditure, which had gone down at the end of Cold War, had has been steadily increasing since 1994. It has now reached Cold War levels to $ 1.427 trillion.

According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Year Book 2009 data, out of the world military expenditure of $ 1.4 trillion in 2008, the U.S. accounted for 48% of total expenditure while Europe followed with 20%. Out of this a substantial amount relates to expenditure incurred in procuring weapons to tackle ANSG.

At the heart of all ANSG activities is the muscle power arms give. And ANSG are the key driving force for thriving illegal arms trade world wide. This home truth was not unknown to the international community. As early as 1994, the UN Disarmament Commission had noted “wherever there is violence, terrorism, subversion, drug trafficking, common and organized crime and other illegal criminal actions, their link to illegal acquisition of arms has been demonstrated.” This statement is truer now than ever before.

Modern day ANSG are technologically savvy. The ANSG are more sophisticated than before in their operational style. Their reach transcends international borders, thanks expanding networking of nations due to globalisation. They are often internationally networked. For instance the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had fraternal links with Jihadi terrorist groups operating in many countries, Maoists, United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and the PKK of Turkey.

With increasing migration of people, even small ANSG can find overseas support for their activities increasing their damage potential. They take advantage of globally networked lifestyle of the 21st century to expand their activities and enlist popular support through front organisations. They have shown their ability to use modern information and communication resources using the Internet and satellite technology to conduct operations of huge impact with a small number of people in another country as demonstrated by the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai. They have used criminal gangs to further their activities both in India and Sri Lanka. Mumbai criminal kingpin Dawood Ibrahim gang’s involvement in Jihadi terrorist strikes in Mumbai in 1996 is a case in point.

ANSG are involved in a whole gamut of other illegal activities to propagate their cause, win over and train recruits, collect funds for their activities, intimidate officials, terrorise the public, dislocate governments, run parallel State, take over and run charitable and social organisations as their fronts, run profitable business ventures under cover names to siphon off profits through illegal money laundering channels.

Operations of some of the trans-national ANSG show a remarkable ability to influence public policy misusing instruments of democracy to their advantage. They have not hesitated to use political lobbying to further their ends.

In order to carry out these activities they use arms as a source of power. So they illegal procurement and traffic of weapons becomes a key activity of ANSG. And in the process they are involved either directly or indirectly in traffic of other kinds including narcotics and illegal immigrants using forged documents and passports.

A mind mapping terrorism dramatically shows the wide range of activities connected with it (See Table 2 below). Most of these activities involve violation of civil and criminal laws by using the power of illegal arms.

Table 2 – Mind Mapping of Terrorism

Ideology, Leadership, Control, Arms: procurement-production-trafficking, Child recruitment, Training, Extortion, Violence, Organised crime, Political & NGO fronts, Smuggling, Money Laundering, Human trafficking, Benami assets, Drug & Arms Dealers, Smuggling, Threats, Corruption, Coercion, Brainwashing, Forgery, Rumours, Black propaganda, Surveillance, Murder, Kidnapping, Indoctrination, Intimidation, Lobbying, Suicide bombing, IED, Assassination, Infiltration, Human rights violations,

Illegal arms transfers and traffic have been flourishing through third country operations of nations like the U.S, China, Pakistan and the erstwhile Soviet Union. This has sustained ANSGs insurgencies worldwide i.e. Palestine, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Colombia, India, Iraq, and Myanmar. Afghan insurgency during Soviet occupation in late 90s gave a great fillip to illegal arms transfers in South Asia. They also gave muscle power to war lords of narcotic syndicates of South and Southeast Asia and Latin America. This combination of drug and arms trades has further made international illegal arms trade a lucrative business. In South Asia, ANSG had generally been sourcing illegal weapons from a number of countries worldwide. Specific geographic areas sourced for illegal arms are given in Table 3 below:

Table -3 Geographic areas involved in illegal arms trade

Northeast and Southeast Asia: China, Hong Kong, North Korea, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam.

Southwest Asia: Afghanistan and Pakistan (through ‘Afghan pipeline’)

Former Soviet Union: Ukraine

Middle East & Eastern Europe: Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey.

Africa: Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and South Africa with Eritrea as transit point.

International strategies to combat terrorism

After 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks in the U.S., globally there is greater consciousness in strengthening counter terrorism measures globally. As a result internationally coordinated actions to curb ANSG activities, cut off their international links for financing, propaganda, and trafficking links. The evolving strategies include the following:

1. Coordination: At international level cooperation to combat terrorism through coordinated action through international treaties at global, regional and national levels.
2. Cooperation: Networked data resources on ANSG activities and identities are being evolved.
3. Synergy: Nations are being helped train their security forces on techniques, and modernise their state systems to facilitate greater synergy in action.
4. Control strategies: International protocols are in place or being evolved for controlling weapons of mass destruction, illegal trafficking in arms, narcotics and humans and money laundering. The proposed UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) would come under this category.
5. Preventive strategies: Encouraging ending of existing insurgencies, defusing potential conflict areas and educating public through participatory activities.

The proposed UN Arms Trade Treaty can provide teeth to make some of these strategies more effective. The ATT enables nations to perform better in combating ANSG and contributes to improving quality of life of the people (see Table 4 below):

Table – 4 Arms Trade Treaty’s contribution in fighting ANSG

Ensures universal commitment on NO support to terrorism, armed violence and organised crime

Promotes international amity and cooperation.

Ensures accountability of arms manufacturers, dealers, transporters, & end users; makes arms trafficking more difficult

Facilitates evolution of common strategies to curtail firepower of ANSG and reduce their coercive power.

Reduces chances of success of ANSG.

Neutralises threats to democratic governance and help restore rule of law

Enables poorer nations to reduce security budgets to fight ANSG and augment social welfare outlay.

Improves quality of life of poor and downtrodden by combating whole range of threat from variety of crimes

Priorities for action

The UN will be finalising the ATT at its July 2012 session as it enjoys overwhelming support of members. People everywhere, particularly those belonging to the 19 nations had abstained in the past, should prioritise their actions to ensure the ATT successfully sails through in the UN in 2012. Some of these priorities are are listed in Table 5 below:

Table -5 Priorities for action

Spread public awareness on ATT to remove misinformation.

Enlist support of youth through institutional interaction and women’s organisations (SHG).

Network with maximum civil society organisations for making common cause on ATT.

Create allies among media for ATT cause

Political lobbying to bring pressure on their governments to support ATT.

Covert Actions

By B. Raman

The strongly-presumed hand of Mossad, the Israeli external intelligence agency, in the successful neutralisation of a Damascus-based leader of the Hamas (Mahmoud al- Mabhouh) while he was on a visit to Dubai in January last has come in the wake of other suspected covert actions of the Mossad in recent months, which were directed against Iranian nuclear scientists, who were reportedly playing a role in the development of the uranium enrichment technology.

2. While all these operations succeeded in eliminating the intended targets who posed a threat to Israel's national security, those directed against the Iranian scientists were copybook examples of covert actions whereas the one against the Hamas leader was not. The Mossad was able to maintain the total deniability of its strikes against the Iranian scientists. Till today, Iranian intelligence officials and police investigators have not been able to find out what happened. Apart from allegations, they have no evidence of the involvement of the Mossad, which has taken care not to leave any trace of its involvement.

3. In the case of the Dubai operation, the deniability has been weak and many tell-tale traces left behind by those who participated in the alleged elimination of the Hamas leader have enabled the Dubai Police to reconstruct in a fairly convincing manner what happened. The employment of an unusually large team of agents for carrying out the action and their inability to make the closed circuit TV in the hotel non-functional have enabled the Dubai police to make a break-through in the investigation.

4. The fact that the Mossad agents decided to go ahead with the operation despite their inability to make the CCTV non-functional strongly speaks of local collusion in the covert action. Since the CCTV was presumably functioning, those in the security control room of the hotel who would have been monitoring the CCTV, would have definitely noticed the Mossad agents forcing their way into the room of the Hamas leader. The fact that they did not raise an alarm for hours, which enabled the Mossad agents to flee Dubai without being intercepted, is an indicator of collusion in the hotel.

5. Even when they travel incognito, Hamas leaders are usually accompanied by at least one person from their security set-up who takes up a room opposite the room occupied by the leader so that they could keep a look-out for any attempt to break into the room of the leader. The fact that no one intervened as the Mossad agents forced their way into the room indicates that either there was collusion by Hamas elements too or the Mossad agents had neutralised the security detail of the Hamas leader before attacking him.

6. The entire story of the covert action will never come out. Particulars of any collusion will remain unknown for some time to come.

7. The Dubai operation of the Mossad was not copy-book perfect, but it was a successful operation in the sense that the agency eliminated a worrying threat to Israel's national security and to the lives of Israeli citizens and other Jewish persons. It was an attack carried out in exercise of the right of self-defence of the Israeli nation and people.

8. Laws of all countries---including India---- provide this right of self-defence and this rigt can be exercised by individuals as well as States.

9. Those opposed to covert actions might argue that despite the repeated resort to covert actions against identified enemies of the State of Israel and its people, Israel has not succeeded in eliminating terrorism and in countering effectively States like Iran which are determined to destroy Israel. Another way of looking at it is that but for such covert actions Israel and the Jewish people might have been forced to their knees by now by their enemies. It is such successful covert actions which have enabled the State of Israel to survive and even flourish.

10. The importance of selective covert actions to ensure the security of a State and its people has been recognised by many States----democratic and authoritarian. Some States----such as the US and Israel---admit that they have a covert action capability. Others don't, but they maintain the capability clandestinely. Pakistan is an example of a State in Asia which has over the years maintained an effective covert action capability for use against India. It has followed the model of other rogue States such as North Korea, Libya, Syria, Iraq of Saddam Hussain and Sudan in using terrorism as a way of waging a covert warfare.

11. Since 1997, India has been a pathetic victim of Pakistan's covert actions waged through different terrorist organisations. Pakistan has been using terrorism as a means of covert action against India since 1981.Between 1981 and 1997, India was retaliating in its own limited manner. The policy of covert retaliation was stopped in 1997 and has been totally discarded since then.

12. None of the Indian Prime Ministers in office since 1997 has had the political will to revert to a policy of at least limited retaliation against the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its terrorist surrogates. The result has been that our national security has been continuously endangered and our people have been dying in their hundreds. When Pakistan, through its intelligence agencies and terrorist surrogates, has been waging a relentless covert warfare against India, we cannot protect the State and the people merely by revamping our counter-terrorism architecture.

13. Unless we create a capability for retaliatory covert actions in a deniable manner and use that capability we will continue to bleed.

14. Between 1981 and 1997, the Prime Ministers in office followed a dual policy of "talk, talk, hit, hit" against Pakistan. They never fought shy of talking to Pakistani leaders and officials. At the same time, they never missed an opportunity to undermine the State of Pakistan covertly in retaliation against its covert actions against India.

15. Since 1997, our policy has been reduced to one of talk, talk and more talk with no retaliation even covertly. Our political leadership and large sections of our bureaucracy have no concept of the importance of covert action in an asymmetric proxy war. That is the tragedy of our country.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)

Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group, Paper No 3675 date: Feb 19, 2010
URL: http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3675.html

Sri Lanka: Arrest of General Fonseka - Comments

General Sarath Fonseka, former Chief of Defence Staff, and the common opposition candidate who contested the presidential poll was arrested in Colombo last night. A summary of answers to questions put by various national and international print and electronic media on February 8 & 9 , 2010 is given in the following paragraphs.

Was General Fonseka’s arrest expected?

Actually the government had taken a series of actions to build up a case against him ever since he announced his intention to contest the presidential poll. The irritation brewing up within the ruling coalition against him turned into hostility after his poll decision. First there were media attempts to blacken his reputation in military procurements made during his tenure as army commander. Then during the run up to the election stories of sleaze were expanded and attacks became personal. After the election results were out, security forces and police were deployed around the hotel where the General was staying ostensibly to search for deserters carrying arms holed up there.


They were allegedly plotting a coup to overthrow President Rajapaksa. There was also a talk of a conspiracy to assassinate the President. His office was raided and his aides arrested. In all three dozen people, mostly retired servicemen, who were helping him have been arrested. His secretary was hounded and 15 army officers were given walking papers for supporting him.

So a strong case of conspiracy to overthrow the government and assassinate the President was in the making. Therefore arrest of Fonseka was not unexpected. But the serious allegations against him and the timing of the arrest, after the parliamentary poll has been scheduled on April 8, does come as a surprise as the action now assumes a political context.

What could be the “real” reason behind his arrest?

While I am not privy to any official information, I think basically the President’s camp probably sees him as a serious political threat – one who could damage the hard won reputation for defeating the LTTE with allegations of war crimes and human rights violations in the conduct of war. This issue has gathered more mass internationally and the government has become extremely sensitive to it. So arresting him would put a clamp on him during the parliamentary poll. And if allegations of conspiracy and plot against the President are proved it would serve the purpose even better.

General’s challenge to the government to arrest him a day earlier probably triggered the process. Having interrogated the detainees, apparently the government has built up enough evidence to back its allegations. So when the General is arraigned before the court when the case comes up there would be enough material to keep him out of circulation. And trying him under Army Act on a very serious charge would make it difficult for him to secure bail.

What do you think of the allegations of conspiracy to overthrow the government and plotting to kill the President?

The serious allegations would warrant severe punishment under the Army Act. The government spokesman has said the General would be tried by a Court Martial. Court Martial proceedings would be faster than civilian courts.

General Fonseka, who had built his reputation as a professional soldier, conspiring to over throw the government and kill the President sounds incredible. Presumably that is why the military spokesman while speaking about the General’s arrest had talked of charging him for “military offences.” In any case the government will have to present a water tight case against him and carry it out in an open manner. So the government will have to present a water tight case against him and carry out the trial in an open manner.

It is doubtful whether the government would do this. As a popular personality will be on trial, if it is carried out openly it would carry more credibility. Indian army had been doing this to ensure transparency. Media access has been provided to the proceedings now underway against Lt General Avadesh Prakash, one of the seven PSOs of the Indian army chief.

General Fonseka by emerging as a challenger to the President’s re-election for a second term has gained global attention. The U.S. and the European Union which had levelled allegations of human rights violations would be watching the proceedings of the court martial closely. The U.S. State Department spokesman commenting on the arrest has emphasised the need for the government to heal the split within Sri Lankan society, and not to exacerbate it. Already UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has appealed to all parties in Sri Lanka and their supporters to show restraint and refrain from violence after the reported arrest of Fonseka.

We can also expect the government to gather evidence on allegations of corruption against the General. His son in law is allegedly involved in this deal.

What will be the impact of the arrest of General Fonseka on the army?

Already loyalty of some of the army personnel had come under cloud over the issue of support to General Fonseka. The sacking of 15 officers including five Generals and two brigadiers carried out earlier would have already created a sense of fear among military personnel. The General's arrest would further increase it. So they would be wary of committing any action that could be construed as anti-government.

Increase in the feeling of insecurity within the armed forces could be an unhappy fall out of the arrest. It could affect the homogeneity of army.

What could be the political impact of the arrest? What happens to the General’s image as a political personality after the arrest?

Politically the arrest substantiates opposition's allegations of witch hunting by the government. General Fonseka’s fortunes were down after his electoral defeat and it was doubtful whether he could have contributed to the sustenance of the JVP-UNP marriage of convenience till the parliamentary elections.

However, after his arrest once again he becomes a focal point for opposition parties to come together during the parliamentary elections. From this point of view, by arresting Fonseka the government have provided some common ground for the opposition to come together against the President. But parliamentary polls are qualitatively and quantitatively different from electing the president as many local and personality factors govern the support of people.

Courtesy: www.southasiaanalysis.org
URL http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cnotes6%5Cnote571.html

Igniting the ‘COLD START’ doctrine

Despite strategies on paper, our capability to face battle on two fronts is far from being achieved.

ARE we ready for a 21st-century war? The Army chief, General Deepak Kapoor’s reported comment on the revision of India’s “cold start” military doctrine to achieve the capability to take on China and Pakistan on two fronts at the same time might tempt us to answer in the affirmative to the above question.

But, as a nation of dreamers, our record in translating ideas into action has not been a happy one. Our well-crafted plans often remain just fine print on paper. Even in matters of national security, we have been lagging in giving life to our strategic concepts.

The Cold Start Doctrine was drawn up in 2004 when the bitter experience of Kargil was fresh in military planners’ minds. The war had laid bare our weaknesses in fighting wars in which terrorism and conventional operations are seamlessly interwoven. It also drove home the real possibility of a confrontation with Pakistan turning into a nuclear one.

The Doctrine focused on multiple offensive strikes against Pakistan, using battle groups of mechanized forces. The Doctrine was designed to cut down mobilization time after the hiccups during Op Parakrama in the wake of the terrorist attack on Parliament.

For any offensive doctrine to succeed, close air support, greater density of mechanized forces, heavier artillery firepower and high mobility are key elements. Most important, a forward-thinking political leadership with the mental strength to give a green signal is the fundamental requirement for pro-active offensive strategy.
Since 2004, the Army and Air Force have carried out a number of joint exercises with troops to test the doctrine. Similar joint exercises with the Navy have also been held. So the three services were on the ball in implementing the Cold Start strategy.

Sadly, the political leadership appeared to be cold to the Cold Start. Either it is not conscious of the key role it has to play in making a success of the doctrine or it is indifferent to the strategic requirements. It is difficult to understand Defence Minister AK Antony’s readiness to apologetically proclaim India’s peaceful intentions instead of chastizing the Pakistani Army for belligerently commenting on the two-front strategy. It was left to Pakistani columnist Ayaz Amir to do that. He said, “If an Indian Army chief were not to envisage the possibility of a two-front war, and mull over the means of waging it, he would deserve to be sacked.”

The Minister’s response brings home the truth that the leadership’s political priorities would always outweigh national security considerations. If the government had been serious about its role as per the 2004 doctrine, the three services would not be having huge backlogs today in their basic tools of trade. They are in bad shape for no fault of their making. In the words of veteran journalist Shekhar Gupta, “The larger state of our armed forces has begun to resemble 1962.”

The complacency seems to be all-pervasive. It is typical of the national attitude to security that it was left to the Comptroller and Auditor General to critically comment about the battle-worthiness of the armed forces!

Though as many as 12 well known defence manufacturers have been blacklisted for corrupt practices, not more than a handful at home have been indicted. Therein hangs a sordid tale of defence procurement. This is taking a toll of our combat readiness more than any strategic plans of adversaries.

The Army is still in the quest for tanks. Its missiles are not even of late 20th-Century vintage. Since 1987, new guns for the artillery have not been procured. Both the projects to manufacture 155 mm ammunition as well as buying 155 mm guns are in limbo. As a result, by 2008 the Army had to make do with just 400 plus Bofors guns as against its long-term plan for 3,600 artillery guns by 2025.We seem to be endlessly short listing weapons for procurement and not going beyond that. Then there is the manpower shortage with nearly 25 per cent deficiency in officers.

In spite of all the hype about the increasing Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean, the Navy is not in happy shape. More than half of India’s submarines are not battle-ready. The CAG says 63 per cent of the submarine fleet would be ready for phase-out by 2012. The radars are too old and too few to provide any credible defence against an air attack. Submarine procurement and production are facing perpetual hiccups. And overall naval strength is at an alarming low of 135 ships!

The Air Force fares no better; from a 45-squadron force it is down to 32 squadrons. It is deficient of 136 fighters. The IAF’s radar acquisition plans have not been cleared due to repeated delays in the tendering process and objections by the CVC on the purchase of Israeli radars has led to a lowering of air defence capabilities. The Air Force’s story of woes seems endless.

The last straw was the report by a group of 13 scientists about the failure of the fusion test (H-bomb) during the Pokhran-II nuclear tests of 1998, contrary to official claims. This has cast grave doubts about our nuclear bomb capabilities. Even the service chiefs have expressed their concern on this.

Defence research and public sector responsible for manufacture of weapons and ammunition have been holy cows of successive governments. It is high time these cows are tethered and milked for accountability and productivity.

The two-front strategy is to handle an emerging strategic scene in which China is increasing its strategic reach in our neighbourhood in Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. And the Pakistani Army is being modernized with American cash with obscurantism having come to stay.

The two-front doctrine is the strategic expression of India’s aspirations as a regional power graduating to a global power status. It envisages short and swift operations. As analyst Subhash Kapila says, “With a nuclear overhang with both Pakistan and China, the Indian military operations to neutralize the Chinese and Pakistani threats has to be fast-paced, facilitated by a high degree of synergy” between the Army, Navy and Air Force. That is why the Army chief has emphasized technology-oriented inputs of C4I2 (this is military acronym for command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, and information technology) for activating the new doctrine.

Twenty-first Century military technology has compressed to minuscule proportions our reaction time in readiness for war. In a nuclear setting, even to survive, nations have much more to do in much less time. We have already wasted too much time; as a result, our two-front strategy is starting with its feet hobbled by outdated mindsets and methodologies, and indifferent political leadership.

But the silver lining is the increasing public awareness on these issues thanks to the media reach and hype. Our battles are here and now with ourselves to give the wherewithal to the armed forces to deliver what they promise.

German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer said, “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident.” It is time we accepted the truth and got ready.
Couresy: GFiles magazine, February 2010, Vol 3, Issue 11
URL http://gfilesindia.com/title.aspx?title_id=80

USA: News in the Making

US more at ease with India's rise than China's ascent

Chidanand Rajghatta says the is more comfortable with the rise of India than it is with the ascent of China, the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2010 has revealed. It recognized ''a more influential role in global affairs'' for India including in the Indian Ocean region and beyond based on its commonalities with the US, while expressing Washington’s concern about the nature of China’s military development and decision-making processes.

The rise of China and India is a prominent theme of the latest QDR, a four-yearly strategic review document that offers a broad outline of US security posture. It jettisons the long-held goal of being able to fight two conventional wars at once (just when India is considering it). At the same time it recognises a new range of threats including
terrorism, the review also spells out US views of the two countries (China and India) which it says will shape the international system in the years to come.

Source: TNN, 3 February 2010, WASHINGTON
URL: http://timesofindia .indiatimes. com/world/ us/US-more- at-ease-with- Indias-rise- than-Chinas- ascent/articlesh ow/5530577. cms

Soviet Lessons From Afghanistan:

Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of Soviet Union, writes on the Afghanistan is in turmoil, with tensions rising and people dying every day. Many of them have nothing in common with terrorists or militants. The government is losing control of its territory: of the 34 provinces, the Taliban controls a dozen. The production and export of narcotics is growing. There is a real danger of destabilization extending to neighboring countries, including the republics of Central Asia as well as Pakistan.

He says: ‘What began after Sept. 11, 2001, as a seemingly appropriate military response aimed at rooting out terrorism could end in a major strategic failure.’…

Source: New York Times NYT February 4, 2010
URL http://www.nytimes. com/2010/ 02/05/opinion/ 05iht-edgorbache v.html?ref= global

Goodbye, America

Shekhar Gupta in his column writes on the talk among global leaders about “exiting”. from Afghanistan, or ‘more accurately, the Af-Pak quicksand.’ This question overshadowed the minds, and discussions, at two global meetings of top leaders last week, the Afghanistan conference in London and the World Economic Forum in Davos. He concludes that the big powers have decided in principle on the issue of whether to exit or not. The questions that now remain are, when, and how. Public opinion in Britain and even in the US is tiring of the war. Clearer indication of this came from a statement made by UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband at the London conference that this war had already gone on longer than World War II…
Source: Indian Express, Feb 06, 2010
URL http://www.indianex press.com/ news/goodbye- america/576354/ 0

Sri Lanka: News in the Making

Time for national reconciliation, Obama tells Rajapaksa
"I urge you to seize this opportunity to provide the leadership that will allow all Sri Lankans to come together and meet their aspirations to live in a country that is rooted in tolerance, respect for human rights, accountability, the rule of law, and freedom of the press- all elements essential for national reconciliation."...
http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/srilanka/Time-for-national-reconciliation/Article1-505688.aspx

EU to suspend Sri Lanka trading privileges over rights: officials
"European ambassadors have taken the decision. The EU Commission's investigation showed Sri Lanka has not demonstrated that it has taken the steps that would allow it to retain or regain the GSP+ status," a European diplomat said...
URL http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iFnW4BVfu72TOhLho15aiaGeXVPw

Russia will give $300 million arms loan to Sri Lanka
Moscow: Russia will give Sri Lanka a $300 million loan to buy arms and dual use equipment from it, an agreement regarding which will be inked during the upcoming visit of president Mahinda Rajapaksa, a top official said today...
URL: http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_russia-will-give-300-million-arms-loan-to-sri-lanka_1343870

Sri Lanka: Emerging Trends after the Presidential Election

Elections always leave their footprints to indicate emerging political and social trends of nations. The just concluded presidential election in Sri Lanka is no exception to this.

The election has proved the limitations of poll forecasts. Even where these are done by unbiased agencies, the impact of ‘swing factor’ in voting preferences affects the accuracy of forecasts. President Mahinda Rajapaksa had always remained the favourite at least among non-Tamil voters. As expected, he swept through some of the traditional opposition strongholds with high margins; this would indicate his lead was beyond the impact of any swing factor. Otherwise he would not have captured 17 of the 22 electoral districts.

The popular vote for the President is perhaps in recognition of his leadership role in ending the 26-year old Tamil insurgency. Probably for the same reason 40.2 per cent of the voters (4,173,185) preferred General Sarath Fonseka, a political novice. It would be reasonable to place relative popularity of the two candidates on this count at 6:4 in favour of Rajapaksa.

During the six months of peace after the war ended, President Rajapaksa could not clean up his administration and improve governance which came under severe criticism during the war. Presumably, the voting public were ready to overlook these aberrations and vote for another term of Rajapaksa’s rule because the General, supported by a jerry-built coalition, could not win their confidence in his political avatar.

If we go merely by numbers, General Fonseka supported by both the UNP and the JVP, secured less votes than the UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe when he contested the last presidential poll without the JVP support. But if we go by the dismal performance of the opposition parties and strong showing of the ruling UPFA in the provincial council elections held before the presidential poll, for a beginner the General’s performance was commendable. Thanks to him, both the opposition parties also probably managed to save their face by putting him up as a common opposition candidate. Otherwise, either of the parties might not have matched General Fonseka’s score.

However, in the north and east where the Tamils are in substantial numbers, votes polled were in favour of General Fonseka. Similarly electorates like Nuwara Eliya, where plantation Tamils are in large numbers, preferred General Fonseka. The General’s Tamil votes were probably more in appreciation of his recognition of Tamil grievances than any other issue.

The runaway victory of Rajapaksa shows the ruling coalition as of now could win a majority in the parliamentary poll. So if Tamils really want to improve the situation they will have to carefully plan their strategy in supporting either of the coalitions. It is going to be a hard choice between pragmatism and emotions.
In the Tamil dominant Northern Provinces barely 20 percent of the eligible voters polled. The displacement of population due to the war, fear of revenge killings, and Tamil apathy to the election in which two architects of the Eelam War were fighting each other, probably reduced the voter turnout. In future elections in the north, we might not see more than 30 per cent voting unless the voters’ lists are updated taking into consideration internal and external migration of Tamil population.

The election in the north and east has shown the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which supported Fonseka, continues to retain its influence over loyal section of Tamils voters. On the other hand Rajapaksa’s votes, particularly in the north, probably represent the limited influence of two Tamil parties – Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP) and the Peoples Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) that had supported him. Similarly, the influence of Tamil Makkal Vidutahali Pulikal (TMVP) led by Pillaiyan in the east could be ephemeral during the parliamentary poll.

The election has exposed the limited reach of SLFP and the UNP among Tamils. They will have to work hard to make inroads into Tamil strongholds in the north. It is doubtful whether either party would gain any advantage by migration of Tamil parties’ leaders to the party ranks. So we can expect the Tamil parties to continue their piggy back ride on them in the parliamentary poll also.

The TNA will face a big challenge in handling the pulls and pressures of parliamentary poll alliances. It has hardly any time to consolidate its position at the grass roots. It will also face more dissent in making hard choices. The marriage of convenience between the UNP and the JVP for the presidential election would be under serious threat as the parliamentary poll nears. There are more chances of it coming undone. This is going to make the options of TNA even more difficult.

Muslim votes continue to be divided between the two main political coalitions. Probably the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) support was useful in helping Fonseka coming on top in the east. Whether it could do so when the opposition is not united in the parliamentary poll remains an open question.

The election has demonstrated the Sinhala- Tamil divide as a hardy perennial in Sri Lanka politics. This cannot be wished away by homilies. With the parliamentary poll around the corner, President Rajapaksa will have to create a sense of trust and security among Tamil population by positive action, particularly as he has been elected by massive Sinhala votes. Presumably this is what prompted the President immediately after the election to talk about his intention to meet Tamil aspirations (including constitutional amendment).

However, four aspects of government conduct during and after the election are disturbing. These are: the personalisation of politics, witch hunting within the government including army, muzzling of free press and disregard for electoral rules of conduct.

It was personalised politics that induced the ‘psychological warfare’ against General Fonseka and key opposition leaders like Mangala Samaraweera. It started with hundreds of armed soldiers and policemen surrounding the hotel in which the General and his family, along with some political leaders were staying. The ‘siege’ for nearly the whole day was show strength to buttress claims of Fonseka plotting a coup or to assassinate President Rajapaksa. It had its impact with the General in turn talking of a government plot to kill him.

It did not end there. The humiliation of the General who led the army to victory six months back continued with a raid on his office and 15 retired army men of his staff were arrested for alleged conspiracy to assassinate President Rajapaksa and his family. The high drama is sure to have sent a clear warning to the opposition leaders not to take those in power lightly. This unhealthy trend could continue during the run up to the parliamentary poll.

There had been strong allegations of interference of ministers and government officials in the poll process. There had also been a number of violations of Election Commissioner’s orders including armed violence, intimidation and misuse of government media during the campaign period. In one such instance Dr. Jayalath Jayawardena MP belonging to the UNP has accused the supporters of Deputy Civil Aviation Minister Sarath Gunaratne of trying to chase him and other UNP members away from the counting centre to create the “necessary environment to rig” the Presidential poll.

After the election, the government has systematically tried to single out those considered as opposition supporters and take action against them. It has carried out the biggest ever purge in the military sacking those considered a ‘direct threat to national security.’ According to media reports 14 military officers including five Major Generals have been issued letters of compulsory retirement. This witch hunt sets a political precedent that could create schism within the armed forces affecting its efficiency and morale in the long term.

Media that had supported the General are also facing the flak. The editor of Lanka, a pro-JVP paper was arrested. The visa of a Swiss reporter, who asked a slightly embarrassing question at a press conference, was withdrawn till the President rescinded the order. The office of the website Lanka e news was sealed to prevent airing of critical comments. These are only a few of such incidents of threat to the media.

As expected, these actions have drawn adverse international attention. Both the U.S. and the European Union have urged the Sri Lankan authorities to investigate reports of "irregularities" during the country’s recent election and ensure the safety of the defeated opponent. Leaders of opposition and civil society have also expressed their serious concerns.

But in the past the government has shown little concern or sincerity in handling complaints of governance and lawless conduct. The ruling coalition and the government have to change their style and create a peaceful environment for conducting the parliamentary poll by their actions. Unless they do this, the credibility of the poll and its conduct could become suspect.

President’s likely actions

The President has to walk the talk to show his readiness to act on three major issues: meeting Tamil aspirations, cleaning up the image of his government, and attend to urgent demands of post war economy. The process of wooing Tamil is going to be tricky as it has to be done without antagonising Sinhala ‘vote banks.’ We can expect the President to increasingly allow free movement to the north, speed up visible development projects and rehabilitation effort in the war ravaged villages, and announce substantive reduction in high security zones occupied by troops. He is also likely to try and get the TNA leaders under his wing, taking advantage of existing differences among them.

After showing the opposition that he was in no mood to ‘forgive and forget,' his political priority would be to gain absolute majority for the UPFA in parliament. However, it is not going to be an easy task as he has to clean up the image of his government. That would require substantive improvement in rule of law, withdrawal of the state of emergency and quick disposal of cases of the LTTE prisoners and suspects held in custody. We can expect him to take a series of measures on these aspects but their outcome could get corroded due to the current atmosphere of confrontation.

Even after six months since war ended, Sri Lanka is yet to gain its full benefit. The $40-billion economy has to be put on its feet. Foreign investments in government securities to the tune of about $ 1.6 billion have been made. Both India and China are involved in upgrading infrastructure. In spite of this, Sri Lanka has a few problems.

High food prices and swelling numbers of unemployed could turn the population restive. The President cannot dish out liberal largesse to the people as he is required to introduce cost cutting measures as agreed upon when the International Monetary Fun granted a loan of $2.6 billion. With their own problems of economic management, both the EU and the U.S. might not be forthcoming to bale out the President, particularly as they have been unhappy with his style of governance and cavalier attitude to their concerns. In such a situation, we can expect the President to lean on both India and China for substantive increase in economic assistance.
Courtesy: www.southasiaanalysis.org
URL http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cnotes6%5Cnote568.html